Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • February 20, 2026
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This Signal Triggered Before the Last 4 Recessions. It Just Happened Again.


The question of whether the U.S. economy is heading toward recession is a polarizing one.


On one hand, GDP grew at a 4.4% annualized clip in the third quarter. The unemployment rate is still in the 4% to 5% range. Inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve's target but it's also sustainably below the 3% level...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Report: Aritzia sees potential for 180 to 200-plus U.S. stores


Aritzia Inc. has big ambitions when it comes to the United States. 



The Canadian fashion retailer sees the long-term potential for 180 to 200-plus U.S. locations, according to a report by WWD. Aritzia currently operates approximately 140 stores in North America, including 72 in the U.S...

Beef Costs Bite into Burger King’s Profits, but Turnaround Plan Presses On

Burger King’s “Reclaim the Flame” turnaround plan ran into some roadblocks last year because of the macroeconomic environment.


Average profitability per unit was about $185,000 last year, down from $205,000 in 2024. The chain attributed the dip to higher beef costs—the brand’s largest commodity—which increased more than 20 percent year-over-year. CEO Josh Kobza said that if beef prices remained what they were in 2024, then average profitability would’ve been about flat year-over-year...

Restaurant industry to see sales rise, jobs added in 2026


Despite increasing operating costs and economic pressures impacting consumers, the National Restaurant Association is bullish on the dining sector for 2026.


According to the group’s State of the Restaurant Industry 2026 report, consumer spending is expected to push restaurant industry sales to a projected $1.55 trillion nationwide, with real (inflation-adjusted) sales gains of 1.3% projected. The report added that restaurant operators are expected to add approximately 100,000 jobs in 2026, bringing total industry employment to 15.8 million...

Dutch Bros to open ‘at least’ 180 sites in 2026 on heels of ‘record-breaking’ year

Dutch Bros delivered its 19th consecutive year of positive same-store sales growth and reported fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that easily topped expectations. 


The fast-growing drive-thru coffee chain continued its expansion during the quarter, opening 55 locations. For the full year, Dutch Bros opened 154 new shops across 22 states, giving it a total of 1,136 locations across 25 states...

Ace Hardware ends year on upbeat note


Ace Hardware Corp. reported record revenue for its fourth quarter and full year.


The hardware cooperative’s consolidated revenues rose 9.9% to $2.5 billion for the three months ended Jan. 3. Total wholesale revenues were $2.3 billion, an increase of 10.0% compared to the prior year fourth quarter...

Trader Joe’s releases latest ‘coming soon’ list of stores


Trader Joe’s will open eight locations in the coming months, the grocery retailer announced Tuesday.


Two new stores will open in Louisiana—New Orleans and Mandeville—and two will open in the Southeast—Johns Creek, Georgia, and West Palm Beach, Florida.


The company plans to open additional stores in Merriam, Kansas; Tucson, Arizona; Woodinville, Washington; and McKinney, Texas...

Consumers continue shifting to mass-channel retailers for groceries


Mass retailers and dollar stores are gaining ground with consumers as financial insecurity continues to affect grocery purchasing decisions, with one chain clearly in the lead.


Walmart’s grocery penetration has reached a record-breaking 72%, according to Dunnhumby's latest Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) report, which analyzes the grocery spending habits and choices of consumers on a quarterly basis...

Ikea adds four more stores to its 2026 US growth push

Global furniture retailer Ikea has bumped up the number of U.S. stores it plans to open this year, adding four more for a total of 10 locations.


The Swedish company — whose hallmark is selling affordable ready-to-assemble furniture in big-box stores — said it now will be opening new stores in Culver City, Los Angeles’ first city-center store; Tulsa, the first Ikea store in Oklahoma; Gurnee in the Chicago area; and Fort Collins, joining Ikea Centennial and Ikea Colorado Springs in Colorado...

Gym apparel retailer makes brick-and-mortar entry in Los Angeles


A bright orange Lamborghini at the entrance of the newest store at one of Los Angeles' most upscale malls isn't just décor — it's a symbol of a digital brand shifting gears into the physical world.



Younglapronounced YUHN-guh-lay, is a fast-growing apparel company born on social media and fueled by fitness influencers. It has opened its first brick-and-mortar store at Westfield Topanga in Canoga Park, about 25 miles northwest of downtown Los Angeles...


Wendy’s Calls 2026 a Rebuilding Year as Sales Slide and Closures Accelerate

Wendy’s interim CEO Ken Cook made it clear to investors Friday that 2026 will be a rebuilding year for the burger giant.


U.S. same-store sales fell 11.3 percent in Q4, driven by a decrease in traffic, partially offset by a higher average check. The brand attributed downward sales to significantly less marketing spend, a tough lap against the chain’s SpongeBob SquarePants collaboration in Q4 2024, and a decision to move its chicken sandwich launch into 2026. One positive was the rollout of chicken tenders and sauces, which led to high customer satisfaction scores...


By Marc Perlof April 6, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 April 6, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. The U.S. is not running out of money. But debt is rising and keeping interest rates higher. That is already pushing down retail property values. Higher government debt is keeping borrowing costs high, and that lowers your property value. What Changed What is happening? A recent article from Yahoo Finance claims the U.S. is “insolvent” based on Treasury data.¹ The idea comes from comparing what the government owes to what it owns. What is causing it? The U.S. keeps spending more than it collects. Total debt keeps growing. At the same time, interest rates have gone up. That makes it more expensive for the government to borrow money. This does not mean the U.S. cannot pay its bills. It means the system is under pressure. That pressure affects interest rates across the economy. Why It Matters (Value Impact) How does this affect your property value? Retail property values are tied to income and cap rates. Cap rates follow the 10-year Treasury. When government debt keeps rates higher, cap rates stay higher. Higher cap rates mean lower property values. How are buyers underwriting this today? Buyers are using higher borrowing costs in their numbers. They are also assuming they will sell at higher cap rates later. That lowers what they can pay today. What happens if rates stay high? Your income becomes more exposed. Expenses like insurance and maintenance keep rising. If rent does not keep up, your net income drops. Lower income plus higher cap rates equals lower value. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners What should you do right now? Base decisions on today’s borrowing costs. Not past pricing. If you are selling, price to current cap rates. If you are holding, protect your income. What should you review in your lease? Look closely at what expenses you can pass through. Insurance, CAM, and repairs matter more now. If your lease does not fully protect your income, your value is already exposed. What should you prepare for? Plan for rates to stay higher longer. Build in margin for higher costs and slower leasing. Do not rely on rate cuts to fix your deal. Real Deal Insight Buyers are pricing retail deals today based on current debt costs and higher cap rate assumptions. A recent strip center owner in Southern California expected pricing based on a 5.25% cap rate from prior comps. Today, buyers are underwriting closer to 6.25% to 6.75% due to higher debt costs and exit assumptions. On a $1,000,000 NOI: At 5.25% cap → value ≈ $19.0M At 6.50% cap → value ≈ $15.4M That is a ~$3.6M difference, without any change in income. This is the gap sellers and buyers are working through right now. Deals are getting done, but only when pricing reflects today’s cap rates and financing reality. Market POV Pricing is a moving target right now. If you are thinking about selling or completing a 1031 exchange in 2026, looking at your property’s value sooner rather than later is optimal. Waiting for rates to drop may not bring values back to prior peaks. Buyers are already adjusting to a higher rate environment, and pricing is resetting in real time. Owner Self-Assessment If you had to sell today, would your current income support today’s higher cap rates? Market Data and Sources U.S. federal debt is over $34 trillion and continues to grow.² Interest on that debt is now one of the largest government expenses.³ The 10-year Treasury has been around the 4% range, well above prior lows.4 This shift is already showing up in pricing across Los Angeles retail deals today, and it is changing how buyers and sellers are negotiating in real time. If you own retail real estate in Los Angeles or Southern California, this is already showing up in pricing, negotiations, and deal structure across strip centers, shopping centers, and NNN assets. If you own retail real estate, I can show you what your property is worth today based on current cap rates, buyer demand, and real underwriting. Call or DM me for a current value analysis. What happens to your property value if cap rates increase 0.5% to 1.0%? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #NNNProperties #CapRates #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvesting #LosAngelesRealEstate #CREMarket #InvestmentProperty #StripCenters #ShoppingCenters #RealEstateStrategy
By Marc Perlof April 3, 2026
'Mild stagflation': Bank of America rips up economic forecasts, braces for $100 oil all year on Iran war disruptions Bank of America analysts are projecting slower growth, higher inflation, and $100 per barrel oil all year as a result of the Iran war — even if it ends within weeks. "The war dividend so far: mild stagflation," BofA economist Claudio Irigoyen and his team wrote in a note on Wednesday, referring to the economic phenomenon of higher inflation coupled with slower growth...
By Marc Perlof March 30, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 30, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. NNN retail is no longer passive income. Rising insurance and CAM costs are reducing NOI and directly impacting property value. For years, the model was simple. Tenant pays taxes. Tenant pays insurance. Tenant pays CAM. Owner collects rent. That model is now breaking in practice. What Changed Insurance premiums have increased sharply across California, driven by carrier exits and wildfire risk.¹ At the same time, CAM expenses are rising across the board. Utilities, repairs, maintenance, and vendor costs are all moving up.² On paper, these are still tenant expenses. In reality, recovery is no longer clean or guaranteed. Why It Matters When expenses rise and are not fully recovered, NOI drops. Lower NOI leads to lower value. Buyers are now underwriting this risk. They are not assuming full reimbursement. They are adjusting pricing based on uncertainty in expense recovery.³ This directly impacts: Sale pricing Refinance proceeds Buyer demand What Is Driving This Shift Three core factors: 1. Insurance volatility Carriers are exiting California or tightening coverage. Premiums are rising, and terms are less predictable.¹ 2. Operating cost pressure Labor, materials, and utilities continue to increase. Maintenance is no longer stable year to year.² 3. Tenant resistance Tenants are pushing back on expense increases. Some delay payment. Others dispute charges or request documentation. How Buyers Are Thinking Today Buyers are no longer treating NNN as clean pass-through income. They are: Stress-testing CAM and insurance assumptions Discounting recoverability of expenses Building reserves for future increases Underwriting more conservative NOI Lenders are also paying closer attention to expense stability and coverage risk. This is changing how deals are priced.³ If you own retail property, focus on your lease structure. Key areas to review: Expense recovery language Make sure insurance, CAM, and all operating costs are clearly recoverable. Control provisions Limit tenant ability to dispute or delay payment. Caps and exclusions Understand where you are exposed. Many leases have limits that reduce recovery. Documentation Keep clean records. You may need to support charges during disputes or a sale. Buyers today are discounting deals where CAM and insurance recovery is unclear. Some are retrading during escrow after reviewing expense history and tenant pushback. Example: A strip center in Los Angeles sees insurance increase by $40,000. If fully recovered, no impact. If only partially recovered, NOI drops. At a 6.5% cap rate, a $40,000 NOI loss reduces value by over $600,000. This is how buyers are underwriting today. If your lease does not fully protect your income, your value is already exposed. If you want, I will walk your lease, identify where you are exposed, and show you how it impacts your value today. What does your lease actually protect? #RetailRealEstate #NNNProperties #TripleNetLease #RetailInvesting #StripCenters #ShoppingCenters #CREInvesting #LosAngelesRealEstate #CaliforniaCRE #CommercialRealEstate #MarcRetailGuy
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