Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • December 5, 2025
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CRE Lending Rebounds as Banks Navigate Distress Risks

According to Bisnow, banks are reentering the commercial real estate market after a multi-year pullback. Loan origination volumes hit $227B in the first nine months of 2025. That marks an 85% jump over last year and is nearly back to 2019 levels, according to Newmark.

Multifamily assets led the surge. These properties received about half of the loans originated in Q2. Even the office sector—largely avoided in recent years—is seeing renewed lending activity...

A blurry picture of a clothing store with clothes on display.

Chicken wars heat up with latest Raising Cane’s expansion

Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers is ending the year with a surge of new stores.



The Plano, Texas-based chain said it plans to open 14 restaurants across the country in December, bringing its brick-and-mortar presence to more than 950 locations. There has been “a steady rhythm of grand openings throughout 2025” as Raising Cane’s “continues to grow its national footprint,” according to the company. It will have rolled out nearly 100 restaurants this year, according to a spokeswoman for the chain...

A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

CoStar: Retail vacancy rates to rise in first half of 2026

Retail construction starts have fallen sharply amid rising costs.



That’s according to a forecast from CoStar, a global provider of online real estate marketplaces company, information and analytics in the property markets. Following positive demand and a slowdown in store closures during the third quarter of 2025, the near-term U.S. retail outlook includes a rise in vacancy rates through the first half of 2026, peaking under 4.4% in the latter half of the year...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Papa Johns to open 52 locations across mid-Atlantic

Papa Johns plans to open 52 restaurants in the next five years across greater Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., through a franchisee as the global pizza chain reduces its percentage of corporate ownership.

Papa John's International, a chain that does business as Papa Johns and calls itself the world's third-largest pizza delivery company, said another franchisee took ownership of 85 of its shops around the mid-Atlantic region. The chain, based in Atlanta, Georgia, and Louisville, Kentucky, has about 6,000 restaurants in roughly 50 countries and territories...

El Pollo Loco restaurant exterior at dusk, featuring a red and orange striped accent wall and floor-to-ceiling windows.

How Passion and Purpose Are Fueling El Pollo Loco’s Next Chapter

El Pollo Loco CEO Liz Williams had been a fan of the brand years before becoming part of the team. 


She lives in Southern California, where the fast casual is based. The executive also previously worked for Taco Bell, which has a corporate office minutes away from El Pollo Loco’s Support Center. 

When Williams received the call to consider the opportunity, she had the same question on her mind as everyone else...

A person pushes a cart along the sidewalk of a street lined with storefronts featuring green trim and large windows.

Retail Rebound Drives Discount Store Expansion Nationwide


After a slow start to 2025 with bankruptcies and weak demand, retailers rebounded strongly in the third quarter, reports WSJ. According to CoStar, tenants absorbed 5.5M more SF than they vacated—a sharp contrast to earlier quarters when closures outpaced openings.


The retail vacancy rate remained tight at 4.3%, thanks in part to minimal new construction. With few new builds in the pipeline, expanding retailers are increasingly snapping up second-generation space left behind by struggling brands...

A Dollar Tree store exterior with a large green sign in the foreground under a clear blue sky.

Dollar Tree posts strong Q3 on heels of ‘record’ Halloween sales, lifts guidance

Dollar Tree Inc. reported an upbeat third quarter that beat Street estimates and raised its full-year earnings outlook as its multi-price format continues to attract more higher-income shoppers.



On the company's earnings call, CEO Mike Creedon said that Dollar Tree had 3 million more households shop with the chain during the third quarter of this compared to last year.


“Approximately 60% of these incremental shoppers came from high-income households, those earning over $100,000," he told analysts...


Storefront of an American Eagle Outfitters with dark wood paneling, an eagle logo, and interior clothing displays.

American Eagle sales rise on strong performance by Aerie; raises Q4 outlook


American Eagle Outfitters Inc. sustained its momentum during the third quarter as the company delivered earnings and “record” sales that topped Wall Street expectations.



The apparel retailer also raised its full-year forecast and sounded a confident note about the holiday season, saying its “strong momentum” had continued into the fourth quarter...

By Marc Perlof September 18, 2026
10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 ahead of Fed rate decision New York — The bond market sell-off is raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week and putting a spotlight on the central bank’s commitment to reining in inflation. Traders widely expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the first time since 2023. Traders are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate hike, according to CME FedWatch, a real-time forecasting tool...
By Marc Perlof September 14, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 September 14, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Why CASp Reports Matter A Certified Access Specialist (CASp) report can help a California retail property owner understand accessibility issues before they become a bigger problem. It may identify concerns involving parking, paths of travel, entrances, doors, restrooms, signage, counters, slopes, and common areas. The value of a CASp report is clarity. It helps an owner understand what issues exist, what may need to be corrected, what may affect a lease or sale, and what requires legal guidance. But owners should be careful. A CASp report should not be ordered casually with no plan. If a report identifies issues and the owner does nothing, the owner may create a record of known problems without a strategy to address them. For retail property owners, the real value of a CASp report is not the report itself. It is reducing uncertainty before that uncertainty turns into buyer leverage, tenant demands, settlement pressure, or a lower sale price. What Is a CASp Report? A CASp inspection is performed by a trained accessibility professional who reviews a property for construction-related accessibility issues. For retail owners, a CASp report may review customer-facing areas such as parking, access aisles, ramps, walkways, entrances, doors, restrooms, counters, signage, slopes, and common areas. The exact scope depends on the property, the tenant use, and the purpose of the inspection. That matters because many owners do not know where the problems are until someone else points them out. That someone may be a plaintiff, attorney, tenant, buyer, lender, or inspector. Why Timing Matters Timing matters with CASp reports. In some situations, getting a CASp inspection before a claim may provide more options than waiting until after a lawsuit is filed. Owners should confirm the timing, legal effect, and any potential benefits with an Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) attorney before relying on a CASp report. This is one reason retail owners should think about accessibility before there is pressure. Before a lawsuit, sale, refinance, major lease negotiation, tenant turnover, or remodel, an owner may have more control. The owner can speak with an attorney, decide whether a CASp inspection makes sense, evaluate the findings, budget for work, and create a plan. After a lawsuit or during escrow, the owner may have less control. Deadlines are tighter. Buyers may use the issue as leverage. Tenants may resist responsibility. Repairs may need to be priced quickly. That is when unknown risk becomes expensive. Can a CASp Report Create a Problem? Yes, if the owner handles it poorly. A CASp report can be helpful, but it can also create pressure if it identifies issues and the owner ignores them. The problem is not the report itself. The problem is having knowledge of potential issues with no plan to address them. That is why owners should speak with an ADA attorney and a qualified accessibility professional before ordering inspections, making written statements, or starting repairs. The right sequence matters. Get the right guidance. Define the purpose of the report. Review the findings. Create a realistic plan for what can be corrected, what may need more review, and what should be documented. How CASp Reports Can Affect Property Value CASp reports can affect value because they reduce uncertainty. Buyers do not only look at rent, Net Operating Income (NOI), lease term, cap rate, and tenant strength. They also look at risk. If a buyer sees unresolved ADA concerns with no report, no explanation, and no plan, the buyer may assume the worst. That can lead to a lower offer, a repair credit, a price reduction, a holdback, a longer due diligence period, or stronger seller protections. A CASp report can help shift the conversation from guessing to facts. That does not mean every buyer will ignore the issue. It does not mean the property is perfect. But it can help the owner show that the issue has been reviewed and that there is a plan. In real estate, fear often creates bigger discounts than facts. If a repair costs $20,000, the owner wants the discussion to be about $20,000, not a buyer guessing the issue could cost $100,000. That is how clarity can protect value. How CASp Reports Can Affect Leasing CASp reports can also affect leasing. A restaurant, medical tenant, dental tenant, franchise operator, or service tenant may care about accessibility before signing a lease or opening for business. If the owner understands the property’s accessibility issues before lease negotiations, the owner can better decide what work belongs to the landlord, what work belongs to the tenant, and whether the issue should affect rent, tenant improvement money, free rent, or delivery condition. Without that information, the owner may negotiate blind. That can cost money. What Retail Property Owners Should Do Retail owners should not treat CASp reports as a box to check. They should treat them as part of a risk and value strategy. Speak with an ADA attorney before ordering reports or making written statements. Use a qualified CASp professional who understands commercial properties and retail access issues. Define the purpose and scope of the report before the inspection begins. Create an action plan for items that may need correction and consider how the findings could affect a sale, refinance, lease negotiation, or tenant relationship. The goal is to avoid surprises. A surprise during escrow can become a price reduction. A surprise during a lease negotiation can become extra landlord work. A surprise after a lawsuit can become settlement pressure. Final Thought A CASp report is not magic. It does not eliminate every risk, replace legal advice, or automatically protect property value. But it can give a retail property owner something valuable: clarity. For retail property owners, the real value of a CASp report is not just knowing what is wrong. It is knowing what to do next. If you are considering a CASp report before a lease, refinance, or sale, I can help you think through how the findings may affect value, timing, and buyer leverage. In next week’s blog, “Readily Achievable ADA Repairs: What Retail Property Owners Should Understand,” we will discuss why some accessibility fixes may be more manageable than owners think, how year built can matter, and why current property condition matters more than assumptions. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #RetailPropertyOwners #ADACompliance #CASp #PropertyValue #CommercialProperty #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof September 11, 2026
Morning Consult: Five Below, other retailers among 25 fastest-growing brands Five Below is one of the fastest-growing brands in the U.S. The tween and teen extreme value retailer is the No. 10 fastest-growing brand overall and the only retailer to crack the top 10 in Morning Consult’s “Fastest Growing Brands 2026” report. The study ranks the top 25 brands according to year-over-year purchasing intent. A re-launched, decades-old soda brand, Mr. Pibb, ranked No. 1. Five Below’s purchasing consideration increased 3.2 points this year, according to the report. (The retailer recently reported that its second-quarter sales r ose 22.9% to $1.26 billion...)
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