How Rising Oil Prices and Job Losses Could Affect Retail Property Values in 2026

By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 July 27, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Last week, we looked at how buyers actually evaluate retail properties. They look at income, leases, tenant quality, property condition, financing, future costs, and exit value. That brings us to the most important owner question in this series: should you sell now or wait? This is not a simple yes or no decision. For some retail property owners, selling now makes sense. For others, waiting may protect value. For others, the right answer may be to lease vacant space, clean up property records and title concerns, fix property issues, or refinance. The key is to make the decision based on numbers, risk, and timing. Not emotion. The Wrong Way to Make the Decision Many owners ask, “What price can I get?” That matters, but it is not enough. The better question is: what is the best decision based on my property, family goals, income, risk, tax position, debt, and long term plans? A property may be worth selling even if pricing is not perfect. A property may be worth holding even if the market is active. The right answer depends on the facts. This is also where the owner’s tax and reinvestment plan matters. Selling and cashing out may create liquidity, reduce management, and simplify life, but capital gains taxes, depreciation recapture, and state taxes can reduce the net proceeds. A 1031 exchange may allow an owner to defer taxes and keep more equity working, but it also requires finding a replacement property, meeting exchange deadlines, and adjusting to the new lifestyle. The real question is not just, “What price can I get?” It is, “What do I keep after taxes, what do I do with the money, and am I better off after the sale?” When Selling Now May Make Sense Selling now may make sense if the property has strong current income and a buyer pool that still wants the asset. This is especially true if the leases are long term, tenants are strong, income is clean, repairs are limited, the location is desirable, and the owner wants to simplify, exchange, reduce management, or avoid future rollover risk. Selling now can also make sense when the property is not fully stabilized, but the lease structure creates flexibility for the right buyer. Short term leases may scare off passive investors, but they can attract value add buyers, syndicators, developers, or owner users who want the ability to raise rents, retenant space, reposition the property, or plan for redevelopment. Timing matters. A property with 10+ years of lease term may price much better for a passive investor than the same property with 3 years left. But a property with short term leases, below market rents, or future redevelopment potential may appeal to a different buyer pool. The key is knowing whether the short term lease structure is a weakness, an opportunity, or both. When Waiting May Make Sense Waiting may make sense if the property is not ready. If an owner has below market rents and can increase them, waiting may create value. If a vacancy can be leased, waiting may improve Net Operating Income (NOI). If records are disorganized, waiting may allow the owner to clean up the file before going to market. If a repair issue is scaring buyers, addressing it first may protect pricing. Waiting may also make sense if selling creates a tax problem and the owner does not have a clear 1031 exchange plan. But waiting is not automatically safe. Waiting has risk. The Risk of Waiting Owners often think waiting is neutral. It is not. Waiting can help, but it can also hurt. Risks include tenant rollover, vacancy, rent collection issues, higher insurance costs, higher repair costs, capital improvements, interest rate changes, buyer demand changes, lending pressure, new competing listings, and local market changes. Some owners also wait because they believe the market will feel clearer after an election, after interest rates move, or after major global uncertainty settles. That may be reasonable, but it is still a bet. Elections, wars, tax law changes, and economic shocks can affect buyer confidence, capital flow, lending, and pricing. The market may improve, stay flat, or get worse. Waiting should be based on a clear reason, not just the hope that uncertainty disappears. A property can look stronger today than it will in 3 to 12 months. That is why waiting should be a strategy, not a default reaction. The Financial Question Sellers Should Ask Before deciding to sell or wait, owners should ask: what needs to happen for waiting to create more value? For example, assume a retail property has $250,000 of NOI and could sell today at a 6.50% cap rate. That value is about $3,846,154. If the owner waits and increases NOI to $275,000, but the market later prices the property at a 6.75% cap rate, the value is about $4,074,074 . That is an increase of about $227,920 . That may sound good, but the owner still needs to consider how much money was spent to create the higher NOI, how long it took, whether there was vacancy risk, whether tenant improvements and/or free rent were required, and whether market risk increased during the wait. Sometimes waiting creates value. Sometimes it creates more work for a small net gain. Selling Now Versus Leasing First Selling now with vacancy may attract value add buyers. The price may be lower, but the owner avoids leasing time, tenant improvement costs, commissions, carrying costs, contractor issues, delays, and the risk of choosing the wrong tenant. That has its own value. Sometimes accepting a lower price and transferring the value add work to the buyer is smarter than spending months dealing with leasing, construction, negotiations, permits, and uncertainty. For those owners, peace of mind can have real internal value, even if it does not show up as a line item on the closing statement. Leasing first may increase NOI and attract more buyers, but the owner needs to invest time and money before selling. The question is not just whether leasing increases value. The question is whether leasing increases value enough after costs, time, and risk. Selling Now Versus Fixing Issues First Some repairs should be handled before going to market. Others should be disclosed and priced into the deal. It depends on the issue. If a smaller repair removes a major buyer objection, it may be worth doing. If a larger repair is expensive and uncertain, the owner may choose to sell as is to a buyer who understands the work. Common items to review include roof, HVAC, parking lot, plumbing, electrical, ADA, environmental, structural issues, and deferred maintenance. The goal is not to make the property perfect. The goal is to avoid surprises that create price cuts during escrow. Selling Now Versus Refinancing Some owners do not really want to sell. They want cash or liquidity. In that case, refinancing may be an option. But refinancing only works if the numbers support it. The owner needs to review current NOI, loan amount, interest rate, debt service coverage, loan costs, prepayment penalty, future cash flow, property risk, and their current lifestyle. If refinancing creates tight cash flow, selling may still be the better decision. If refinancing gives the owner liquidity and allows them to keep a strong asset, holding may make sense. The Decision Should Be Based on Net Outcome Owners should not only ask, “Can I get a higher price later?” They should ask: will I be better off later after time, cost, taxes, risk, and effort? Sometimes the highest price is not the best outcome. A clean sale today may be better than chasing a slightly higher price with more risk. Other times, waiting 3 to 12 months may be smart if there is a clear path to improve income or reduce buyer concerns. The decision has to be specific to the property. Final Thought The question is not always, “Is now the perfect time to sell?” There is rarely a perfect time. The better question is, “What decision puts you in the strongest position moving forward?” For some owners, that means selling now. For others, it means waiting. For others, it means leasing, fixing, refinancing, cashing out, or completing a 1031 exchange. The real risk is not selling or waiting. The real risk is making either decision without understanding how buyers, lenders, taxes, lease rollover, future repairs, and market timing affect the outcome. This concludes the Execution and Decision-Making series. The main takeaway is simple: understanding pricing is important, but execution, timing, and decision making determine the result. If you are trying to decide whether to sell, wait, refinance, cash out, complete a 1031 exchange, or lease first, I can help you review the numbers and risks before you make a move. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvestment #PropertyOwners #RetailPricing #PricingStrategy #HoldorSell #CREStrategy #MarcRetailGuy

10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.628% — Data Talk The 10-year yield rose 0.030 percentage point to 4.628% today. The price fell 7/32 to 98 1/32. --Yield is up for two consecutive trading days --Yield is up 0.085 percentage point over the last two trading days --Largest two-day yield gain since Wednesday, July 8, 2026 --Yield is up three of the past four trading days --Today's yield is the second highest this year --Highest yield since Tuesday, May 19, 2026...