Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 13, 2026
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US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices


WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East.



The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

PopUp Bagels’ ‘Conservatively Aggressive’ Growth Strategy Gains Traction Across U.S.


Tory Bartlett began as PopUp Bagels CEO in October 2024, and it wasn’t too long afterward that the chain began putting together an FDD and a franchising website.


That’s because the engine was already there. The concept began in 2020 as a fun pandemic activity for founder Adam Goldberg, but virality across social media—in large part due to the bagels’ smaller, crispier texture and unique schmears—catapulted the brand into the spotlight...


Grocery Outlet Bargain Market storefront in a strip mall with a large red sign and parking lot under a cloudy blue sky.

Grocery Outlet’s closing of three dozen US stores marks rare retreat among discounters

In a rare pullback by a U.S. discounter, Grocery Outlet is closing three dozen underperforming stores this year, most on the East Coast, even as other lower-cost supermarket chains such as Aldi and Lidl are rapidly expanding their retail property nationally.


Grocery Outlet, an Emeryville, California-based specialty retailer, unveiled its plan as it posted a fiscal fourth-quarter net loss of $218.2 million, compared with $2.3 million in net income in the prior-year period. Comparable store sales slipped about 1%...


A person holding an open blue wallet containing several US dollar bills.

NRF: Retail sales grow in February for fifth consecutive month

Retail sales grew again in February on both a month over month and year over year basis.

Core retail sales (excluding restaurants, auto dealers and gas stations) inched up 0.28% month over month in February and were up 6.24% year over year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released Wednesday, March 10, by the National Retail Federation...

A square black sign with the white cursive

Saks Global reveals more Saks, Neiman store closings — here are the locations


Saks Global continues its planned "optimization" across its store portfolio. 

The luxury retail company, which filed for bankruptcy protection in January, announced a new round of store closings that include 12 Saks Fifth Avenue locations and 3 Neiman Marcus stores (all locations listed at end of article). The stores are expected to remain open through May...

Exterior view of a Costco Wholesale warehouse building featuring a red logo against a gray, horizontally-paneled facade.

Costco tops estimates; eyes 28 new openings, with 30-plus in ‘coming years’


Costco Wholesale Corp. maintained momentum during its holiday quarter with better-than-expected earnings and sales fueled by strong consumer demand in-store and online.

On the company’s earnings call, executives said Costco expects to have 28 net new openings in its current fiscal year, and is targeting 30-plus new opening annually in the “coming years...” 

A blue Ross Dress for Less sign mounted on the white facade of a building against a clear blue sky.

Ross Stores opens 17 locations in February, March — here's where

Ross Stores Inc. is heading into spring with an expanded store footprint.

The off-price apparel giant is opening 17 new stores in February and March, including 13 Ross Dress for Less stores and four DD’s Discounts locations across 11 states (full list of new locations found at later in article)...

A map of the United States showing a dense cluster of red pins and a few green pins concentrated in the eastern half.

Walmart closes stores in February


Family Dollar stores closures hit the triple digits in February as the retailer continues to develop a new strategy. A total of 100 Family Dollar locations were closed with many happening in the South and Southeast, according to the latest data provided by ScrapeHero. 

Walmart closed four stores, including three Sam’s Club locations in Fayetteville, Ark., Indianapolis, Ind., and Lebanon, Tenn. The Walmart store that closed was in Bentonville, Ark. Dollar Tree closed 9 stores, including three in California. Walgreens closed 6 locations...


A brick strip mall featuring a Crunch Fitness gym and a chiropractic office under a clear blue sky.

It's official: Fitness centers, pickleball courts, other services now dominate retail real estate

Retail leasing reached a structural turning point in 2025. For the first year on record, service-based retailers leased more space than traditional goods-based tenants.

And while the margin was narrow, 50.4% services to 49.6% goods, the crossover is meaningful as it reflects the long-running reallocation of consumer spending and the continued evolution of physical retail space toward uses that are less vulnerable to e-commerce...

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • October 23, 2026
How the ‘Walmart effect’ is major warning sign for the American economy Walmart may be the siren before an economic storm - at least that's what one financial expert believes. Economist Jim Paulsen calls his theory the "Walmart Recession Signal" (WRS). When Walmart's stock goes up and shares of luxury companies in the S&P Global Luxury Index go down, it's a sign that the country may be headed for a recession...

AB 2418: Can California AB 2418 Reduce Permit Delays That Hold Up Rent?

By Marc Perlof • October 21, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 21, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. As of September 30, 2026, California has passed AB 2418,² a new law aimed at reducing certain delays in commercial plan checks and inspections. For retail property owners, that matters because every extra month a tenant waits for approvals can mean another month before the space opens and starts producing rent. AB 2418 applies statewide, including cities such as Los Angeles, Inglewood, Malibu, Santa Monica and more.¹ What Does AB 2418 Change? For qualifying commercial permit applications, cities and counties must provide an estimated timeframe for determining whether a complete application meets permit standards.¹ The law also creates another option when certain plan checks take too long. An excessive delay generally means the city takes, or says it expects to take, more than 30 business days to complete the first structural building safety plan check after receiving a complete application.¹ If the city returns the plans for corrections, the law also looks at the total review time. If the initial review plus the review of the corrected plans goes beyond 60 days , that can also qualify as an excessive delay.¹ If there is an excessive delay, the applicant can ask the city or county to use a private entity to perform the plan check. If the city cannot provide a qualified outside reviewer, the applicant may be able to hire an approved private professional and pay the cost directly. ¹ That professional must meet the law’s licensing and certification requirements. Does This Apply to Every Retail Tenant? No. This is an important limit. The private plan check portion of AB 2418 applies to qualifying tenant improvements in buildings that are generally: One to three stories No more than 40 feet to an occupied floor Group B Business occupancy Limited to an occupant load of 49 or fewer Not a health facility or public building¹ That means a typical Group M retail store should not assume it qualifies for the private plan check provision. However, AB 2418 includes another rule that can be more relevant to traditional retail. For certain completed commercial projects, local building departments must conduct an inspection within 10 business days after receiving notice that the permitted work is complete. This provision covers several occupancy groups, including Group B and Group M.¹ That could matter when construction is finished but a retail tenant is waiting for an inspection before it can move closer to opening. How Could Delays Affect Your NOI? A signed lease does not necessarily mean the owner is collecting rent. Assume a tenant will pay $10,000 per month once rent commencement occurs. If permitting or inspections push that date back by three months, the owner could have $30,000 of delayed rent, depending on the lease terms. During that period, the owner may still be paying taxes, insurance, utilities, debt service, and other property expenses. This is why permitting should be part of lease underwriting, not something considered only after the lease is signed. Why Should Medical and Dental Owners Pay Attention? Many professional office, medical, and dental uses may fall within Group B occupancy depending on the specific use, building, and patient conditions. That means AB 2418 may be more relevant to certain medical or dental tenant improvements than laws aimed specifically at traditional retailers. But owners should not assume a particular medical or dental project qualifies. The project's architect and local building department should confirm the occupancy classification and eligibility. What Should Retail Property Owners Do? Before signing a lease involving tenant improvements, confirm the property's occupancy classification and expected permit timeline. Review exactly when rent starts under the lease. If commencement depends on permits, construction, opening, or final approvals, delays can shift meaningful income into a later period. For projects that may qualify for AB 2418, ask the tenant's architect and local building department whether the new plan check or inspection rules could apply. The main owner decision is to understand the permitting risk before you agree to the final lease terms. Owner Self Assessment If your next tenant's opening is delayed by 60 or 90 days, how much rent and expense reimbursement would you lose before the property reaches its expected NOI? Final Takeaway AB 2418 may shorten certain commercial plan check and inspection delays, but owners need to understand which parts of the law actually apply to their tenant and property. If you're reviewing a lease, tenant improvement plan, or vacancy where permitting could delay rent, call or DM me. I can help you compare the expected downtime, income, and effect on property value before you make the decision. Sources ¹ California AB 2418 bill text and history ² Governor of California announcement Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #CaliforniaRetailRealEstate #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #AB2418 #RetailLeasing #CommercialPermits #TenantImprovements #PropertyOwners #CaliforniaRealEstate

Can Lease Guarantees Affect Your Retail Property’s Value?

By Marc Perlof • October 19, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 19, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Your property’s value may depend partly on who guarantees the rent, not just on the tenant’s name or current payment history. If the guaranty is weaker, shorter, or more limited than you think, it may affect your refinancing options, sale strategy, negotiating leverage, and expected proceeds. The main retail property owner decision is whether the property’s value is supported by verified tenant credit, strong underlying real estate, or a combination of both. What Owners Commonly Miss Many owners focus on the national brand, current rent, and remaining lease term. Those factors matter, but they do not tell you how much of your property’s value depends on the guaranty. Two properties may have the same tenant brand, rent, and lease term but different levels of support. One lease may be guaranteed by the national parent company. Another may be backed by a franchise operator, subsidiary, affiliate, smaller LLC, or individual. That does not automatically make one property good and the other bad. It means the owner should understand where the investment’s value comes from. If the guaranty is strong, buyers and lenders may place more confidence in the future rent. If the guaranty is limited or unclear, they may rely more heavily on the property’s location, market rent, replacement tenant demand, and the cost of a future vacancy. Before setting a value, refinancing, renewing the lease, or deciding when to sell, determine how much of your expected price depends on tenant credit. How Much of Your Property’s Value Depends on the Guarantee? A lease guaranty may support value by increasing confidence that the rent will continue through the remaining lease term. That support may be stronger when: The guarantor is financially stable The guaranty lasts through the lease term The obligations are not heavily capped or limited The tenant’s rent appears sustainable The location remains important to the tenant The guaranty may provide less support when it expires early, burns off, becomes capped, is released after an assignment, or comes from an entity with limited assets. The owner should also consider whether the lease can stand on its own without the guaranty. A long lease with above market rent may appear valuable while the tenant remains in place, but the property could face a different value if the tenant leaves and the space must be leased at a lower rent. This is why owners should separate two questions: How reliable is the current income? What is the property worth if that income changes or disappears? The stronger your answer to both questions, the more flexibility you may have when deciding whether to hold, refinance, renew, or sell. How Can the Guarantee Affect Pricing? Buyer behavior matters because it helps determine what your property may be worth in the market. Assume your property produces $250,000 in annual NOI. At a 6.00% cap rate, the indicated value would be approximately $4,167,000 At a 6.50% cap rate, the indicated value would be approximately $3,846,000 That is a difference of approximately $321,000 even though the NOI did not change. This example does not mean a weaker guaranty automatically creates a 50 basis point difference. It shows how a change in perceived income risk can affect pricing. If buyers view the guaranty as strong and dependable, they may accept a lower return. If they see more tenant credit risk, they may require a higher return, offer less, or place more weight on the real estate than on the lease income. Financing may also affect the result. Some lenders may be more comfortable with leases backed by financially transparent or stronger guarantors. If fewer buyers can obtain financing or become comfortable with the lease structure, competition may decrease. For the owner, the practical question is not simply what cap rate similar properties achieved. It is whether buyers will view your income as equally secure. What Protects Value If the Tenant Leaves? A strong guaranty can support value, but it should not replace an evaluation of the real estate. Your property may still hold value if it has: A strong location Rent below market Flexible building design Good visibility and access Strong replacement tenant demand Limited future capital needs Your value may face more pressure if the property has specialized improvements, above market rent, weak replacement demand, deferred maintenance, or a large amount of lease rollover risk. A future vacancy can create more than lost rent. It may also require tenant improvements, leasing commissions, free rent, repairs, demolition, or time to complete a new lease. Those costs can reduce NOI, increase capital needs, and affect net sale proceeds. The owner should understand whether the property is attractive because of the tenant, because of the real estate, or because both are strong. What Should Retail Property Owners Do Now? Confirm the exact tenant and guarantor. Do not assume a national brand means the parent company supports the lease. Review how long the guaranty lasts and what it covers. Determine whether it is full, capped, reduced, temporary, or affected by an assignment or ownership change. Evaluate the property without the current tenant. Estimate market rent, possible downtime, leasing commissions, tenant improvement costs, repairs, and replacement-tenant demand. That review can help you decide whether to: Sell while the current lease and guaranty remain attractive Seek stronger support during a renewal Refinance before the lease or guaranty weakens Hold because the underlying real estate remains valuable Adjust pricing expectations before going to market The goal is not to predict every future problem. It is to understand what supports your value before a buyer, lender, vacancy, or lease expiration forces the question. In next week’s blog, “What Retail Property Owners Should Review Before Relying on a Lease Guarantee,” I’ll explain what owners should verify with guarantor information before buying, refinancing, renewing, or selling a retail property. Final Takeaway Your property’s value depends not only on the rent being paid, but also on who stands behind that income and what the real estate is worth if the tenant leaves. If you are considering a sale, refinance, or lease renewal, call or DM me. I can help you compare the guaranty, lease term, replacement costs, underlying real estate, and the value buyers may place on your income. If the tenant and guaranty disappeared tomorrow, would your location, market rent, and replacement demand still support your expected property value? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #NetLease #LeaseGuarantee #CorporateGuarantee #TenantCredit #PropertyValue #RetailInvesting #InvestmentSales #MarcRetailGuy #MarcPerlof
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