Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • December 5, 2025
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CRE Lending Rebounds as Banks Navigate Distress Risks

According to Bisnow, banks are reentering the commercial real estate market after a multi-year pullback. Loan origination volumes hit $227B in the first nine months of 2025. That marks an 85% jump over last year and is nearly back to 2019 levels, according to Newmark.

Multifamily assets led the surge. These properties received about half of the loans originated in Q2. Even the office sector—largely avoided in recent years—is seeing renewed lending activity...

A blurry picture of a clothing store with clothes on display.

Chicken wars heat up with latest Raising Cane’s expansion

Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers is ending the year with a surge of new stores.



The Plano, Texas-based chain said it plans to open 14 restaurants across the country in December, bringing its brick-and-mortar presence to more than 950 locations. There has been “a steady rhythm of grand openings throughout 2025” as Raising Cane’s “continues to grow its national footprint,” according to the company. It will have rolled out nearly 100 restaurants this year, according to a spokeswoman for the chain...

A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

CoStar: Retail vacancy rates to rise in first half of 2026

Retail construction starts have fallen sharply amid rising costs.



That’s according to a forecast from CoStar, a global provider of online real estate marketplaces company, information and analytics in the property markets. Following positive demand and a slowdown in store closures during the third quarter of 2025, the near-term U.S. retail outlook includes a rise in vacancy rates through the first half of 2026, peaking under 4.4% in the latter half of the year...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Papa Johns to open 52 locations across mid-Atlantic

Papa Johns plans to open 52 restaurants in the next five years across greater Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., through a franchisee as the global pizza chain reduces its percentage of corporate ownership.

Papa John's International, a chain that does business as Papa Johns and calls itself the world's third-largest pizza delivery company, said another franchisee took ownership of 85 of its shops around the mid-Atlantic region. The chain, based in Atlanta, Georgia, and Louisville, Kentucky, has about 6,000 restaurants in roughly 50 countries and territories...

El Pollo Loco restaurant exterior at dusk, featuring a red and orange striped accent wall and floor-to-ceiling windows.

How Passion and Purpose Are Fueling El Pollo Loco’s Next Chapter

El Pollo Loco CEO Liz Williams had been a fan of the brand years before becoming part of the team. 


She lives in Southern California, where the fast casual is based. The executive also previously worked for Taco Bell, which has a corporate office minutes away from El Pollo Loco’s Support Center. 

When Williams received the call to consider the opportunity, she had the same question on her mind as everyone else...

A person pushes a cart along the sidewalk of a street lined with storefronts featuring green trim and large windows.

Retail Rebound Drives Discount Store Expansion Nationwide


After a slow start to 2025 with bankruptcies and weak demand, retailers rebounded strongly in the third quarter, reports WSJ. According to CoStar, tenants absorbed 5.5M more SF than they vacated—a sharp contrast to earlier quarters when closures outpaced openings.


The retail vacancy rate remained tight at 4.3%, thanks in part to minimal new construction. With few new builds in the pipeline, expanding retailers are increasingly snapping up second-generation space left behind by struggling brands...

A Dollar Tree store exterior with a large green sign in the foreground under a clear blue sky.

Dollar Tree posts strong Q3 on heels of ‘record’ Halloween sales, lifts guidance

Dollar Tree Inc. reported an upbeat third quarter that beat Street estimates and raised its full-year earnings outlook as its multi-price format continues to attract more higher-income shoppers.



On the company's earnings call, CEO Mike Creedon said that Dollar Tree had 3 million more households shop with the chain during the third quarter of this compared to last year.


“Approximately 60% of these incremental shoppers came from high-income households, those earning over $100,000," he told analysts...


Storefront of an American Eagle Outfitters with dark wood paneling, an eagle logo, and interior clothing displays.

American Eagle sales rise on strong performance by Aerie; raises Q4 outlook


American Eagle Outfitters Inc. sustained its momentum during the third quarter as the company delivered earnings and “record” sales that topped Wall Street expectations.



The apparel retailer also raised its full-year forecast and sounded a confident note about the holiday season, saying its “strong momentum” had continued into the fourth quarter...

By Marc Perlof June 19, 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady but signals possible hike before year’s end US stock markets dropped on Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled a possible rate hike before the end of the year. The Fed was widely expected to keep rates at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, where they have remained since December. The decision was unanimously supported by the Fed’s voting committee.  “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East,” the Fed’s open market committee said in the statement...
By Marc Perlof June 15, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 June 15, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. In a buyer’s market, pricing discipline matters more than optimism. Retail property owners who understand how buyers think during weaker markets usually protect more value than owners who continue pricing based on past market conditions. When buyers gain leverage, they become more selective, move slower, and focus much more on risk. That changes how retail properties are priced, negotiated, and sold. In the previous article, “When to Adjust Price vs Hold Firm on Your Retail Property,” I discussed how owners should interpret buyer behavior, pricing feedback, and negotiation pressure once a property hits the market. What Changed What happens in a buyer’s market? In a buyer’s market, buyers gain more negotiating power because there are fewer active buyers compared to the number of properties for sale. Investors know they have more options, which changes how they negotiate. That usually slows down transactions. Buyers take longer to make decisions, ask more questions during due diligence, and review future risks more carefully before making offers. This is especially true for NNN properties, shopping centers, strip centers, and multitenant retail properties where buyers are closely reviewing tenant quality, how soon tenants may need to renew their leases, property repairs that still need to be completed, and future operating expenses. Why are buyers becoming more cautious? Buyers are becoming more careful because the margin for error is smaller today. Higher interest rates, more expensive financing, rising insurance costs, and economic uncertainty are causing investors to focus more on protecting themselves from future problems. Instead of focusing mostly on upside potential, buyers are asking: Will the tenants remain stable? Can rents hold up if the economy slows? Will future expenses increase faster than income? Will future buyers still want this property several years from now? That mindset affects pricing directly. Why It Matters Why do pricing mistakes hurt more in buyer driven markets? In buyer driven markets, aggressive pricing can reduce activity quickly. When buyers believe a property is overpriced, many simply move on instead of negotiating. That can create a difficult cycle for sellers. Limited activity often leads to longer time on market, weaker leverage, and growing buyer concerns over time. Buyers also become more aggressive once they believe a seller may eventually lower pricing. However, that assumption is not always correct. Some retail property owners are financially stable, are not highly motivated to sell, and are willing to wait if pricing does not reflect the property’s long term value. What concerns are buyers focused on most? Buyers today are closely reviewing anything that could create future problems. This includes: short lease terms property repairs that still need to be completed relying too heavily on one tenant for income weak tenant sales rising operating expenses poor common area maintenance (CAM) recovery structures older building systems future repair costs Even if a property is performing well today, buyers may still lower their pricing if they believe future risks are increasing. That is why clean, stable, and predictable retail properties are usually performing much better than properties with uncertainty or operational problems. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Should you lower pricing quickly in a buyer’s market? Not automatically. Owners should avoid repeatedly lowering pricing out of frustration or fear. Frequent price cuts can weaken buyer confidence and make sellers appear desperate. Instead, pricing adjustments should be based on consistent feedback from qualified buyers. How do you reduce buyer fear? In buyer driven markets, reducing uncertainty becomes extremely important. Owners should review anything that could create concerns for buyers. This includes how organized the leases, financial records, and property information are, as well as any repairs that still need to be completed. Buyers will also pay close attention to lease expiration dates, common area maintenance charges and reimbursements, NNN expense responsibilities, lease options, rent increases, guarantor strength, and who is responsible for major items such as the roof, HVAC system, and parking lot. The easier it is for buyers to understand the property and its future risks, the more confidence they usually have during negotiations. When might waiting make more sense than selling? Not every market is ideal for selling. In some situations, extending leases, improving tenant quality, resolving deferred maintenance, increasing NOI, or waiting for financing conditions to improve may create better long term results than selling immediately. That does not mean owners should avoid selling in weaker markets. It means owners should understand whether they are selling from a position of strength or reacting emotionally to market uncertainty. What should sellers focus on most? The goal in buyer driven markets is not simply attracting offers. The goal is building buyer confidence while protecting leverage as much as possible during negotiations. Owners who reduce uncertainty, position their properties correctly, and respond strategically to buyer concerns usually perform much better than owners who rely only on aggressive pricing. Real Deal Insight We are beginning to see buyers usually lower what they are willing to pay when they see uncertainty in today’s retail market. Properties with organized financials, stable tenants, and fewer future concerns are consistently attracting stronger pricing and smoother negotiations. Owner Self Assessment If buyers reviewed your property today, would they see stable long term income or future problems they need to price into the deal? If you are considering selling and want to understand how buyers would likely evaluate your property in today’s market, reach out directly. I will walk you through how investors are reviewing pricing, lease risk, operating expenses, and future value before you make a decision. Are you positioning your property to reduce buyer fear or unintentionally increasing it? In the next article, “How to Price Retail Property in a Seller’s Market,” we will discuss how strong buyer demand changes negotiation strategy, pricing leverage, and competitive bidding environments. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.  #RetailRealEstate #NNN #ShoppingCenters #StripCenters #CommercialRealEstate #InvestmentSales #CapRates #RetailProperty #LosAngelesCRE #1031Exchange
By Marc Perlof June 12, 2026
Inflation tops 4% for the first time in 3 years on spike in gasoline prices Soaring gasoline prices, triggered by the U.S. war with Iran, have pushed inflation to its highest level in more than three years. A report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed consumer prices in May were up 4.2% from a year ago. That's the biggest annual increase since April of 2023. By contrast, the Labor Department says average wages have risen only 3.4% over the last year, so workers' real spending power has declined...
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