Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 6, 2026
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Economic Snapshot: K-shaped Economy Poses Risks for Commercial Real Estate

The latest economic data paints a robust picture of the U.S. economy, with 130,000 jobs added in January and GDP growing at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the third quarter. Yet this growth was uneven. The data points increasingly to a “K-shaped” economy—one in which higher-income households and capital-intensive sectors continue to grow and spend, while lower-income households face stagnating wages and constrained consumption. This divergence is now responsible for nearly 60 percent of consumer spending...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Abercrombie & Fitch has strong year; to open 30 new stores

Abercrombie & Fitch maintained its momentum in the fourth quarter fueled by another strong performance from Hollister, and marked its 13th consecutive quarter of growth.



The apparel retailer hit a key milestone in 2025, surpassing the $5 billion sales mark for the first time. It also continued to expanding its footprint, growing square footage by 4% year over year. It ended the year with a total of 829 stores...

Modern Raising Cane's restaurant building with a wood-accented exterior, red vertical detail, and an outdoor patio area.

Raising Cane's takes US expansion to the Pacific Northwest 

Raising Cane’s is expanding its fast-food chicken finger concept along the Western U.S. after opening its first restaurant in Seattle last month.



The chicken chain, with headquarters in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, reported a total of more than 950 restaurants in the U.S. and Middle East. It has plans to open a restaurant March 17 in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, with other locations planned for Washington and Oregon later this year...


Blue Ross Dress for Less sign mounted on the white facade of a retail building under a clear blue sky.

Ross Q4 sales jump, cites ‘very strong start’ to spring season; to open 110 stores


Ross Stores Inc. ended its year on a high note with better-than-expected earnings and sales amid traffic gains, and provided an upbeat outlook.

In the earnings statement, Ross CEO Jim Conroy said the company ended the fourth quarter with solid momentum, and “while early, we are encouraged by the very strong start to the spring season..."

A row of fuel pumps under a long blue canopy at a gas station on a sunny day.

Sunoco extends deal streak with acquisition of New York properties

Sunoco bought 48 gas stations and convenience stores in New York as part of its expansion initiative.

The Sunoco Retail division of Sunoco LP acquired the properties from Capitol Petroleum Group, according to trade publication CSP Daily News, citing a statement from a brokerage that worked on the deal. The brokerage, Petroleum Capital and Real Estate, as well as Sunoco and Capitol Petroleum Group, did not respond to CoStar News' requests for comment...

A Target store entrance with red paneled walls, floor-to-ceiling glass windows, and a large red target logo hanging above.

Target reveals turnaround plan — investing $6B in stores, tech and workers


Target Corp.’s sales slump continued in the fourth quarter amid falling revenue and store traffic even as its adjusted earnings easily topped forecasts.



But the discounter, which is looking to turn things around under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, noted that its sales and traffic accelerated in the last two months of the quarter. Fiddelke, who took the reins on Feb. 1, struck a positive regarding the current quarter...

Modern cafe interior with teal chairs, a terrazzo service counter, and a vibrant, patterned wall featuring the name Crumbl.

Schlotzsky’s Drops Fresh Prototype and Updated Branding 

Schlotzsky’s is going back to where it started, and it’s trying to tackle some very 2020s challenges along the way.


The Austin-born sandwich chain, one of seven brands within the GoTo Foods portfolio, is reclaiming its original “deli” identity and rolling out a next-generation prototype designed to be smaller and cheaper to operate. The new box promises an estimated 20–25 percent reduction in operating costs on paper, plus a tighter footprint capped at about 2,100 square feet and an experience that better matches the food quality the brand believes it already delivers...

A corner view of a Firehouse Subs restaurant with a tan exterior, red tiled roof, and large glass windows.

Here are the restaurants Burger King’s owner is adding. Hint: They’re not Burger Kings.


Restaurant Brands International is looking to fuel its growth by opening 1,800 restaurants a year by 2028, driven by its Popeyes, Firehouse Subs and Tim Hortons chains rather than its banner brand, Burger King.

Miami-based RBI, parent of the lagging quick-service hamburger chain, detailed its expansion strategy during an Investor Day event at its headquarters Thursday. The plan calls for accelerated restaurant openings...


A Floor & Decor store exterior featuring white and gray walls with red signage and a white van parked in front.

Floor & Decor to open 20 stores in 2026; makes Staten Island debut

Floor & Decor Holdings continues its national expansion.



The specialty retailer of hard surface flooring and related accessories for homeowners and professionals plans to open 20 warehouse stores in 2026. The new outposts include Floor & Decor’s second location in New York City, in the borough of Staten Island, which opened its doors in late February...

A large, gray outdoor sign displaying the logo and text

TJX Q4 beats estimate, Q1 off to ‘strong start;' to open 146 new stores


The TJX Companies ended its fiscal year on a strong note, with better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and sales and annual revenue that surpassed the $60 billion mark for the first time.



The off-price powerhouse said it’s off to a “strong start" in its first quarter, but offered a softer-than-expected outlook. On the earnings call, TJX executives said the company expects to open 146 net new stores in 2026, which would bring its year-end total to well over 5,300 locations. It also plans to execute more than 540 remodels...

By Marc Perlof August 28, 2026
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July Prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose slightly in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge.  The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses as its preferred forecasting tool, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Both were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus...
By Marc Perlof August 24, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 August 17, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A tenant asks for a $100,000 tenant improvement allowance. The landlord thinks the request is unreasonable. The tenant thinks it is necessary to open the business. Who is right? Possibly both. The problem is that landlords and tenants often look at tenant improvement allowances, commonly called TI, from different points of view. The tenant sees money needed to build and open the business. The landlord sees money being invested into a property and a lease. Both sides may be looking at the same $100,000 but thinking about it very differently. The TI amount matters, but it should not be negotiated by itself. Rent, lease term, annual increases, free rent, tenant strength, guaranties, options, and TI are all connected. The real question for an owner is not simply, “How much TI am I giving?” It is, “What am I receiving in return?” The Tenant Sees the Cost of Opening Opening a retail business can require a large investment before the first customer walks through the door. Depending on the business and condition of the space, the tenant may need to pay for construction, equipment, signs, permits, inventory, employees, and marketing. From the tenant’s point of view, the TI allowance helps reduce the cash needed to open. That is why the tenant may focus heavily on the TI amount. The landlord, however, has a different concern. The Landlord Is Investing Capital For the landlord, TI is real money going into the lease. The owner should ask what the property receives in return for that investment. Is the tenant signing a longer lease? Is the rent strong? Are there annual increases? Is the tenant financially strong? Is there a guaranty? Will the improvements have value if the tenant leaves? The same $100,000 TI allowance can create very different risks. A $100,000 investment into a strong tenant signing a long term lease may make financial sense. The same investment into a tenant with limited financial strength, a weak guaranty, and improvements with little value to the next tenant may be much riskier. The amount is the same. The investment is not. TI, Rent, and Free Rent Are Connected A lease negotiation often includes several economic items. A tenant may ask for TI, lower rent, free rent, or some combination of all three. An owner should look at the total package because each option affects the property differently. TI requires capital upfront. Free rent delays cash flow. Lower rent can reduce NOI throughout the lease and may affect the property’s value. This does not mean one structure is always better. The answer depends on the lease term, rent increases, tenant strength, cost of construction, cost of vacancy, and the owner’s available capital. The mistake is negotiating each item as if it has nothing to do with the others. A Simple Example Assume a tenant is negotiating a 10 year lease and offers the landlord two choices: Option 1: $100,000 in TI with $10,000 per month in starting base rent. Option 2: No TI with $9,000 per month in starting base rent. At first, Option 2 may look better because the landlord keeps the $100,000. But the $1,000 monthly rent difference equals $12,000 per year. Before considering rent increases or other lease terms, the lower starting rent creates $120,000 less base rent over 10 years. There is another issue. Lower NOI may also affect the property’s value when a buyer underwrites the income. This does not automatically make Option 1 the better deal. The owner still needs to consider the timing of the $100,000 investment, the tenant’s financial strength, default risk, rent increases, the value of the improvements, and whether the owner has the cash available. The point is simple: saving money on TI does not automatically create the better financial result. Free Rent Is Also Part of the Investment Free rent can also be misunderstood. A tenant may view free rent as time to complete construction, hire employees, stock inventory, and open the business before paying full rent. For the landlord, it is income that is not being collected. Assume the monthly base rent is $10,000 and the tenant receives four months of free base rent. That is $40,000 in base rent the landlord does not collect. Depending on the lease, the tenant may still pay NNN expenses during the free rent period, or those expenses may also be reduced or delayed. The details matter. An owner who gives $100,000 in TI and $40,000 in free rent is making a larger investment than the TI number alone suggests. Leasing commissions, landlord work, and other concessions can increase the total investment further. This does not mean free rent is bad. It means the owner should measure the full cost of the lease package. More TI Should Be Supported by the Lease If an owner is being asked to invest more capital, the rest of the lease should support that investment. That may mean a longer lease term, stronger rent, annual increases, better security, a stronger guaranty, or other terms that reduce risk. If the tenant wants more TI, more free rent, lower rent, limited guaranties, and flexible options, the owner should ask whether the total package still makes financial sense. Occupancy alone does not make a lease a good investment. A Simple Payback Test One useful screening test is how long it takes the owner to recover the total lease investment. That should include TI, free rent, leasing commissions, landlord work, and other concessions. As a rough guide, an owner may want the total lease investment recovered within the first 25% to 40% of the firm lease term. On a 5 year lease, that usually means about 1 ½ to 2 years. On a 10 year lease, that may mean about 2 ½ to 4 years. This is not a perfect rule, but it is a useful warning sign. If most of the lease term is needed just to recover the upfront investment, the owner may be taking too much risk. Look at the Whole Deal The highest rent does not always create the best deal. A tenant offering higher rent may require more TI, more free rent, a larger leasing commission, or more landlord work. Another tenant may offer slightly lower rent but require much less capital and have stronger financials. That is why lease negotiations should be viewed as one investment decision, not a collection of separate deal points. Final Thought Landlords and tenants often misunderstand TI allowances because they are looking at the same money from different sides. The tenant is trying to reduce the cash needed to open. The landlord is deciding how much capital to invest and what income, security, and long-term value will be received in return. Before agreeing to or rejecting a TI request, owners should ask one question: What is the total investment I am making, and what am I receiving in return? If a tenant offered you a choice between higher TI and higher rent or no TI and lower rent, would you know which deal creates the better result for your property? In next week’s blog, How TI Decisions Affect Retail Property Value and Buyer Underwriting , we will look at how buyers review tenant strength, remaining lease term, future TI costs, lease rollover, and the durability of a property’s NOI. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailLeasing #TenantImprovements #TIAllowance #CommercialLeasing #MarcRetailGuy Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.
By Marc Perlof August 21, 2026
Retail sales post biggest drop since 2025 as spending momentum fades U.S. retail sales sank to their lowest in over a year in July as consumers pulled back on online shopping and vehicle sales. Retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, fell 0.6% in July from the previous month in the biggest decline since May 2025, according to the Census Bureau data released Friday. Excluding gasoline and auto, retail sales dropped 0.2%...
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