Your Retail Property Is Worth More Than You Think. Here's the Proof!
Marc Perlof • April 20, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy
CA #01489206
April 21, 2026
If you own retail real estate, here's what just changed for you.
The supply drought in retail is no longer a temporary condition. In Southern California, where available retail space was already scarce before construction costs spiked, it has become a structural advantage for owners. Fewer new competition means higher rents, tighter vacancy, and growing buyer demand for what you already own.
What Is the Supply Drought?
For over 15 years, developers have barely built any new retail space. That is not an accident. It is the result of rising construction costs, tighter lending, and weak developer confidence following the so-called retail apocalypse narrative.
The numbers tell the story clearly. According to CBRE, annual retail construction completions from 2021 through 2023 fell by more than 80% compared to the mid-2000s. Construction starts hit all-time lows in both 2024 and 2025, according to Newmark's 2026 Sector Outlook. Colliers forecasts new retail construction will fall another 37% in 2026.¹
There is simply no new supply coming. And that matters enormously for what your property is worth today.
What Is Causing It?
Three forces are keeping new supply off the market simultaneously.
First, construction costs remain elevated. Steel, aluminum, and copper are all subject to significant tariff pressure, which has driven up hard costs on any new development. Second, lenders are cautious. Retail lending has improved but has not fully recovered. Financing new ground-up retail is still expensive and difficult. Third, most developers who would normally deliver new product are focused on redevelopment, not new construction. Ground-up speculative retail is largely off the table for now.
The result is a market where existing retail owners hold an advantage that cannot be easily replicated or replaced.
Why Does This Matter for Your Property Value?
How does limited supply affect rent?
When tenants cannot find new space, they compete harder for existing space. That competition drives rent. According to JLL's Q2 2025 Retail Dynamics report, retail vacancy nationally sat at 4.3% at the end of the second quarter of 2025, with rent growing 2% year over year.² Colliers projects nationwide rent growth of approximately 1.5% for 2026, supported entirely by the lack of new supply. In supply-constrained markets like Southern California, rent growth at renewal has been running well above that average.
Occupancy rates in REIT portfolios are holding at approximately 95%, according to Nareit analysis of Q3 2025 REIT earnings. That is not a cyclical number. That is a structural one.
How are buyers underwriting retail today?
Institutional capital has returned to retail in force, and they are underwriting it aggressively. According to JLL, the volume of institutional bids on retail properties being marketed for sale grew 102% over the past two years. REIT bid volume increased 117% over the same period.
According to Northmarq, they are seeing sales activity and buyers paying more for the same income, which means your property is worth more today than it was two years ago across active shopping center markets. In California alone, 18 deals in the second half of 2025 exceeded $100 million, according to ICSC reporting. U.S. retail property sales rose 26% to $71.6 billion in 2025, according to MSCI.³
This is what happens when institutional money competes for a shrinking pool of quality assets.
What Should You Do Right Now?
- Understand your rent position relative to market. If your current leases were signed two or more years ago, there is a strong probability your in-place rents are below today's market. That gap represents unrealized value. Document it. A well-presented rent roll showing rent-to-market spread is one of the strongest tools you have in a sale or refinance.
- Push rents at renewal. This is not the time to roll over leases at flat rates. Tenants have nowhere else to go. Demand for retail space is high and available supply is near record lows. Landlords in supply-constrained markets have real pricing power. Use it.
- Assess your hold vs. sell timing. Institutional capital is actively deploying into retail right now. Bid volume is at its highest level since 2016. If you have been waiting for the market to stabilize before selling, that moment is here. Cap rate compression in well-located strip centers and shopping centers is real and documented. Waiting longer depends entirely on your basis, your lease structure, and what you plan to do with the proceeds.
Real Deal Insight
In conversations I'm having with buyers right now, the first thing they ask for is the spread between in-place rents and current market. That number is driving offers more than cap rate right now. In active retail investment transactions today, buyers are paying close attention to the spread between in-place rents and current market rents. Properties showing significant upside to market are receiving aggressive offers. Strip centers and unanchored centers with short remaining lease terms are being underwritten with meaningful rent growth assumptions baked in, which is directly compressing cap rates and pushing values higher.
Owner Self-Assessment
If your leases were signed more than 24 months ago, do you actually know how far below market your rents are sitting right now?
Do you know what a buyer is underwriting (How a buyer decides what your property is worth to them) your property at today, versus what you think it's worth?
And if institutional capital is actively competing for assets like yours, do you have a broker with the market exposure to put your property in front of that demand?
If any of those answers are unclear, that's the conversation worth having.
If you couldn't answer those questions with confidence, let's talk. A 20-minute call is all it takes to tell you where your property stands today.
If institutional capital is competing harder than ever for retail properties, the real question is: are you positioned to capture that demand, or are you leaving money on the table?
Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.
#RetailRealEstate #RetailREIT #ShoppingCenterInvestment #StripCenters #CommercialRealEstate #SouthernCalifornia #LosAngelesRealEstate #RetailInvestment #NNNProperties #CRE #MarcPerlof #MarcRetailGuy
Sources
² JLL, Q2 2025 Retail Dynamics Report, citing CoStar data.; Nareit, Retail REITs Supported by Tight Supply, October 2025:
Disclaimer
This post is for information only. It is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Always check with a licensed professional before making decisions.
© 2026 Marc Perlof Group. All rights reserved.
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By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 14, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. As of September 30, 2026,² California has passed AB 1679, a new law designed to make it easier for qualifying small businesses to temporarily operate in existing commercial space. For retail property owners, that could create another way to activate a vacant storefront, generate activity, and possibly collect temporary income while searching for a long term tenant.¹ The law applies statewide, including cities such as Los Angeles, Inglewood, Culver City, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and other California cities and counties.¹ How Does AB 1679 Work? AB 1679 allows a qualifying pop up small business to operate in eligible commercial space for up to 120 days under a temporary commercial activation authorization.¹ Local governments may also allow extensions or renewals. If temporary use of the same space goes beyond a total of 12 months within a 24 month period, the city or county may require the normal permanent occupancy process.¹ The law generally covers temporary businesses operating in Group B Business or Group M Mercantile occupancies with a total occupant load of no more than 49 people, including customers and employees.¹ There is no single maximum square footage because the allowed occupant load depends on how the space is used and laid out. For example, a retail sales area using 60 square feet per occupant would reach 49 occupants at about 2,940 square feet. But a store with a large stockroom or office area could have a different calculation, so owners should confirm the actual occupant load for their specific space. That can make the law relevant to many traditional retail and service spaces. The existing space must meet several requirements. It generally must already have been designed or used for commercial purposes, cannot be undergoing structural alterations, and cannot require changes to fire resistant building elements.¹ Health, safety, fire, and accessibility rules still apply. How Do You Apply? AB 1679 does not create one statewide application. The property owner or tenant will need to apply through the city or county where the property is located for a temporary commercial activation authorization. Each jurisdiction may use its existing permitting system or create a new AB 1679 process, so owners should check with the local building or planning department before offering the space to a temporary tenant. Why Could This Matter to a Retail Owner? Vacancy costs money. Assume a vacant storefront could produce $8,000 per month under a permanent lease. Six months of vacancy represents $48,000 of potential lost rent before considering property taxes, insurance, utilities, security, and other carrying costs. A temporary tenant will not necessarily replace that entire amount. But AB 1679 could give some owners another option besides leaving the storefront dark while waiting for the right permanent tenant. Possible uses could include a seasonal retailer, a business testing a new location, or another qualifying temporary commercial use. There may also be a nonfinancial benefit. An occupied storefront can create activity at a shopping center that might otherwise have dark space. Should You Treat Pop up Rent Like Permanent NOI? No. Temporary income and permanent lease income are not the same thing. A buyer evaluating your property will still want to know when the temporary tenant leaves, what rent a permanent tenant could pay, how much tenant improvement money may be needed, and how long the next lease up could take. A 120 day pop up can help reduce carrying costs, but it should not automatically be treated like income from a long term lease. What Should Retail Property Owners Do? Confirm the vacant space’s existing occupancy classification and whether the proposed temporary tenant qualifies under AB 1679. Compare the economics of temporary occupancy with leaving the space vacant. Consider rent, operating expenses, improvements, insurance, and how easily the temporary tenant can leave if you find a permanent tenant. Confirm the local approval process with the city or county before making commitments to a pop up tenant. The main question is whether temporary occupancy helps reduce your vacancy cost without creating a new leasing problem. Owner Self-Assessment If one of your storefronts stayed vacant for another six months, how much rent and expense reimbursement would you lose, and could a temporary tenant reduce some of that cost? Final Takeaway AB 1679 may give California retail property owners another tool for putting qualifying vacant commercial space to work while pursuing a permanent leasing strategy. If you're evaluating whether to keep a storefront vacant, use it temporarily, or wait for a long term tenant, call or DM me. I can help you compare the income, downtime, and value implications of each option. Sources 1 California AB 1679 bill text and history 2 Governor of California announcement Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #CaliforniaRetailRealEstate #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #AB1679 #RetailLeasing #VacantRetail #PopUpRetail #PropertyOwners #CaliforniaRealEstate
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 13, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A larger company or private equity firm can acquire your tenant without becoming responsible for the lease. If you assume the new owner supports the rent when it does not, that uncertainty can affect your income risk, financing, negotiating leverage, and future sale price. The main decision is simple: verify which tenant and guarantors remain legally responsible after the ownership change. What Owners Commonly Miss A tenant may continue using the same name, operating from the same location, and paying the same rent after a sale. From the outside, nothing may appear to have changed. Behind the scenes, the ownership structure may be different. The original tenant may remain in place, the lease may move to another entity, or an existing guarantor may remain responsible, be replaced, or be released. An acquisition may improve the tenant’s operations through better access to capital, stronger management, or greater purchasing power. However, a stronger new owner does not automatically give the landlord direct rights against that company. The reverse is also possible. The tenant may take on more debt, move assets among related companies, close locations, or reorganize under smaller entities. The brand may remain familiar while the financial support behind the rent changes. Does the New Owner Automatically Guarantee the Lease? Usually, no. When a company buys the tenant or its parent company, the new owner does not automatically become a guarantor simply because it now controls the business. The legal tenant may remain the same entity and continue to be responsible for the lease. However, that does not mean the buyer, its parent company, or the new corporate owner has agreed to support the tenant’s obligations. In some transactions, the new parent company does become a guarantor. This is less common and generally happens only when the new parent expressly signs a guaranty, assumes an existing guaranty, or agrees to provide lease support as part of an assignment, landlord consent, lease amendment, or acquisition agreement. The important question is not just, “Who bought the tenant?” It is, “Did the new owner or parent company sign a document making it responsible for the lease?” A recognizable new owner may improve the tenant’s business outlook, but that alone does not create lease liability. The documents must clearly show who remains responsible and whether the new parent company has agreed to stand behind the rent. The structure of the transaction may help identify what needs to be reviewed: Stock or ownership interest sale: The owners of the tenant company change, but the legal tenant may remain the same. Asset sale: The buyer purchases selected assets, and the lease may require a separate assignment or agreement. Merger or restructuring: The tenant may be combined with or moved under another entity. The legal result depends on the lease, guaranty, assignment, consent, and transaction documents. Qualified legal counsel should confirm which entities remain responsible. An acquisition announcement alone does not answer the question. The owner must determine whether the acquiring company signed anything that makes it responsible for the rent. How Can an Ownership Change Affect Your Property’s Value? Retail property buyers and lenders want to know who supports the future income. If a well capitalized acquiring company signs a new guaranty, the lease may appear more secure. That can improve buyer confidence and support financing. If an existing guarantor is released, the lease moves to a weaker entity, or responsibility becomes unclear, buyers may: Request more financial information Require a higher return or offer a lower price Place more weight on the underlying real estate and replacement tenant demand An ownership change does not automatically increase or decrease property value. The effect depends on whether the support behind the rent became stronger, weaker, or simply less clear. Uncertainty usually works against the owner during a refinance or sale. A buyer who cannot confirm the tenant and guarantor structure may reduce the value assigned to the lease, extend due diligence, or negotiate more aggressively. The property may still be a strong investment. Location, contract rent, remaining lease term, property condition, vacancy risk, and the cost of replacing the tenant still matter. However, the owner should understand whether the property’s value is supported mainly by tenant credit, the underlying real estate, or both. Real Deal Insight In June 2026, Yum! Brands announced agreements to sell Pizza Hut in the United State only, to private equity firm LongRange Capital. A Pizza Hut property owner should not assume from that announcement alone that LongRange Capital now guarantees the rent for a specific location. The owner must still confirm the legal tenant, existing guarantors, and whether any lease or guaranty documents changed.¹ What Should Retail Property Owners Do Now? Review the complete lease file as soon as you learn that your tenant has been acquired, merged, or reorganized. Do not wait until a refinance, renewal, default, or sale forces the issue. Identify: The legal tenant before and after the transaction Every guarantor that remains responsible Whether the lease was assigned Whether any tenant or guarantor was released Whether the acquiring company signed a new guaranty Review the original lease, guaranty, amendments, assignments, landlord consents, estoppel certificates, ownership change notices, and any replacement or release documents. When the relationship among the tenant, guarantor, parent company, and affiliates is unclear, request an organizational chart or entity structure. The chart can show how the companies are connected, but the lease and guaranty documents still determine who is responsible. Have qualified legal counsel confirm the result. Then create a written record identifying the current tenant, every guarantor, and any limits, releases, or expiration dates. Completing that review early gives you time to correct missing records, understand your income risk, prepare for lender questions, and explain the lease accurately to a future buyer. In next week’s blog, “How Lease Guarantees Affect Your Retail Property’s Value,” I’ll explain how buyers and lenders evaluate guarantor strength and why two properties with similar tenants, rents, and lease terms may receive different pricing. Final Takeaway A tenant’s new owner does not support your rent unless the lease and guaranty documents make that entity responsible. If one of your retail tenants has been acquired, merged, or reorganized, call or DM me. I can help you review how the tenant structure and guaranty may affect buyer underwriting, property value, and your next refinance, renewal, or sale decision. If your tenant changed ownership today, could you identify the current legal tenant, every remaining guarantor, and whether anyone was released? Source “Yum! Brands, Inc. Enters into Agreements to Sell Pizza Hut for $2.7 Billion,” Yum! Brands, Inc., June 16, 2026. https://investors.yum.com/news-events/financial-releases/news-details/2026/Yum-Brands-Inc--Enters-into-Agreements-to-Sell-Pizza-Hut-for-2-7-Billion/default.aspx Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #NetLease #LeaseGuarantee #CorporateGuarantee #TenantCredit #PrivateEquity #InvestmentProperty #RetailInvesting #MarcRetailGuy #MarcPerlof
