Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • December 5, 2025
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CRE Lending Rebounds as Banks Navigate Distress Risks

According to Bisnow, banks are reentering the commercial real estate market after a multi-year pullback. Loan origination volumes hit $227B in the first nine months of 2025. That marks an 85% jump over last year and is nearly back to 2019 levels, according to Newmark.

Multifamily assets led the surge. These properties received about half of the loans originated in Q2. Even the office sector—largely avoided in recent years—is seeing renewed lending activity...

A blurry picture of a clothing store with clothes on display.

Chicken wars heat up with latest Raising Cane’s expansion

Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers is ending the year with a surge of new stores.



The Plano, Texas-based chain said it plans to open 14 restaurants across the country in December, bringing its brick-and-mortar presence to more than 950 locations. There has been “a steady rhythm of grand openings throughout 2025” as Raising Cane’s “continues to grow its national footprint,” according to the company. It will have rolled out nearly 100 restaurants this year, according to a spokeswoman for the chain...

A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

CoStar: Retail vacancy rates to rise in first half of 2026

Retail construction starts have fallen sharply amid rising costs.



That’s according to a forecast from CoStar, a global provider of online real estate marketplaces company, information and analytics in the property markets. Following positive demand and a slowdown in store closures during the third quarter of 2025, the near-term U.S. retail outlook includes a rise in vacancy rates through the first half of 2026, peaking under 4.4% in the latter half of the year...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Papa Johns to open 52 locations across mid-Atlantic

Papa Johns plans to open 52 restaurants in the next five years across greater Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., through a franchisee as the global pizza chain reduces its percentage of corporate ownership.

Papa John's International, a chain that does business as Papa Johns and calls itself the world's third-largest pizza delivery company, said another franchisee took ownership of 85 of its shops around the mid-Atlantic region. The chain, based in Atlanta, Georgia, and Louisville, Kentucky, has about 6,000 restaurants in roughly 50 countries and territories...

How Passion and Purpose Are Fueling El Pollo Loco’s Next Chapter

El Pollo Loco CEO Liz Williams had been a fan of the brand years before becoming part of the team. 


She lives in Southern California, where the fast casual is based. The executive also previously worked for Taco Bell, which has a corporate office minutes away from El Pollo Loco’s Support Center. 

When Williams received the call to consider the opportunity, she had the same question on her mind as everyone else...

Retail Rebound Drives Discount Store Expansion Nationwide


After a slow start to 2025 with bankruptcies and weak demand, retailers rebounded strongly in the third quarter, reports WSJ. According to CoStar, tenants absorbed 5.5M more SF than they vacated—a sharp contrast to earlier quarters when closures outpaced openings.


The retail vacancy rate remained tight at 4.3%, thanks in part to minimal new construction. With few new builds in the pipeline, expanding retailers are increasingly snapping up second-generation space left behind by struggling brands...

Dollar Tree posts strong Q3 on heels of ‘record’ Halloween sales, lifts guidance

Dollar Tree Inc. reported an upbeat third quarter that beat Street estimates and raised its full-year earnings outlook as its multi-price format continues to attract more higher-income shoppers.



On the company's earnings call, CEO Mike Creedon said that Dollar Tree had 3 million more households shop with the chain during the third quarter of this compared to last year.


“Approximately 60% of these incremental shoppers came from high-income households, those earning over $100,000," he told analysts...


American Eagle sales rise on strong performance by Aerie; raises Q4 outlook


American Eagle Outfitters Inc. sustained its momentum during the third quarter as the company delivered earnings and “record” sales that topped Wall Street expectations.



The apparel retailer also raised its full-year forecast and sounded a confident note about the holiday season, saying its “strong momentum” had continued into the fourth quarter...

By Marc Perlof November 28, 2025
US cancels release of CPI report for October because of government shutdown WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday it had canceled the release of October's consumer price report because the recently ended government shutdown had prevented the collection of data. "BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. For a few indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations," the BLS said in a statement...
By Marc Perlof November 24, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy November 24, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed for you. Thanksgiving is more than a holiday. It is a powerful signal for retail property owners. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. holiday retail sales for November and December 2025 to grow between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent and reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. This is the first time total sales are projected to pass one trillion dollars.¹ Deloitte reports that average planned consumer spending is down about 10 percent, dropping to $1,595 per shopper.² The message is simple. More total dollars will be spent, but buyers are more selective. Tenants will need to compete harder, and property owners must watch how each tenant responds. Online spending is projected to hit $253.4 billion in 2025, a 5.3 percent increase from last year.³ Mobile sales will account for more than half of online revenue. Shoppers are also starting earlier. More than 40 percent of U.S. consumers plan to begin their holiday purchases before Thanksgiving.⁴ This changes how centers must prepare and how landlords evaluate performance. Retail property owners should focus on the tenant mix. Essential goods and value driven retailers will perform best in a tighter spending environment. Thanksgiving is now a benchmark moment. Measure your property’s traffic and compare it to these national trends. If a tenant is not matching market movement, this is your chance to reposition the space or begin renewal conversations with real data. Call or DM me for more information. I can walk you through how this Thanksgiving period can guide your 2026 leasing and investment strategy. Thought provoking question. Are you using your Thanksgiving performance as a true scorecard for the year ahead? #retailrealestate #holidayretailtrends #commercialrealestate #retailinvestment #holidaypropertystrategy
By Marc Perlof November 21, 2025
Under Armour restructuring includes split from its biggest star Under Armour is parting ways with basketball star Stephen Curry as part of a restructuring initiative that includes focusing on its namesake brand. The athletic apparel and footwear company said it plans to separate Curry Brand from Under Armour, ending a partnership “that has redefined performance product and athlete-led storytelling for more than a decade.” Under Armour had long played up its partnership with 11-time NBA All-Star...
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