Retail Real Estate Is Shifting Fast: What Smart Owners Must Do Before 2026 Hits

Marc Perlof • December 8, 2025

By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy

December 8, 2025


If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you.


In uncertain markets, retail property owners feel the pressure first. Daily swings in interest rates, consumer confidence, and capital flows make it hard to predict what comes next. The challenge is simple: volatility throws doubt over every decision. The action you take today determines your cash flow tomorrow. And the result can be a stronger, more resilient investment position if you know where to move.


Right now, investors are navigating mixed economic signals. Retail sales grew 3.9% year-over-year in Q3, yet borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the pre-2022 cycle¹. Inflation is at a 3.0% annual rate, but pricing remains sticky in service categories². These contradictions create hesitation for many owners. The smart operators don’t freeze. They pivot. They tighten operations, sharpen underwriting, and prepare their assets for the moment clarity returns.


Here’s what the most experienced ownership groups are doing:
• Stress testing rents, renewals, and expense loads using conservative economic assumptions³
• Re-underwriting tenant credit and evaluating exposure to weaker retail categories
• Focusing on assets in trade areas with above-average household income growth³
• Front-loading maintenance and capital planning to preserve NOI predictability
• Positioning properties for refinancing when spreads tighten and lenders re-enter the market³


Data points worth watching:
Retail vacancy nationwide is hovering around 4.3%-5.8%⁴.
Investment sales volume is down 35% year-over-year, but cap rates widened only modestly, showing continued buyer appetite for quality⁴.


When markets are noisy, the winners keep discipline. They stay focused on fundamentals that never go out of style: tenant quality, location strength, and consistent reporting. Volatility rewards the prepared, not the passive.


If you want clarity on how today’s market impacts the value of your specific property, I can break it down with precision. Call or DM me for more information.


What strategic move are you avoiding today that could protect your property’s value 

tomorrow?


#RetailRealEstate #CREInvesting #MarketInsights #NetLease #CommercialProperty

Disclaimer

This post is for information only. It is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Always check with a licensed professional before making decisions.



Footnotes

¹ https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
² https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
³ https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/real-estate/articles/commercial-real-estate-outlook.html
⁴ https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-retail-figures-q3-2025





© 2025 Marc Perlof Group. All rights reserved.

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