Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • November 21, 2025
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Under Armour restructuring includes split from its biggest star

Under Armour is parting ways with basketball star Stephen Curry as part of a restructuring initiative that includes focusing on its namesake brand. The athletic apparel and footwear company said it plans to separate Curry Brand from Under Armour, ending a partnership “that has redefined performance product and athlete-led storytelling for more than a decade.” Under Armour had long played up its partnership with 11-time NBA All-Star...

A blurry picture of a clothing store with clothes on display.

Retail roulette: How Trump’s tariffs altered buying

Ever-changing tariff rates have introduced uncertainty and confusion for retail buyers. But could they also present an opportunity for new supply chain strategies?


With the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs, yesterday’s price is not today’s price.

Retailers may have found this to be particularly true this year as tariff rates have fluctuated at a pace rarely seen before. The on-again, off-again approach has impacted the ability to predict costs of goods from suppliers retailers have typically leaned on, impacting a buying process that often relies on historical data...


A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

Expanding retailers face space crunch; Tariffs expected to slow global trade growth; Residential lending conditions ease

Expanding retailers face space crunch

National retailers looking to boost the number of their locations face rising challenges as U.S. retail construction remains limited. Those companies will increasingly be turning to “second generation” spaces vacated by others as conditions favor small formats over big boxes, according to the latest national retail trends report from brokerage JLL...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Home Depot lowers outlook as soft housing market cuts its sales


Saks Off 5th will be closing 10 stores scattered across the United States as its parent, luxury retail giant Saks Global, looks to streamline its brick-and-mortar property.


The off-price chain with 79 locations now has slated nine stores for closing starting early next year, New York-based Saks Global confirmed in an email to CoStar News. A 10th location, at 125 E. 57th St. in Manhattan, will go dark on Dec. 31 as the building that houses it is converted from commercial to residential use. That prompted Saks Off 5th's decision to exit that retail site...

Bombas teams with Leap, Shopify and Simon for brick-and-mortar expansion

Direct-to-consumer sock brand Bombas continues its push into physical retail.



Best known for its comfortable socks and “buy one, donate one’ business model, Bombas has opened third-ever retail location, at The Domain in Austin, Texas. The opening follows the October debut of the brand’s first-ever stores, at Town Center in Boca Raton, Fla., and New York City. All three stores offer the company's full product assortment, which has expanded beyond socks to include underwear, T-shirts, slippers, slides and more...


Burlington to fill empty Modell’s space in Westchester County

Post Road Plaza in Pelham Manor, N.Y., is once again fully occupied.


Burlington Stores has signed lease for a 30,500-sq.-ft. space at the center that was vacated by Modell’s in 2020, and Gloss Nail Bar & Lash closed on a 3,500-sq.-ft. space. Post Road Plaza sits across the street from a BJ’s Wholesale Club and serves high-income Westchester residents as well as customers from the nearby Bronx...

Retail Analytics Drive Smarter Site Selection In Crowded Markets

For brands like Chipotle, with 50+ Manhattan locations, the challenge isn’t entry—it’s optimizing within a saturated market. Kenneth Hochhauser, EVP at RTL, says every new site must be backed by rigorous data analysis to justify its value, reports GlobeSt. This is especially true in dense urban environments...


By Marc Perlof April 6, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 April 6, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. The U.S. is not running out of money. But debt is rising and keeping interest rates higher. That is already pushing down retail property values. Higher government debt is keeping borrowing costs high, and that lowers your property value. What Changed What is happening? A recent article from Yahoo Finance claims the U.S. is “insolvent” based on Treasury data.¹ The idea comes from comparing what the government owes to what it owns. What is causing it? The U.S. keeps spending more than it collects. Total debt keeps growing. At the same time, interest rates have gone up. That makes it more expensive for the government to borrow money. This does not mean the U.S. cannot pay its bills. It means the system is under pressure. That pressure affects interest rates across the economy. Why It Matters (Value Impact) How does this affect your property value? Retail property values are tied to income and cap rates. Cap rates follow the 10-year Treasury. When government debt keeps rates higher, cap rates stay higher. Higher cap rates mean lower property values. How are buyers underwriting this today? Buyers are using higher borrowing costs in their numbers. They are also assuming they will sell at higher cap rates later. That lowers what they can pay today. What happens if rates stay high? Your income becomes more exposed. Expenses like insurance and maintenance keep rising. If rent does not keep up, your net income drops. Lower income plus higher cap rates equals lower value. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners What should you do right now? Base decisions on today’s borrowing costs. Not past pricing. If you are selling, price to current cap rates. If you are holding, protect your income. What should you review in your lease? Look closely at what expenses you can pass through. Insurance, CAM, and repairs matter more now. If your lease does not fully protect your income, your value is already exposed. What should you prepare for? Plan for rates to stay higher longer. Build in margin for higher costs and slower leasing. Do not rely on rate cuts to fix your deal. Real Deal Insight Buyers are pricing retail deals today based on current debt costs and higher cap rate assumptions. A recent strip center owner in Southern California expected pricing based on a 5.25% cap rate from prior comps. Today, buyers are underwriting closer to 6.25% to 6.75% due to higher debt costs and exit assumptions. On a $1,000,000 NOI: At 5.25% cap → value ≈ $19.0M At 6.50% cap → value ≈ $15.4M That is a ~$3.6M difference, without any change in income. This is the gap sellers and buyers are working through right now. Deals are getting done, but only when pricing reflects today’s cap rates and financing reality. Market POV Pricing is a moving target right now. If you are thinking about selling or completing a 1031 exchange in 2026, looking at your property’s value sooner rather than later is optimal. Waiting for rates to drop may not bring values back to prior peaks. Buyers are already adjusting to a higher rate environment, and pricing is resetting in real time. Owner Self-Assessment If you had to sell today, would your current income support today’s higher cap rates? Market Data and Sources U.S. federal debt is over $34 trillion and continues to grow.² Interest on that debt is now one of the largest government expenses.³ The 10-year Treasury has been around the 4% range, well above prior lows.4 This shift is already showing up in pricing across Los Angeles retail deals today, and it is changing how buyers and sellers are negotiating in real time. If you own retail real estate in Los Angeles or Southern California, this is already showing up in pricing, negotiations, and deal structure across strip centers, shopping centers, and NNN assets. If you own retail real estate, I can show you what your property is worth today based on current cap rates, buyer demand, and real underwriting. Call or DM me for a current value analysis. What happens to your property value if cap rates increase 0.5% to 1.0%? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #NNNProperties #CapRates #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvesting #LosAngelesRealEstate #CREMarket #InvestmentProperty #StripCenters #ShoppingCenters #RealEstateStrategy
By Marc Perlof April 3, 2026
'Mild stagflation': Bank of America rips up economic forecasts, braces for $100 oil all year on Iran war disruptions Bank of America analysts are projecting slower growth, higher inflation, and $100 per barrel oil all year as a result of the Iran war — even if it ends within weeks. "The war dividend so far: mild stagflation," BofA economist Claudio Irigoyen and his team wrote in a note on Wednesday, referring to the economic phenomenon of higher inflation coupled with slower growth...
By Marc Perlof March 30, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 30, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. NNN retail is no longer passive income. Rising insurance and CAM costs are reducing NOI and directly impacting property value. For years, the model was simple. Tenant pays taxes. Tenant pays insurance. Tenant pays CAM. Owner collects rent. That model is now breaking in practice. What Changed Insurance premiums have increased sharply across California, driven by carrier exits and wildfire risk.¹ At the same time, CAM expenses are rising across the board. Utilities, repairs, maintenance, and vendor costs are all moving up.² On paper, these are still tenant expenses. In reality, recovery is no longer clean or guaranteed. Why It Matters When expenses rise and are not fully recovered, NOI drops. Lower NOI leads to lower value. Buyers are now underwriting this risk. They are not assuming full reimbursement. They are adjusting pricing based on uncertainty in expense recovery.³ This directly impacts: Sale pricing Refinance proceeds Buyer demand What Is Driving This Shift Three core factors: 1. Insurance volatility Carriers are exiting California or tightening coverage. Premiums are rising, and terms are less predictable.¹ 2. Operating cost pressure Labor, materials, and utilities continue to increase. Maintenance is no longer stable year to year.² 3. Tenant resistance Tenants are pushing back on expense increases. Some delay payment. Others dispute charges or request documentation. How Buyers Are Thinking Today Buyers are no longer treating NNN as clean pass-through income. They are: Stress-testing CAM and insurance assumptions Discounting recoverability of expenses Building reserves for future increases Underwriting more conservative NOI Lenders are also paying closer attention to expense stability and coverage risk. This is changing how deals are priced.³ If you own retail property, focus on your lease structure. Key areas to review: Expense recovery language Make sure insurance, CAM, and all operating costs are clearly recoverable. Control provisions Limit tenant ability to dispute or delay payment. Caps and exclusions Understand where you are exposed. Many leases have limits that reduce recovery. Documentation Keep clean records. You may need to support charges during disputes or a sale. Buyers today are discounting deals where CAM and insurance recovery is unclear. Some are retrading during escrow after reviewing expense history and tenant pushback. Example: A strip center in Los Angeles sees insurance increase by $40,000. If fully recovered, no impact. If only partially recovered, NOI drops. At a 6.5% cap rate, a $40,000 NOI loss reduces value by over $600,000. This is how buyers are underwriting today. If your lease does not fully protect your income, your value is already exposed. If you want, I will walk your lease, identify where you are exposed, and show you how it impacts your value today. What does your lease actually protect? #RetailRealEstate #NNNProperties #TripleNetLease #RetailInvesting #StripCenters #ShoppingCenters #CREInvesting #LosAngelesRealEstate #CaliforniaCRE #CommercialRealEstate #MarcRetailGuy
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