Thanksgiving Retail Shift: What 2025’s Holiday Data Means for Your Property Value

By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy

November 24, 2025

If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed for you.

Thanksgiving is more than a holiday. It is a powerful signal for retail property owners. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. holiday retail sales for November and December 2025 to grow between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent and reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. This is the first time total sales are projected to pass one trillion dollars.¹ Deloitte reports that average planned consumer spending is down about 10 percent, dropping to $1,595 per shopper.² The message is simple. More total dollars will be spent, but buyers are more selective. Tenants will need to compete harder, and property owners must watch how each tenant responds.

Online spending is projected to hit $253.4 billion in 2025, a 5.3 percent increase from last year.³ Mobile sales will account for more than half of online revenue. Shoppers are also starting earlier. More than 40 percent of U.S. consumers plan to begin their holiday purchases before Thanksgiving.⁴ This changes how centers must prepare and how landlords evaluate performance.

Retail property owners should focus on the tenant mix. Essential goods and value driven retailers will perform best in a tighter spending environment. Thanksgiving is now a benchmark moment. Measure your property’s traffic and compare it to these national trends. If a tenant is not matching market movement, this is your chance to reposition the space or begin renewal conversations with real data.

Call or DM me for more information. I can walk you through how this Thanksgiving period can guide your 2026 leasing and investment strategy.

Thought provoking question. Are you using your Thanksgiving performance as a true scorecard for the year ahead?

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