Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • February 6, 2026
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Santa Monica's entertainment zone could expand throughout Downtown and into neighboring streets


Santa Monica officials are considering expanding the downtown Entertainment Zone, where patrons can carry alcoholic drinks while walking outdoors. The zone could grow from its current three-block area to encompass much of downtown after showing no increase in crime...


The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Interest Rates Outlook Remains Steady for CRE Buyers



The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, sparking speculation about sharp drops once Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair, reports the Commercial Observer. In commercial real estate (CRE), many wonder if a new Fed approach could bring back ultra-low rates and boost property values.


However, CRE depends more on the 10-Year US Treasury than short-term Fed actions. Inflation, fiscal policy, global capital flows, and risk premiums shape long-term Treasury yields. These factors go beyond Fed leadership and hold greater influence over market trends...

Cinema Industry Revival Spurs Premium Experience Growth

According to Bisnow, the US cinema industry is rebounding 
after years of decline. Rising demand for premium large format screens and luxury dine-in theaters is driving this recovery. Christopher Nolan’s upcoming film Odyssey has fueled early interest. Imax 70mm tickets sold out months in advance and now resell for high prices.


Although US movie screens declined 12% since 2020, the industry added locations in 2025. Screen count rose 2%, marking the first net growth in five years. Analysts credit this shift to a consumer focus on immersive, event-style viewing over standard multiplexes...

Retail Rebound Drives Selective Conviction in Shopping Centers


Principal Asset Management reports that retail real estate is experiencing a 
targeted resurgence, with institutional investors focusing on open-air shopping centers that meet strict quality standards. While the sector as a whole benefits from rising tenant demand and renewed importance of physical stores, only a small portion—roughly 6–10%—of available space meets the criteria for core, institutional investment...

Store Expansion News: January update


Retailers and restaurant chains alike kicked off 2026 by making headlines in January with store expansions and new formats.

Here are the major stories as reported by Chain Store Age, starting with the most recent.


  • Starbucks to open 150 to 175 U.S. stores in 2026; sees 'big' long-term opportunity The coffee giant expects to open approximately 600 to 650 net new cafes this year, including 150 to 175 U.S. company-operated stores and 450 to 500 international locations. China, Starbucks’ largest market outside of the U.S., comprises close to half of the international total...

Americans spend big on ‘retail therapy;’ here’s on what and where...


The practice of “retail therapy” is alive and well, with Americans spending thousands a year to boost their mood.

The average American makes 107 retail therapy purchases per year, according to a new survey from CashNet USA, which defines retail therapy as the act of “shopping to relieve feelings like stress, boredom or frustration. Millennials (aged 29-44) make the most (160) amount of retail therapy purchases per year, with baby boomers making the least (39) amount...

Outdoor apparel retailer Eddie Bauer starts closing down its stores

Another chain has joined the list of retailers shutting stores this year as outdoor apparel seller Eddie Bauer has begun holding liquidation sales throughout its brick-and-mortar locations.



The Bellevue, Washington-based retailer, with roughly 180 locations in the United States and Canada, has kicked off store-closing sales across the nation. Catalyst Brands, which operates the Eddie Bauer stores, is preparing to file for Chapter 11 for the chain, as first reported in early January by Octus and later by WWD...

Here are the grocers that could take over Amazon Fresh’s soon-to-close space


When a retail chain closes scores of stores across the United States, commercial real estate professionals at one time used to worry about filling that vacant space quickly. But now they say there’s no lack of expanding supermarket chains that could occupy the roughly five dozen Amazon Fresh grocery stores the e-commerce giant is closing, though there is a twist involved...

Retail Giant Walmart Hits $1 Trillion Milestone


Walmart reached a major milestone this week, topping a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time. Chain Storage reports that the 
company’s stock has risen over 24% in the past year, supported by strong digital business growth and expanding market share. John Furner recently took over as CEO, marking a leadership transition as the retailer continues its upward trajectory...


By Marc Perlof February 2, 2026
Retail Real Estate 2026: Why Some Properties Stay Strong While Others Struggle By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy February 2, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed. Retail real estate in 2026 is no longer one market. It has split into clear winners and clear losers. Owners who understand this are protecting value. Owners who do not are feeling pressure. The biggest change is how people spend money when things feel uncertain. Interest rates are higher. Costs are up. Households are more careful. That shift shows up first at the property level. Some retail feels stress faster than others. Lifestyle centers, nightlife areas, entertainment districts, and tourist retail depend on optional spending. When people cut back, visits drop. Sales slow. Tenants push back on rent. Vacancies last longer. This is not a crash. It is a pressure issue tied to spending people can delay. Other retail performs differently. Grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, medical and dental, quick-service food, auto service, and personal care are built around daily habits. People cut wants before needs. That makes income steadier and easier to support in a cautious market. Recent retail market reports show this split clearly. National retail vacancy stayed fairly stable through late 2025, mostly in the mid-5 percent to high-6 percent range, with necessity-based centers performing better than discretionary locations¹. Leasing slowed in 2025, with longer decision times and more rent pushback, especially from non-essential tenants². Buyers are still active, but they are more careful. They now focus on tenant quality, lease length, and operating costs more than rent growth³. What retail owners should focus on right now • Daily-needs tenants reduce risk. Properties with grocery, medical, pharmacy, and quick-service food see more stable rent and fewer concession requests. That helps protect sale price and lender support in slower markets¹. • Grocery-anchored centers sell faster. Buyers still want these assets because traffic is predictable and costs are easier to pass through. These deals tend to fall apart less often³. • Discretionary retail carries pricing risk. Properties tied to optional spending face longer vacancies, rent resistance at renewal, and wider gaps between buyer and seller pricing. Waiting too long to adjust can hurt value, not just cash flow². One thing is becoming clear in early 2026. The market is not pricing retail as one category anymore. It is pricing risk. Two properties with the same income can be worth very different amounts based on tenant mix, lease terms, and rising expenses. Owners who understand this protect equity. Others only see the gap after a buyer or lender points it out. The takeaway is simple. Retail real estate in 2026 is about quality, not hype. Stable income matters. Lease terms matter. Tenant mix matters. Insurance and operating costs matter. Owners who match strategy to how their tenants actually perform stay in control. Owners who rely on old assumptions end up reacting. If you want a clear, property-specific review of how buyers and lenders would view your retail asset today, I can prepare a short market positioning summary. No templates. No guesses. Just how your property would really trade in this market. Ask yourself this. Is your property built around spending people can delay, or spending they rely on every week? #RetailRealEstate2026 #RetailMarketOutlook #EssentialServicesRetail #GroceryAnchoredRetailCenters #DiscretionaryRetailProperties
By Marc Perlof January 30, 2026
Smoothie King plots 90-plus new openings for 2026 The world’s largest smoothie franchise isn’t planning on slowing down its growth after a strong 2025.  Smoothie King says it plans to open more than 90 new store openings in 2026, in addition to launching a targeted franchisee incentive program spanning several key states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and more. Through the program, Smoothie King says it is offering financial incentives to “growth-minded franchisees,” designed to accelerate brand awareness and density in these markets...
By Marc Perlof January 26, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy January 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. 2026 is shaping up to be a year where retail property owners need to pay attention. Not to fear. Not to headlines. To real signals in the market. There is more global and domestic uncertainty right now. Conflicts overseas, trade tension, higher government debt, and political changes in the U.S. all affect interest rates, insurance markets, and investor behavior. This does not mean panic. It means owners need clear, reliable information. Here is where the retail market stands today. Local retail remained steady through late 2025. In Los Angeles County, vacancy ranged from about 5.6 to 6.9 percent in the second half of the year¹²³. That tells us demand is still healthy, even as some tenants adjust space needs or renew leases at new rent levels. Leasing activity slowed in some areas. Spaces are taking longer to fill, and asking rents softened slightly as owners and tenants reset pricing². This is a normal market adjustment, not a collapse. On the investment side, commercial real estate transactions increased nationally through mid 2025. Both the number of deals and total dollar volume rose, showing capital is still moving⁵. Buyers are active when pricing reflects today’s risks and returns. This is exactly what I am seeing in live pricing discussions and negotiations right now. Insurance remains one of the biggest issues for retail owners. Property insurance markets became more stable in 2025, and rate increases slowed in some areas. However, insurers are still selective. Coverage terms matter more than ever, especially for properties exposed to wildfire or coastal risk⁴. Insurance costs directly affect net income, lease negotiations, and buyer interest. Retail Outlook for Q1 and Q2 2026 In early 2026, the retail market is likely to stay steady but measured. Vacancy is expected to remain near current levels. Leasing will be deliberate, not rushed. Rents should hold close to where they ended in 2025 as owners and tenants continue to agree on realistic pricing. Capital will remain active for properties with solid income, strong tenant credit, and durable lease terms. Buyers are selective, but they are still moving forward when risk and return are properly aligned. Insurance markets will stay selective in the first half of 2026. Owners need to plan renewals carefully and understand how insurance affects operating costs, tenant negotiations, and future sale value. Here is a simple retail risk check for 2026: • Local vacancy around 6 percent, stable but uneven by location¹ • Leasing takes longer than peak years, making pricing discipline critical² • Capital remains active, but underwriting is conservative⁵ • Insurance coverage is improving in some areas, but terms still matter⁴ Not all retail performs the same. Discretionary-driven destinations like lifestyle centers, nightlife districts, and tourist-focused shopping streets feel more pressure when consumer spending slows. Retail that serves daily needs and essential services tends to perform better during uncertain cycles. The best strategy now is disciplined and data-driven. Focus on tenant credit strength. Protect lease term and income stability. Price based on real market data. Understand insurance risk clearly. This is how value is protected in changing markets. I help retail property owners position assets based on real tenant behavior and real buyer demand. Not headlines. Call or DM me if you want a clear view of how your retail property should be positioned for 2026. How will you adjust your leasing or investment strategy this year based on what the market is actually telling us? #RetailRealEstate #LosAngelesCRE #CommercialRealEstateOutlook #RetailInvestment #CRE2026 #MarcRetailGuy
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