Your Retail Property Is Worth More Than You Think. Here's the Proof!

Marc Perlof • April 20, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy 
CA #01489206 

April 21, 2026

If you own retail real estate, here's what just changed for you.

The supply drought in retail is no longer a temporary condition. In Southern California, where available retail space was already scarce before construction costs spiked, it has become a structural advantage for owners. Fewer new competition means higher rents, tighter vacancy, and growing buyer demand for what you already own.

What Is the Supply Drought?
For over 15 years, developers have barely built any new retail space. That is not an accident. It is the result of rising construction costs, tighter lending, and weak developer confidence following the so-called retail apocalypse narrative.

The numbers tell the story clearly. According to CBRE, annual retail construction completions from 2021 through 2023 fell by more than 80% compared to the mid-2000s. Construction starts hit all-time lows in both 2024 and 2025, according to Newmark's 2026 Sector Outlook. Colliers forecasts new retail construction will fall another 37% in 2026.¹

There is simply no new supply coming. And that matters enormously for what your property is worth today.

What Is Causing It?
Three forces are keeping new supply off the market simultaneously.

First, construction costs remain elevated. Steel, aluminum, and copper are all subject to significant tariff pressure, which has driven up hard costs on any new development. Second, lenders are cautious. Retail lending has improved but has not fully recovered. Financing new ground-up retail is still expensive and difficult. Third, most developers who would normally deliver new product are focused on redevelopment, not new construction. Ground-up speculative retail is largely off the table for now.

The result is a market where existing retail owners hold an advantage that cannot be easily replicated or replaced.

Why Does This Matter for Your Property Value?
How does limited supply affect rent?
When tenants cannot find new space, they compete harder for existing space. That competition drives rent. According to JLL's Q2 2025 Retail Dynamics report, retail vacancy nationally sat at 4.3% at the end of the second quarter of 2025, with rent growing 2% year over year.² Colliers projects nationwide rent growth of approximately 1.5% for 2026, supported entirely by the lack of new supply. In supply-constrained markets like Southern California, rent growth at renewal has been running well above that average.

Occupancy rates in REIT portfolios are holding at approximately 95%, according to Nareit analysis of Q3 2025 REIT earnings. That is not a cyclical number. That is a structural one.

How are buyers underwriting retail today?
Institutional capital has returned to retail in force, and they are underwriting it aggressively. According to JLL, the volume of institutional bids on retail properties being marketed for sale grew 102% over the past two years. REIT bid volume increased 117% over the same period.

According to Northmarq, they are seeing sales activity and buyers paying more for the same income, which means your property is worth more today than it was two years ago across active shopping center markets. In California alone, 18 deals in the second half of 2025 exceeded $100 million, according to ICSC reporting. U.S. retail property sales rose 26% to $71.6 billion in 2025, according to MSCI.³
This is what happens when institutional money competes for a shrinking pool of quality assets.

What Should You Do Right Now?
  1. Understand your rent position relative to market. If your current leases were signed two or more years ago, there is a strong probability your in-place rents are below today's market. That gap represents unrealized value. Document it. A well-presented rent roll showing rent-to-market spread is one of the strongest tools you have in a sale or refinance.
  2. Push rents at renewal. This is not the time to roll over leases at flat rates. Tenants have nowhere else to go. Demand for retail space is high and available supply is near record lows. Landlords in supply-constrained markets have real pricing power. Use it.
  3. Assess your hold vs. sell timing. Institutional capital is actively deploying into retail right now. Bid volume is at its highest level since 2016. If you have been waiting for the market to stabilize before selling, that moment is here. Cap rate compression in well-located strip centers and shopping centers is real and documented. Waiting longer depends entirely on your basis, your lease structure, and what you plan to do with the proceeds.

Real Deal Insight
In conversations I'm having with buyers right now, the first thing they ask for is the spread between in-place rents and current market. That number is driving offers more than cap rate right now. In active retail investment transactions today, buyers are paying close attention to the spread between in-place rents and current market rents. Properties showing significant upside to market are receiving aggressive offers. Strip centers and unanchored centers with short remaining lease terms are being underwritten with meaningful rent growth assumptions baked in, which is directly compressing cap rates and pushing values higher.

Owner Self-Assessment
If your leases were signed more than 24 months ago, do you actually know how far below market your rents are sitting right now?

Do you know what a buyer is underwriting (How a buyer decides what your property is worth to them) your property at today, versus what you think it's worth?

And if institutional capital is actively competing for assets like yours, do you have a broker with the market exposure to put your property in front of that demand?

If any of those answers are unclear, that's the conversation worth having.

If you couldn't answer those questions with confidence, let's talk. A 20-minute call is all it takes to tell you where your property stands today.

If institutional capital is competing harder than ever for retail properties, the real question is: are you positioned to capture that demand, or are you leaving money on the table?

Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.

#RetailRealEstate #RetailREIT #ShoppingCenterInvestment #StripCenters #CommercialRealEstate #SouthernCalifornia #LosAngelesRealEstate #RetailInvestment #NNNProperties #CRE #MarcPerlof #MarcRetailGuy


By Marc Perlof July 17, 2026
Sales rise in June for ninth straight month amid sales events The summer shopping season got off to a solid start in June as shoppers took advantage of special seasonal sales events by Amazon and other retailers. Core retail sales rose 0.36% month over month in June — and were up 10.08% year over year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, released by the National Retail Federation . That compared with increases of 0.39% month over month and 6.98% year over year in May. (Core retail sales exclude restaurants, auto dealers and gasoline stations...)
By Marc Perlof July 13, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 July 13, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Last week, we discussed how retail property owners choose the right pricing strategy based on asset type, tenant quality, lease structure, location, and buyer pool. This week, we are looking at the other side of that decision: why do some retail properties sit on the market? Most properties do not sit because there are no buyers. They sit because the market does not believe the price, the story, the income, the risk, or the property isn’t being actively marketed. Buyers are not gone. They are selective. If the price, income, lease structure, and risk do not line up, they move on fast. Buyers are active when the deal makes sense. But when pricing and positioning are off, buyers move on quickly or they lowball. The Market Gives Feedback When a retail property sits with little activity, weak offers, or no serious buyer engagement, the market is saying something. It may be saying the price is too high, the income does not support the value, the lease structure is risky, the tenant mix is weak, the property condition is a concern, financing does not work, or the buyer pool is too limited. Owners may not like the feedback, but ignoring it usually makes the problem worse. The longer a property sits, the more leverage shifts to buyers. Pricing Too High Is the Most Common Problem The most obvious reason a property sits is price. But it is not always as simple as saying the asking price is too high. Sometimes the asking price is high because the seller is using the wrong pricing method. They may be pricing based on when the market was at its last peak, a neighbor’s asking price, replacement cost, loan payoff, a past offer, or the number they want for retirement. Those numbers may matter to the owner. They may not matter to the buyer. Buyers are underwriting today’s income, today’s rates, today’s financing, and today’s risk. If the math does not work, they either pass or write a lower offer. Buyers Do Not Pay for Yesterday’s Market A lot of owners still remember the stronger pricing environment from lower interest rate years. That is understandable, but buyers are not pricing retail properties based on the old cost of capital. They are looking at current interest rates, debt service coverage, insurance costs, property taxes, operating expenses, future leasing risk, and exit cap rates. If the buyer cannot make the math work, they usually do not stretch just because the seller wants yesterday’s price. Poor Positioning Can Kill Buyer Interest Some properties are not badly overpriced. They are poorly positioned. That means the marketing does not clearly explain why the property is worth buying. A strip center may have below market rents, but the marketing only shows current income. A redevelopment site may have zoning upside, but the density and entitlement path are unclear or the current pricing metrics are too high based on development costs. A vacant storefront may have owner user potential, but the marketing is written like a passive investment property. Wrong story. Wrong buyer. Weak activity. Sometimes the Process Is the Problem Sometimes the issue is not the property. It is the process. A listing can sit if the broker is only waiting for inbound calls, using the wrong buyer list, failing to explain the upside, or not following up with the buyers most likely to close. Lease Issues Create Buyer Concern Retail buyers pay close attention to lease structure. A property may look good at first, but buyers may lose interest after reviewing the leases. Common problems include short lease terms, no rent increases, below market option periods, weak guarantors, unclear reimbursement language, missing lease amendments, tenant payment issues, and verbal agreements that are not documented. These issues do not always kill a deal, but they usually affect pricing. If the owner prices the property as if there is no lease risk, buyers will push back.  Disorganized Records Create Doubt Buyers do not only evaluate the property. They also evaluate the owner’s records. Tenant estoppels can help confirm lease terms before closing, but they do not replace clean records at the start of the process. If the rent roll, leases, expenses, service records, and tenant files are disorganized, buyers become more cautious before they ever receive the estoppels. They may question whether the income is accurate, whether tenants are paying correctly, whether reimbursements are being collected, and whether future repair issues are being tracked. Disorganization creates doubt. Doubt creates more questions, longer due diligence, and more room for buyers to push on price or terms. Deferred Maintenance Can Reduce Value A property does not have to be perfect to sell, but major physical issues should be understood before going to market. Buyers will look at roof condition, HVAC, parking lot, plumbing, electrical systems, ADA risk, environmental risk, signage, access, and common area condition. If buyers see future costs, they will usually build those costs into their offer. If the seller does not account for that upfront, the deal may stall later. The Wrong Buyer Pool Can Hurt the Sale A good property can sit if it is aimed at the wrong buyer pool. A short term net lease property may not be a fit for passive 1031 buyers. A value add strip center may not be a fit for a buyer who wants clean income. A redevelopment site may not be a fit for a cap rate buyer. A vacant building may not be a fit for a passive investor. The right buyer pool matters. Marketing to everyone often means connecting with no one. What Owners Should Do if the Property Is Sitting If a retail property has been on the market and activity is weak, the owner should review four things. Does the price match buyer underwriting? Not seller hopes. Buyer math. Is the property story clear? The marketing should explain the real reason to buy the property. Are you targeting the right buyers? Net lease buyers, developers, owner-users, syndicators, private investors, and family offices do not all think the same way. Is there deal friction? This could include leases, expenses, records, repairs, tenant issues, financing, or uncertainty. Final Thought A retail property sitting on the market is not always a disaster, but it is always a signal. The owner needs to decide whether to adjust price, improve the story, clean up the records, address property issues, or change the buyer strategy. Doing nothing usually does not create a better outcome. It usually creates more stale market time and more buyer leverage. Next week, we will look at how buyers actually evaluate your retail property and why understanding buyer underwriting can protect value before going to market. If your retail property is sitting, or if you are thinking about selling and want to avoid that problem, I can help you review the pricing, positioning, buyer pool, and deal risks before the market gives you a harder answer. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvestment #PropertyOwners #BuyerMarket #RetailPricing #PropertyValuation #CREStrategy #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof July 10, 2026
10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.539% — Data Talk (Re-opening) The 10-year yield declined 0.030 percentage point to 4.539% today. The price is 98 23/32. --Largest one-day yield decline since Wednesday, June 24, 2026 --Snaps a seven-trading-day streak of rising yields --Yield is off 0.130 percentage point from its 52-week high of 4.668% hit Tuesday, May 19, 2026 --Yield is up 0.586 percentage point from its 52-week low of 3.952% hit Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025 --Yield is up 0.192 percentage point from 52 weeks ago...
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