Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 1, 2024
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A grocery store filled with lots of fruits and vegetables.

Discount grocer tops list of nation's fastest-growing grocers in 2023

 

In 2023, the fastest-growing grocers opened 253 stores and added 8.4 million square feet of new space, with one company’s expansion outdistancing all others. Discount grocer Aldi further solidified its position as the nation’s most aggressive grocer in terms of store expansion, opening 109 locations in 2023, according to JLL’s "2024 Grocery Report." 


A man is kneeling down in a kitchen holding a bowl of avocados.

Chipotle Doubles Venture Fund to $100 Million

 

Chipotle announced Wednesday that it’s doubling its Cultivate Next venture fund to $100 million, boosting its ability to invest in companies that will help accelerate plans to reach 7,000 restaurants in North America.


A grocery outlet is now open in a shopping center.

Grocery Outlet plans to open up to 60 stores in 2024


Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. experienced year-over-year net sales growth of 6.3% to $989.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, the company reported Tuesday in its Q4 earnings report. 


A man in a suit and white shirt is smiling for the camera.

Flynn Group Isn’t up for Sale


Flynn Group—the world’s largest franchisee company—is not up for sale, contradictory to previous reports. Greg Flynn denied the rumors at the annual International Franchise Association Convention in Phoenix on February 19, according to an IFA representative. He spoke during a general session entitled, “Disciplined Execution and a Visionary Mindset Paved the Way for Multi-Unit Franchisee Greatness.”


A large building with the word bloomingdale on it

Macy’s to close 150 nameplate stores; expand off-mall and luxury formats


Macy’s Inc. unveiled a new strategy that includes a much smaller footprint and a big bet on its luxury and beauty brands. The department store giant said it is “focusing resources” by closing approximately 150 underproductive Macy’s locations, including some 50 by the end of 2024, and prioritizing investment in approximately 350 “go-forward” nameplate locations and the continued expansion of small-format stores. In October, Macy’s  said it would open up to 30 small-format, off-mall stores through fall 2025, starting in fall 2024.


A white truck is parked in front of a lowe 's store.

Lowe’s net sales fall 17% in Q4


Dive Brief:


Lowe’s on Tuesday reported fourth-quarter net sales fell about 17% to $18.6 billion from $22.4 billion a year earlier. The home improvement retailer’s prior year Q4 sales included about $1.4 billion from a 53rd week on the calendar and $958 million from the sale of the company’s Canadian retail business during Q1 of last year.


A del taco restaurant with a purple sky in the background.

Franchisors Revamp Restaurants to Meet Drive-thru Demand


After accelerating during the COVID-19 pandemic, the heavy use of restaurant drive-thrus and third-party delivery apps hasn’t waned.As a result of the continued growth, restaurant brands are reassessing the look and function of their buildings. In the last couple of years, franchisors large and small have rolled out new prototypes to meet consumer demand.


The front of a kroger store with a blue sign on it

FTC sues to block Kroger-Albertsons $24.6 billion merger



The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block the largest proposed supermarket merger in U.S. history.The FTC has issued an administrative complaint and authorized a lawsuit in federal court to block the proposed acquisition between The Kroger Company and Albertsons Companies, which was first announced in October 2022 and has been met with increasing regulatory scrutiny. 


Retail Real Estate 2026: Why Some Properties Stay Strong While Others Struggle

By Marc Perlof • February 2, 2026
Retail Real Estate 2026: Why Some Properties Stay Strong While Others Struggle By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy February 2, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed. Retail real estate in 2026 is no longer one market. It has split into clear winners and clear losers. Owners who understand this are protecting value. Owners who do not are feeling pressure. The biggest change is how people spend money when things feel uncertain. Interest rates are higher. Costs are up. Households are more careful. That shift shows up first at the property level. Some retail feels stress faster than others. Lifestyle centers, nightlife areas, entertainment districts, and tourist retail depend on optional spending. When people cut back, visits drop. Sales slow. Tenants push back on rent. Vacancies last longer. This is not a crash. It is a pressure issue tied to spending people can delay. Other retail performs differently. Grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, medical and dental, quick-service food, auto service, and personal care are built around daily habits. People cut wants before needs. That makes income steadier and easier to support in a cautious market. Recent retail market reports show this split clearly. National retail vacancy stayed fairly stable through late 2025, mostly in the mid-5 percent to high-6 percent range, with necessity-based centers performing better than discretionary locations¹. Leasing slowed in 2025, with longer decision times and more rent pushback, especially from non-essential tenants². Buyers are still active, but they are more careful. They now focus on tenant quality, lease length, and operating costs more than rent growth³. What retail owners should focus on right now • Daily-needs tenants reduce risk. Properties with grocery, medical, pharmacy, and quick-service food see more stable rent and fewer concession requests. That helps protect sale price and lender support in slower markets¹. • Grocery-anchored centers sell faster. Buyers still want these assets because traffic is predictable and costs are easier to pass through. These deals tend to fall apart less often³. • Discretionary retail carries pricing risk. Properties tied to optional spending face longer vacancies, rent resistance at renewal, and wider gaps between buyer and seller pricing. Waiting too long to adjust can hurt value, not just cash flow². One thing is becoming clear in early 2026. The market is not pricing retail as one category anymore. It is pricing risk. Two properties with the same income can be worth very different amounts based on tenant mix, lease terms, and rising expenses. Owners who understand this protect equity. Others only see the gap after a buyer or lender points it out. The takeaway is simple. Retail real estate in 2026 is about quality, not hype. Stable income matters. Lease terms matter. Tenant mix matters. Insurance and operating costs matter. Owners who match strategy to how their tenants actually perform stay in control. Owners who rely on old assumptions end up reacting. If you want a clear, property-specific review of how buyers and lenders would view your retail asset today, I can prepare a short market positioning summary. No templates. No guesses. Just how your property would really trade in this market. Ask yourself this. Is your property built around spending people can delay, or spending they rely on every week? #RetailRealEstate2026 #RetailMarketOutlook #EssentialServicesRetail #GroceryAnchoredRetailCenters #DiscretionaryRetailProperties

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • January 30, 2026
Smoothie King plots 90-plus new openings for 2026 The world’s largest smoothie franchise isn’t planning on slowing down its growth after a strong 2025.  Smoothie King says it plans to open more than 90 new store openings in 2026, in addition to launching a targeted franchisee incentive program spanning several key states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and more. Through the program, Smoothie King says it is offering financial incentives to “growth-minded franchisees,” designed to accelerate brand awareness and density in these markets...

Retail Real Estate in 2026: What Commercial Owners Need to Know Right Now

By Marc Perlof • January 26, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy January 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. 2026 is shaping up to be a year where retail property owners need to pay attention. Not to fear. Not to headlines. To real signals in the market. There is more global and domestic uncertainty right now. Conflicts overseas, trade tension, higher government debt, and political changes in the U.S. all affect interest rates, insurance markets, and investor behavior. This does not mean panic. It means owners need clear, reliable information. Here is where the retail market stands today. Local retail remained steady through late 2025. In Los Angeles County, vacancy ranged from about 5.6 to 6.9 percent in the second half of the year¹²³. That tells us demand is still healthy, even as some tenants adjust space needs or renew leases at new rent levels. Leasing activity slowed in some areas. Spaces are taking longer to fill, and asking rents softened slightly as owners and tenants reset pricing². This is a normal market adjustment, not a collapse. On the investment side, commercial real estate transactions increased nationally through mid 2025. Both the number of deals and total dollar volume rose, showing capital is still moving⁵. Buyers are active when pricing reflects today’s risks and returns. This is exactly what I am seeing in live pricing discussions and negotiations right now. Insurance remains one of the biggest issues for retail owners. Property insurance markets became more stable in 2025, and rate increases slowed in some areas. However, insurers are still selective. Coverage terms matter more than ever, especially for properties exposed to wildfire or coastal risk⁴. Insurance costs directly affect net income, lease negotiations, and buyer interest. Retail Outlook for Q1 and Q2 2026 In early 2026, the retail market is likely to stay steady but measured. Vacancy is expected to remain near current levels. Leasing will be deliberate, not rushed. Rents should hold close to where they ended in 2025 as owners and tenants continue to agree on realistic pricing. Capital will remain active for properties with solid income, strong tenant credit, and durable lease terms. Buyers are selective, but they are still moving forward when risk and return are properly aligned. Insurance markets will stay selective in the first half of 2026. Owners need to plan renewals carefully and understand how insurance affects operating costs, tenant negotiations, and future sale value. Here is a simple retail risk check for 2026: • Local vacancy around 6 percent, stable but uneven by location¹ • Leasing takes longer than peak years, making pricing discipline critical² • Capital remains active, but underwriting is conservative⁵ • Insurance coverage is improving in some areas, but terms still matter⁴ Not all retail performs the same. Discretionary-driven destinations like lifestyle centers, nightlife districts, and tourist-focused shopping streets feel more pressure when consumer spending slows. Retail that serves daily needs and essential services tends to perform better during uncertain cycles. The best strategy now is disciplined and data-driven. Focus on tenant credit strength. Protect lease term and income stability. Price based on real market data. Understand insurance risk clearly. This is how value is protected in changing markets. I help retail property owners position assets based on real tenant behavior and real buyer demand. Not headlines. Call or DM me if you want a clear view of how your retail property should be positioned for 2026. How will you adjust your leasing or investment strategy this year based on what the market is actually telling us? #RetailRealEstate #LosAngelesCRE #CommercialRealEstateOutlook #RetailInvestment #CRE2026 #MarcRetailGuy
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