Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • December 19, 2025
A banner for weekly commercial real estate news recap
A blurred image of a city street with people walking down it.

Here are the best-performing retail markets of 2025

U.S. retail real estate delivered another year of resilience in 2025, marked by a steady balance between supply and demand, despite pressure from increased store closings.



Under the surface, market-by-market performance varied more than in any year since the pandemic, as the disparate effect from store closures and diverging demographic trends created a larger gap between the winners and losers...


A blurry picture of a clothing store with clothes on display.

Dollar General lifts outlook on strong Q3; to open 450 stores, remodel 4,250 in 2026

Dollar General Corp. reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for its third quarter amid rising store traffic. 

Looking ahead, the deep discounter said it plans to open approximately 450 stores (and about 10 locations in Mexico) in fiscal 2026. That’s down from the estimated 575 new stores (and up to 15 stores in Mexico) it’s on track to open this year... 


A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

Holiday Sales Climb As November Spending Holds Steady


Retailers appear to be on pace for a solid 
holiday season, reports GlobeSt. November sales rose 4.53% compared to the same time last year, keeping pace with expectations from the National Retail Federation. While spending only edged up 0.12% from October, the annual increase suggests consumers are spending strategically heading into the holidays...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

L.L.Bean details store expansion for 2026 — here’s where

L.L.Bean is accelerating its retail expansion as it expands its brand to new markets.

The outdoor apparel and gear retailer plans to open eight stores in 2026, including its first-ever locations in Alabama and Tennessee (locations listed at end of article). It plans to further accelerate its expansion in 2027, with an additional eight to 10 outposts, including first-time stores in new markets in the Midwest and Southeast...

A person carrying an orange shopping basket while walking through a supermarket aisle filled with products.

4 things retailers need to know about shoppers in 2026

Global sales and marketing agency Acosta Group released four consumer predictions for 2026, pointing to increased demand for personalization, transparency and innovation across the retail and foodservice sectors.



Company officials said shifting lifestyles and rapid advances in technology are reshaping how people shop and what they expect from brands. “Technology and evolving consumer lifestyles continue to reshape the shopping experience, as do the expectations, priorities and values driving purchases,” said Colin Stewart, executive vice president of business intelligence at Acosta Group...

A Netflix House building with a vibrant, character-filled mural and a striking, bright red geometric entryway.

Can Netflix Help Save the American Mall?

You can spot the telltale red hue from several parking lots away as you approach the mall. Netflix Red — the color millions of Americans see each night before dozing off — is splashed on the side of the King of Prussia mall in the Philadelphia suburbs. It marks the portal to Netflix House, the streaming entertainment company’s new permanent brand activation/movie theater/retail outlet, which opened last month...

Bar chart comparing 2025 quarterly foot traffic for Starbucks (purple) and Dunkin’ (teal) against 2024 levels.

Placer.ai: Starbucks, Dunkin' visits rise in Q3

Placer.ai noted that its weekly data for the two chains offers insights into how seasonal offerings fuel traffic. Starbucks’ bear-shaped (Bearista) cup launch – which happened on the same day as the holiday menu rollout – proved to be a major traffic driver, driving visits up 11.9% year over year during the week. The strong visit trends continued the following week with a 6.2% year over year increase, helped by a strong “Red Cup Day” performance...

A street-level view of a white multi-story building featuring an outdoor cafe with red awnings on a tree-lined corner.

Private Investors Fuel 2025 Growth In Single-Tenant Retail Market


After sluggish activity in 2023 and 2024, the US STNL retail market experienced a notable resurgence in 2025, reports Marcus&Millichap. Transactions rose 18% and dollar volume 14% in 2025, showing improved alignment between single-tenant retail buyers and sellers...



A tall white water tower with

SpaceX launches first Starlink retail store; AI infrastructure startup Fermi loses construction funding; Fed confirms regional presidents


Elon Musk’s SpaceX is launching into the nation’s retail game with its first in-person location for its internet provider, Starlink.

Tucked into the Nebraska Crossing shopping center in Gretna, Nebraska, the inaugural Starlink store sells its Starlink Kit, alongside Starlink-branded merchandise, according to an X user that visited the store, which apparently counts footwear maker Crocs as a neighbor...

A person in a black t-shirt works behind the counter of a modern coffee shop with white walls and a chalkboard menu.

Quick-Service Expansion Fuels US Retail Leasing Growth

Restaurants, bars, and coffee shops are playing a pivotal role in retail real estate’s post-pandemic recovery, reports Colliers. Over the past 12 months, these tenants accounted for roughly 20% of all new retail leasing. They have become a critical driver of foot traffic and absorption in shopping centers nationwide.



Even in the face of inflation, Americans are prioritizing dining out. Retail spending at restaurants and coffee shops exceeded $100B in July 2025, representing a nearly 50% jump from pre-pandemic levels...

By Marc Perlof • November 2, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 November 2, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. One of the biggest risks to a retail property is not always one owner making a bad decision. It is multiple owners failing to make a decision at all. When family members, business partners, or other co-owners delay action, the cost can show up through lost income, higher expenses, missed opportunities, weaker financing, or a lower sale price. Retail properties are often owned by siblings, spouses, business partners, LLC members, family offices, trusts, or investment groups. Each owner may have a different financial goal, timeline, and tolerance for risk. Disagreement is normal. The larger problem is having no clear process for turning disagreement into a decision. Even if you own the property by yourself today, these same decisions often become the responsibility of a spouse, children, successor trustee, or other heirs in the future. A clear decision process today can help prevent confusion later. What Do Multiple Owners Commonly Miss? Many ownership groups assume waiting is the safest choice when they cannot agree. They delay a lease decision, postpone repairs, wait to refinance, or hold off on selling until everyone feels comfortable. That may reduce conflict in the moment, but it does not stop the property from changing. Leases move closer to expiration. Deferred maintenance grows. Financing terms and buyer demand can change. Waiting may feel neutral, but its financial effect rarely is. Good properties are often held back by poor decision processes, not poor real estate. The issue becomes harder when each owner defines success differently. One partner may want monthly income. Another may want to sell and reinvest. One sibling may want to keep the property because it has been in the family for decades, while another may need cash for retirement or other obligations. None of these goals are automatically wrong. The ownership group still needs to decide which goal should guide the property’s current strategy. Why Do Ownership Groups Delay Important Decisions? Experience does not remove emotion, fear, or personal pressure. An owner may understand leasing and property values but still resist a sale because the property belonged to a parent. Another may reject a reasonable lease because the proposed rent is below what the space achieved years earlier. Another common reason for delay is the belief that retail property values will continue increasing over time. Many properties have appreciated over long periods, but that does not automatically make waiting the best financial decision. While ownership waits, leases age, capital needs grow, financing changes, and buyer demand shifts. A property’s future value depends on much more than appreciation alone. The better question is not, “Will this property be worth more someday?” It is, “Will waiting create a better overall financial result than acting today?” Owners may also delay because they want to avoid regret. They worry that selling now could mean missing a higher price later, or that completing an improvement could waste money. That fear can cause repeated delays while income, expenses, tenant risk, and market conditions continue to change. The goal is not to make a perfect decision. It is to make the best available decision based on the property’s current income, condition, financing, leases, marketability, and ownership objectives. How Can Indecision Affect Property Value? Property value is tied closely to income, risk, and buyer confidence. If ownership delays a lease renewal, buyers may underwrite more vacancy risk. If repairs are postponed, buyers may reduce pricing for future capital costs. If owners cannot agree on a sale strategy, the property may remain exposed to tenant rollover, changing financing conditions, or new competition. Indecision can also weaken negotiations. A tenant may recognize that the owners are not aligned. A buyer may question whether the group can approve terms, respond to due diligence, or close on schedule. A lender may require clear authority before moving forward with refinancing. The cost may not appear as one large loss. It often shows up through additional vacancy, higher repair costs, reduced leverage, lost rent, or a weaker offer. Over time, those smaller consequences can materially reduce value. What Should the Ownership Group Decide First? The first decision is not whether to sell, refinance, lease, improve, or hold. It is agreeing on the ownership group’s primary objective. Is the priority current cash flow, long term appreciation, preserving the property for the next generation, reducing risk, or preparing for a sale within a defined period? Once that objective is clear, the group can compare each option using the same standard. A lease proposal can be measured by its effect on NOI, flexibility, and value. A capital improvement can be evaluated based on cost, expected rent, tenant demand, and sale impact. A sale can be reviewed based on net proceeds, taxes, timing, and reinvestment options. Without a shared objective, every discussion becomes a debate over personal preferences. With a shared objective, the group can focus on what best supports the investment. Real Deal Insight I recently advised a family that owned a retail property through multiple siblings. One wanted to sell, another wanted to continue collecting income, and another wanted to wait because they believed the property’s value would continue increasing. Before discussing pricing or marketing, I helped the ownership group compare the financial consequences of each option, including projected income, future capital needs, lease rollover, holding costs, and the risks of delay. Once everyone reviewed the same information, the discussion shifted from individual opinions to the property’s investment objectives. That allowed the group to make an informed decision based on facts instead of assumptions. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners If your property has multiple owners, start by defining the group’s main investment objective and expected holding period. Each owner should understand whether the current goal is income, growth, preservation, redevelopment, refinancing, or sale. Then decide how major property decisions will be reviewed. The group should know who gathers the information, who has authority, what requires a vote, and how long the group has to respond. Governance and legal issues should be reviewed with the appropriate attorney, CPA, or other licensed advisor. The goal is not more meetings. It is a process that allows the group to decide before delay limits the available options. Owner Self-Assessment If your ownership group had to decide today whether to renew a major tenant, complete a capital improvement, refinance, or sell, would every owner agree on the property’s main objective and how the decision should be made? Final Takeaway Multiple owners do not need to agree on everything, but they need a clear process for making decisions before delay reduces income, options, or value. In next week’s blog, “The Hidden Cost of Waiting: How Decision Delays Reduce Property Value,” I will explain how indecision can affect lease negotiations, repairs, financing, buyer interest, and property value. If your retail property has multiple owners, I can help your group compare the financial impact of holding, leasing, improving, refinancing, or selling before indecision limits the available choices. The quality of a retail property’s decisions often depends less on the property itself and more on the process the owners use to make those decisions. Is your ownership group protecting the property by waiting, or is waiting quietly becoming the most expensive decision? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #PropertyOwners #FamilyPartnership #BusinessPartners #FamilyOffice #InvestmentProperty #ShoppingCenters #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof • October 30, 2026
Tractor Supply Q3 sales rise 5.1%; to moderate new store openings Tractor Supply Company delivered third-quarter earnings and sales that beat analyst expectations and said it was gaining share against most categories and metrics even as its customers remain cautious. On the company’s earnings call, CEO Hal Lawton said that elevated interest rates and reduced housing mobility are weighing on property improvements and larger projects. Pet ownership headwinds, particularly new pet acquisition, continue to affect demand in certain categories...
By Marc Perlof • October 28, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A lease guaranty can become less useful if the tenant changes entities, the guaranty expires, or a later agreement releases a guarantor. That can affect your income security, refinancing options, and property value. The main owner decision is whether the guaranty still supports your planned hold, refinance, renewal, or sale. Why Should You Review a Lease Guarantee Every Few Years? Many owners review the lease when they buy the property and do not examine the guaranty again until there is a tenant problem or planned sale. During that time, the tenant may be acquired, reorganized, assigned to another entity, or operating under a guaranty that is capped, reduced, or approaching expiration. A review every few years can help you identify those issues while you still have time to respond. Annual Lease Guarantee Review Checklist 1. Confirm the Current Tenant and Every Guarantor Start with the exact legal name of the tenant currently responsible for the lease. Then identify every company or individual that signed a guaranty. Do not rely on the brand name displayed at the property. The company on the sign may not be the legal tenant or the entity supporting the rent. Confirm whether the guaranty comes from the national parent ompany, a subsidiary, an affiliate, a franchise operator, a location-specific LLC, an individual, or more than one guarantor. 2. Check What the Guaranty Covers and When It Ends A signed guaranty may not cover every lease obligation for the entire lease term. Determine whether it is full, capped, reduced over time, limited to certain lease years, or restricted to specific obligations. It may cover base rent but exclude additional rent, property expenses, repair obligations, or legal costs. Compare the guaranty term with the remaining lease term. Do not assume that a lease extension automatically extends the guaranty. 3. Review Later Documents and Ownership Changes The original lease and guaranty may have been changed by later documents. Review amendments, extensions, assignments, assumption agreements, landlord consents, estoppel certificates, ownership change notices, and any guarantor releases or replacements. A tenant may continue using the same brand while the legal tenant, ownership structure, or guarantor changes behind the scenes. When the relationship among the tenant, guarantor, parent company, and affiliates is unclear, request an organizational chart or entity structure. The chart can explain how the companies are connected, but the lease and guaranty documents still determine who is legally responsible. Qualified legal counsel should confirm unclear obligations. 4. Review the Guarantor’s Current Financial Support A guaranty is only as useful as the company or person behind it. Depending on your lease rights and the information available, review current financial information, rent payment history, operating locations, recent closures, ownership changes, and whether the guarantor still appears to own meaningful assets. The goal is not to complete a full credit analysis. It is to determine whether the support behind your rent is still consistent with what you believed when you bought the property or negotiated the lease. 5. Compare the Guaranty with Your Ownership Plan The value of a guaranty depends partly on what you plan to do with the property. If you expect to hold for several years, determine whether the guaranty lasts through your planned ownership period. If you think you are going to refinance, renew, or sell, consider whether the guaranty will still provide meaningful support at that time. You should also consider what happens if the tenant leaves. Contract rent, market rent, vacancy downtime, leasing commissions, tenant improvement costs, repairs, and replacement demand can all affect NOI, capital needs, and net sale proceeds. The central question is whether the guaranty, the underlying real estate, or both support your next major ownership decision. Owner Self Assessment Could you clearly explain who guarantees your largest tenant’s rent, what the guaranty covers, when it ends, and whether it still supports your ownership plan? Reviewing your lease guaranty every few years can help you identify income, financing, vacancy, and value risks before they limit your options. Contact me for the expanded Retail Lease Guarantee Review Checklist . It includes a more detailed document list, guarantor review questions, financial and ownership checks, vacancy and replacement cost considerations, and a one page owner summary you can use before a refinance, renewal, hold, or sale decision. Are you relying on a guaranty that will still provide meaningful support when you refinance, renew the lease, or sell the property? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #NetLease #LeaseGuarantee #CorporateGuarantee #TenantCredit #PropertyValue #RetailInvesting #InvestmentSales #MarcRetailGuy #MarcPerlof
More Posts