Your Retail Property Is Worth More Than You Think. Here's the Proof!

Marc Perlof • April 20, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy 
CA #01489206 

April 21, 2026

If you own retail real estate, here's what just changed for you.

The supply drought in retail is no longer a temporary condition. In Southern California, where available retail space was already scarce before construction costs spiked, it has become a structural advantage for owners. Fewer new competition means higher rents, tighter vacancy, and growing buyer demand for what you already own.

What Is the Supply Drought?
For over 15 years, developers have barely built any new retail space. That is not an accident. It is the result of rising construction costs, tighter lending, and weak developer confidence following the so-called retail apocalypse narrative.

The numbers tell the story clearly. According to CBRE, annual retail construction completions from 2021 through 2023 fell by more than 80% compared to the mid-2000s. Construction starts hit all-time lows in both 2024 and 2025, according to Newmark's 2026 Sector Outlook. Colliers forecasts new retail construction will fall another 37% in 2026.¹

There is simply no new supply coming. And that matters enormously for what your property is worth today.

What Is Causing It?
Three forces are keeping new supply off the market simultaneously.

First, construction costs remain elevated. Steel, aluminum, and copper are all subject to significant tariff pressure, which has driven up hard costs on any new development. Second, lenders are cautious. Retail lending has improved but has not fully recovered. Financing new ground-up retail is still expensive and difficult. Third, most developers who would normally deliver new product are focused on redevelopment, not new construction. Ground-up speculative retail is largely off the table for now.

The result is a market where existing retail owners hold an advantage that cannot be easily replicated or replaced.

Why Does This Matter for Your Property Value?
How does limited supply affect rent?
When tenants cannot find new space, they compete harder for existing space. That competition drives rent. According to JLL's Q2 2025 Retail Dynamics report, retail vacancy nationally sat at 4.3% at the end of the second quarter of 2025, with rent growing 2% year over year.² Colliers projects nationwide rent growth of approximately 1.5% for 2026, supported entirely by the lack of new supply. In supply-constrained markets like Southern California, rent growth at renewal has been running well above that average.

Occupancy rates in REIT portfolios are holding at approximately 95%, according to Nareit analysis of Q3 2025 REIT earnings. That is not a cyclical number. That is a structural one.

How are buyers underwriting retail today?
Institutional capital has returned to retail in force, and they are underwriting it aggressively. According to JLL, the volume of institutional bids on retail properties being marketed for sale grew 102% over the past two years. REIT bid volume increased 117% over the same period.

According to Northmarq, they are seeing sales activity and buyers paying more for the same income, which means your property is worth more today than it was two years ago across active shopping center markets. In California alone, 18 deals in the second half of 2025 exceeded $100 million, according to ICSC reporting. U.S. retail property sales rose 26% to $71.6 billion in 2025, according to MSCI.³
This is what happens when institutional money competes for a shrinking pool of quality assets.

What Should You Do Right Now?
  1. Understand your rent position relative to market. If your current leases were signed two or more years ago, there is a strong probability your in-place rents are below today's market. That gap represents unrealized value. Document it. A well-presented rent roll showing rent-to-market spread is one of the strongest tools you have in a sale or refinance.
  2. Push rents at renewal. This is not the time to roll over leases at flat rates. Tenants have nowhere else to go. Demand for retail space is high and available supply is near record lows. Landlords in supply-constrained markets have real pricing power. Use it.
  3. Assess your hold vs. sell timing. Institutional capital is actively deploying into retail right now. Bid volume is at its highest level since 2016. If you have been waiting for the market to stabilize before selling, that moment is here. Cap rate compression in well-located strip centers and shopping centers is real and documented. Waiting longer depends entirely on your basis, your lease structure, and what you plan to do with the proceeds.

Real Deal Insight
In conversations I'm having with buyers right now, the first thing they ask for is the spread between in-place rents and current market. That number is driving offers more than cap rate right now. In active retail investment transactions today, buyers are paying close attention to the spread between in-place rents and current market rents. Properties showing significant upside to market are receiving aggressive offers. Strip centers and unanchored centers with short remaining lease terms are being underwritten with meaningful rent growth assumptions baked in, which is directly compressing cap rates and pushing values higher.

Owner Self-Assessment
If your leases were signed more than 24 months ago, do you actually know how far below market your rents are sitting right now?

Do you know what a buyer is underwriting (How a buyer decides what your property is worth to them) your property at today, versus what you think it's worth?

And if institutional capital is actively competing for assets like yours, do you have a broker with the market exposure to put your property in front of that demand?

If any of those answers are unclear, that's the conversation worth having.

If you couldn't answer those questions with confidence, let's talk. A 20-minute call is all it takes to tell you where your property stands today.

If institutional capital is competing harder than ever for retail properties, the real question is: are you positioned to capture that demand, or are you leaving money on the table?

Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.

#RetailRealEstate #RetailREIT #ShoppingCenterInvestment #StripCenters #CommercialRealEstate #SouthernCalifornia #LosAngelesRealEstate #RetailInvestment #NNNProperties #CRE #MarcPerlof #MarcRetailGuy


By Marc Perlof August 28, 2026
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July Prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose slightly in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge.  The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses as its preferred forecasting tool, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Both were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus...
By Marc Perlof August 24, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 August 17, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A tenant asks for a $100,000 tenant improvement allowance. The landlord thinks the request is unreasonable. The tenant thinks it is necessary to open the business. Who is right? Possibly both. The problem is that landlords and tenants often look at tenant improvement allowances, commonly called TI, from different points of view. The tenant sees money needed to build and open the business. The landlord sees money being invested into a property and a lease. Both sides may be looking at the same $100,000 but thinking about it very differently. The TI amount matters, but it should not be negotiated by itself. Rent, lease term, annual increases, free rent, tenant strength, guaranties, options, and TI are all connected. The real question for an owner is not simply, “How much TI am I giving?” It is, “What am I receiving in return?” The Tenant Sees the Cost of Opening Opening a retail business can require a large investment before the first customer walks through the door. Depending on the business and condition of the space, the tenant may need to pay for construction, equipment, signs, permits, inventory, employees, and marketing. From the tenant’s point of view, the TI allowance helps reduce the cash needed to open. That is why the tenant may focus heavily on the TI amount. The landlord, however, has a different concern. The Landlord Is Investing Capital For the landlord, TI is real money going into the lease. The owner should ask what the property receives in return for that investment. Is the tenant signing a longer lease? Is the rent strong? Are there annual increases? Is the tenant financially strong? Is there a guaranty? Will the improvements have value if the tenant leaves? The same $100,000 TI allowance can create very different risks. A $100,000 investment into a strong tenant signing a long term lease may make financial sense. The same investment into a tenant with limited financial strength, a weak guaranty, and improvements with little value to the next tenant may be much riskier. The amount is the same. The investment is not. TI, Rent, and Free Rent Are Connected A lease negotiation often includes several economic items. A tenant may ask for TI, lower rent, free rent, or some combination of all three. An owner should look at the total package because each option affects the property differently. TI requires capital upfront. Free rent delays cash flow. Lower rent can reduce NOI throughout the lease and may affect the property’s value. This does not mean one structure is always better. The answer depends on the lease term, rent increases, tenant strength, cost of construction, cost of vacancy, and the owner’s available capital. The mistake is negotiating each item as if it has nothing to do with the others. A Simple Example Assume a tenant is negotiating a 10 year lease and offers the landlord two choices: Option 1: $100,000 in TI with $10,000 per month in starting base rent. Option 2: No TI with $9,000 per month in starting base rent. At first, Option 2 may look better because the landlord keeps the $100,000. But the $1,000 monthly rent difference equals $12,000 per year. Before considering rent increases or other lease terms, the lower starting rent creates $120,000 less base rent over 10 years. There is another issue. Lower NOI may also affect the property’s value when a buyer underwrites the income. This does not automatically make Option 1 the better deal. The owner still needs to consider the timing of the $100,000 investment, the tenant’s financial strength, default risk, rent increases, the value of the improvements, and whether the owner has the cash available. The point is simple: saving money on TI does not automatically create the better financial result. Free Rent Is Also Part of the Investment Free rent can also be misunderstood. A tenant may view free rent as time to complete construction, hire employees, stock inventory, and open the business before paying full rent. For the landlord, it is income that is not being collected. Assume the monthly base rent is $10,000 and the tenant receives four months of free base rent. That is $40,000 in base rent the landlord does not collect. Depending on the lease, the tenant may still pay NNN expenses during the free rent period, or those expenses may also be reduced or delayed. The details matter. An owner who gives $100,000 in TI and $40,000 in free rent is making a larger investment than the TI number alone suggests. Leasing commissions, landlord work, and other concessions can increase the total investment further. This does not mean free rent is bad. It means the owner should measure the full cost of the lease package. More TI Should Be Supported by the Lease If an owner is being asked to invest more capital, the rest of the lease should support that investment. That may mean a longer lease term, stronger rent, annual increases, better security, a stronger guaranty, or other terms that reduce risk. If the tenant wants more TI, more free rent, lower rent, limited guaranties, and flexible options, the owner should ask whether the total package still makes financial sense. Occupancy alone does not make a lease a good investment. A Simple Payback Test One useful screening test is how long it takes the owner to recover the total lease investment. That should include TI, free rent, leasing commissions, landlord work, and other concessions. As a rough guide, an owner may want the total lease investment recovered within the first 25% to 40% of the firm lease term. On a 5 year lease, that usually means about 1 ½ to 2 years. On a 10 year lease, that may mean about 2 ½ to 4 years. This is not a perfect rule, but it is a useful warning sign. If most of the lease term is needed just to recover the upfront investment, the owner may be taking too much risk. Look at the Whole Deal The highest rent does not always create the best deal. A tenant offering higher rent may require more TI, more free rent, a larger leasing commission, or more landlord work. Another tenant may offer slightly lower rent but require much less capital and have stronger financials. That is why lease negotiations should be viewed as one investment decision, not a collection of separate deal points. Final Thought Landlords and tenants often misunderstand TI allowances because they are looking at the same money from different sides. The tenant is trying to reduce the cash needed to open. The landlord is deciding how much capital to invest and what income, security, and long-term value will be received in return. Before agreeing to or rejecting a TI request, owners should ask one question: What is the total investment I am making, and what am I receiving in return? If a tenant offered you a choice between higher TI and higher rent or no TI and lower rent, would you know which deal creates the better result for your property? In next week’s blog, How TI Decisions Affect Retail Property Value and Buyer Underwriting , we will look at how buyers review tenant strength, remaining lease term, future TI costs, lease rollover, and the durability of a property’s NOI. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailLeasing #TenantImprovements #TIAllowance #CommercialLeasing #MarcRetailGuy Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.
By Marc Perlof August 21, 2026
Retail sales post biggest drop since 2025 as spending momentum fades U.S. retail sales sank to their lowest in over a year in July as consumers pulled back on online shopping and vehicle sales. Retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, fell 0.6% in July from the previous month in the biggest decline since May 2025, according to the Census Bureau data released Friday. Excluding gasoline and auto, retail sales dropped 0.2%...
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