Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • January 30, 2026
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A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

Smoothie King plots 90-plus new openings for 2026

The world’s largest smoothie franchise isn’t planning on slowing down its growth after a strong 2025.



Smoothie King says it plans to open more than 90 new store openings in 2026, in addition to launching a targeted franchisee incentive program spanning several key states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and more. Through the program, Smoothie King says it is offering financial incentives to “growth-minded franchisees,” designed to accelerate brand awareness and density in these markets...


The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Whole Foods Expansion Boosted by Amazon Store Conversions

Amazon is making a decisive shift in its grocery division, announcing plans to shutter its Amazon Fresh supermarkets and Amazon Go convenience stores. Select locations from these chains will be repurposed as new Whole Foods Market stores, per CNBC. This move represents the latest in a series of strategic adjustments to grow Amazon’s presence in the US grocery market...

A tray holding a large double cheeseburger piled with lettuce, a side of french fries, ketchup, and a milkshake.

FAT Brands Enters Bankruptcy Amid Debt Struggles

FAT Brands filed for bankruptcy on Monday as it seeks to restructure more than $1.4 billion in debt tied to an aggressive acquisition strategy, according to court documents.


The filing includes FAT Brands, Twin Hospitality Group (parent of Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones), and dozens of affiliated entities. The company intends to continue operating normally while negotiating with lenders. Trading of FAT Brands’ shares will continue with a “Q” suffix, which signals the company is in bankruptcy proceedings and that the stock carries higher risk...

Map showing the Sepulveda Transit Corridor project routes, including heavy rail and transit rail lines in the LA Metro area.

Metro approves underground rail line through the Sepulveda Pass

The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Board of Directors has unanimously approved an all-underground heavy rail subway as the preferred route for the Sepulveda Transit Corridor, selecting a nearly 13-mile alignment designed to connect the San Fernando Valley with the Westside in under 20 minutes...

A low-angle view of a blue Paris Baguette storefront sign with white lettering.

Paris Baguette plots big expansion for 2026 — and beyond

Paris Baguette is touting 2025 as its most successful year yet as it continued to expand its footprint of cafes.



The global bakery cafe chain opened 77 new stores last year, including a record of 14 in December alone. It also signed 101 new leases for future locations and signed nearly 300 development agreements...


A PayMore storefront with a green sign under a cloudy sky.

PayMore to open 90-plus stores in 2026 — here's where

PayMore has its sights set on continued growth in the new year.



The buy-sell-trade electronics franchise plans to open 96 new stores across the United States and Canada in 2026, an average of eight new openings per month (full list at end of article). Last year, PayMore reached 100 stores, and the company has no plans of slowing down its expansion...

A person in a blue shirt holds a green shopping basket while reaching for a product on a grocery store shelf.

Bain & Co.: U.S. retail sales to grow 3.5% in 2026

Retail sales growth will slow in the U.S., U.K., France and Germany in 2026.


That’s according to Bain & Company’s 2026 Global Retail Sales Outlook, which projects U.S. retail sales will grow 3.5% year over year in 2026, to $5.3 trillion, slightly down from estimated 4.0% growth in 2025. Volume growth will be modest, with inflation projected to hover between 2.6% and 3.0%...


A low-angle view of the iconic Macy's department store in New York City, featuring its signature red star signage.

Retail Openings Edge Up as Closings Slow in 2026


According to CoStar, despite early-year headlines about Macy’s, Saks Global, and Francesca’s shuttering stores, US retail openings are set to tick upward in 2026. Industry analysts from Coresight Research and Telsey Advisory Group both forecast a modest increase in new store launches, with projections in the 1.4% to 4% range compared to last year. Store closings, while still significant, are expected to decelerate after a year that outperformed liquidation expectations...


A BJ's Wholesale Club storefront under a clear blue sky, with a parking lot featuring several cars in the foreground.

BJ’s opening three stores in January — including smaller-format concept

BJ’s Wholesale Club’s expansion plans for January include the opening of its second smaller-format location.

The membership warehouse club retailer will open its second location under the BJ’s Market banner on Jan, 30, in Delray Beach, Fla. At 55,000 sq. ft., the store is about half the size of a BJ’s club. The smaller footprint is designed to offer a convenient grocery shopping experience featuring essential fresh foods, produce, sundries and seasonal products...


A red Target bullseye logo mounted on a light-colored brick exterior wall under a clear blue sky.

Target in big expansion of beauty — complete with new in-store experience

Target continues to expand and elevate its beauty profile.

The retailer is expanding its assortment with nearly 3,000 new products, and more than 60 new brands. More than 90% of the items are priced under $20, according to Target...


Four Starbucks holiday-themed paper cups with different festive patterns, standing in a row on a wooden table.

Starbucks upbeat; posts first U.S. comp sales growth in two years for Q1


Starbucks Corp.'s turnaround appears to be gaining increased momentum.

The coffee giant reported its first quarter of North America and U.S. same-store sales growth in two years in the period ended Dec. 28. North America and U.S. comparable store sales rose 4%, driven by a 3% increase in comparable transactions and a 1% increase in average ticket...


By Marc Perlof • October 28, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A lease guaranty can become less useful if the tenant changes entities, the guaranty expires, or a later agreement releases a guarantor. That can affect your income security, refinancing options, and property value. The main owner decision is whether the guaranty still supports your planned hold, refinance, renewal, or sale. Why Should You Review a Lease Guarantee Every Few Years? Many owners review the lease when they buy the property and do not examine the guaranty again until there is a tenant problem or planned sale. During that time, the tenant may be acquired, reorganized, assigned to another entity, or operating under a guaranty that is capped, reduced, or approaching expiration. A review every few years can help you identify those issues while you still have time to respond. Annual Lease Guarantee Review Checklist 1. Confirm the Current Tenant and Every Guarantor Start with the exact legal name of the tenant currently responsible for the lease. Then identify every company or individual that signed a guaranty. Do not rely on the brand name displayed at the property. The company on the sign may not be the legal tenant or the entity supporting the rent. Confirm whether the guaranty comes from the national parent ompany, a subsidiary, an affiliate, a franchise operator, a location-specific LLC, an individual, or more than one guarantor. 2. Check What the Guaranty Covers and When It Ends A signed guaranty may not cover every lease obligation for the entire lease term. Determine whether it is full, capped, reduced over time, limited to certain lease years, or restricted to specific obligations. It may cover base rent but exclude additional rent, property expenses, repair obligations, or legal costs. Compare the guaranty term with the remaining lease term. Do not assume that a lease extension automatically extends the guaranty. 3. Review Later Documents and Ownership Changes The original lease and guaranty may have been changed by later documents. Review amendments, extensions, assignments, assumption agreements, landlord consents, estoppel certificates, ownership change notices, and any guarantor releases or replacements. A tenant may continue using the same brand while the legal tenant, ownership structure, or guarantor changes behind the scenes. When the relationship among the tenant, guarantor, parent company, and affiliates is unclear, request an organizational chart or entity structure. The chart can explain how the companies are connected, but the lease and guaranty documents still determine who is legally responsible. Qualified legal counsel should confirm unclear obligations. 4. Review the Guarantor’s Current Financial Support A guaranty is only as useful as the company or person behind it. Depending on your lease rights and the information available, review current financial information, rent payment history, operating locations, recent closures, ownership changes, and whether the guarantor still appears to own meaningful assets. The goal is not to complete a full credit analysis. It is to determine whether the support behind your rent is still consistent with what you believed when you bought the property or negotiated the lease. 5. Compare the Guaranty with Your Ownership Plan The value of a guaranty depends partly on what you plan to do with the property. If you expect to hold for several years, determine whether the guaranty lasts through your planned ownership period. If you think you are going to refinance, renew, or sell, consider whether the guaranty will still provide meaningful support at that time. You should also consider what happens if the tenant leaves. Contract rent, market rent, vacancy downtime, leasing commissions, tenant improvement costs, repairs, and replacement demand can all affect NOI, capital needs, and net sale proceeds. The central question is whether the guaranty, the underlying real estate, or both support your next major ownership decision. Owner Self Assessment Could you clearly explain who guarantees your largest tenant’s rent, what the guaranty covers, when it ends, and whether it still supports your ownership plan? Reviewing your lease guaranty every few years can help you identify income, financing, vacancy, and value risks before they limit your options. Contact me for the expanded Retail Lease Guarantee Review Checklist . It includes a more detailed document list, guarantor review questions, financial and ownership checks, vacancy and replacement cost considerations, and a one page owner summary you can use before a refinance, renewal, hold, or sale decision. Are you relying on a guaranty that will still provide meaningful support when you refinance, renew the lease, or sell the property? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #NetLease #LeaseGuarantee #CorporateGuarantee #TenantCredit #PropertyValue #RetailInvesting #InvestmentSales #MarcRetailGuy #MarcPerlof
By Marc Perlof • October 26, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A lease guaranty can become less useful if the tenant changes entities, the guaranty expires, or a later agreement releases a guarantor. That can affect your income security, refinancing options, and property value. The main owner decision is whether the guaranty still supports your planned hold, refinance, renewal, or sale. Why Should You Review a Lease Guarantee Every Few Years? Many owners review the lease when they buy the property and do not examine the guaranty again until there is a tenant problem or planned sale. During that time, the tenant may be acquired, reorganized, assigned to another entity, or operating under a guaranty that is capped, reduced, or approaching expiration. A review every few years can help you identify those issues while you still have time to respond. Annual Lease Guarantee Review Checklist 1. Confirm the Current Tenant and Every Guarantor Start with the exact legal name of the tenant currently responsible for the lease. Then identify every company or individual that signed a guaranty. Do not rely on the brand name displayed at the property. The company on the sign may not be the legal tenant or the entity supporting the rent. Confirm whether the guaranty comes from the national parent ompany, a subsidiary, an affiliate, a franchise operator, a location-specific LLC, an individual, or more than one guarantor. 2. Check What the Guaranty Covers and When It Ends A signed guaranty may not cover every lease obligation for the entire lease term. Determine whether it is full, capped, reduced over time, limited to certain lease years, or restricted to specific obligations. It may cover base rent but exclude additional rent, property expenses, repair obligations, or legal costs. Compare the guaranty term with the remaining lease term. Do not assume that a lease extension automatically extends the guaranty. 3. Review Later Documents and Ownership Changes The original lease and guaranty may have been changed by later documents. Review amendments, extensions, assignments, assumption agreements, landlord consents, estoppel certificates, ownership change notices, and any guarantor releases or replacements. A tenant may continue using the same brand while the legal tenant, ownership structure, or guarantor changes behind the scenes. When the relationship among the tenant, guarantor, parent company, and affiliates is unclear, request an organizational chart or entity structure. The chart can explain how the companies are connected, but the lease and guaranty documents still determine who is legally responsible. Qualified legal counsel should confirm unclear obligations. 4. Review the Guarantor’s Current Financial Support A guaranty is only as useful as the company or person behind it. Depending on your lease rights and the information available, review current financial information, rent payment history, operating locations, recent closures, ownership changes, and whether the guarantor still appears to own meaningful assets. The goal is not to complete a full credit analysis. It is to determine whether the support behind your rent is still consistent with what you believed when you bought the property or negotiated the lease. 5. Compare the Guaranty with Your Ownership Plan The value of a guaranty depends partly on what you plan to do with the property. If you expect to hold for several years, determine whether the guaranty lasts through your planned ownership period. If you think you are going to refinance, renew, or sell, consider whether the guaranty will still provide meaningful support at that time. You should also consider what happens if the tenant leaves. Contract rent, market rent, vacancy downtime, leasing commissions, tenant improvement costs, repairs, and replacement demand can all affect NOI, capital needs, and net sale proceeds. The central question is whether the guaranty, the underlying real estate, or both support your next major ownership decision. Owner Self Assessment Could you clearly explain who guarantees your largest tenant’s rent, what the guaranty covers, when it ends, and whether it still supports your ownership plan? Reviewing your lease guaranty every few years can help you identify income, financing, vacancy, and value risks before they limit your options. Contact me for the expanded Retail Lease Guarantee Review Checklist . It includes a more detailed document list, guarantor review questions, financial and ownership checks, vacancy and replacement cost considerations, and a one page owner summary you can use before a refinance, renewal, hold, or sale decision. Are you relying on a guaranty that will still provide meaningful support when you refinance, renew the lease, or sell the property? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #NetLease #LeaseGuarantee #CorporateGuarantee #TenantCredit #PropertyValue #RetailInvesting #InvestmentSales #MarcRetailGuy #MarcPerlof
By Marc Perlof • October 23, 2026
How the ‘Walmart effect’ is major warning sign for the American economy Walmart may be the siren before an economic storm - at least that's what one financial expert believes. Economist Jim Paulsen calls his theory the "Walmart Recession Signal" (WRS). When Walmart's stock goes up and shares of luxury companies in the S&P Global Luxury Index go down, it's a sign that the country may be headed for a recession...
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