CPI Freeze: How the Shutdown Could Stall Your Retail Rent Increases Overnight

Marc Perlof • November 17, 2025

By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy


November 17, 2025


If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you.


A federal government shutdown does more than close offices. It also stops the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from releasing new CPI numbers. When CPI data pauses, retail landlords who use CPI rent increase clauses lose the main tool they need to calculate yearly rent changes¹. Your rent bumps, cash flow plans, and long-term property value all depend on this number. If the data stops, your rent adjustment stops too.


Many retail leases use CPI to keep rent in line with commercial real estate inflation. But during a shutdown, no new CPI is published². That means you cannot figure out the exact increase for the year. Tenants may ask for delays. Owners may wait to invoice. Even a short shutdown can slow down your whole rent escalation schedule.


What retail property owners should do now:

• Read your lease. Many say to use the “most recently published CPI” when new data is not out yet³.

• Keep clear records. Save the CPI number used during your last adjustment⁴.

• Use the latest CPI available until new numbers return. Then, if allowed, issue a catch-up increase.

• Watch federal updates so you can recalculate as soon as CPI reporting restarts.


The impact is real. The 2019 shutdown delayed more than 40 major economic reports⁵. CPI covers over 90 percent of the U.S. population, which means almost all CPI-linked retail leases rely on it⁶. 


If your rent increases use CPI, now is the time to review your lease and prepare for any catch-up adjustments. Call or DM me if you want help breaking this down.


How would a delayed rent increase change your NOI over the next 12 months?


#CPI #RetailRealEstate #LeaseEscalation #CREOwners #InvestmentStrategy

Retail Real Estate in 2026: What Smart Property Owners Are Doing Right Now

By Marc Perlof • December 29, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 29, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed for you. The New Year signifies more than just a new calendar. It marks the official reset point for tenant expectations, capital planning, and leasing strategy for retail property owners. Preliminary data for 2026 suggests that moderate but consistent growth is on the horizon. The Conference Board anticipates that consumer spending will increase by approximately 2% in Q1, primarily fueled by essential goods and neighborhood convenience retail.¹ The status of discretionary categories is still unclear. At the end of 2025, vacancy rates in neighborhood centers throughout the U.S. stood at 5.2%, marking the lowest level in over ten years.² While strong demand and limited new construction give landlords more leverage, it is crucial for them to use data to guide their decisions. The tone is set in January. Those tenants who ended the holiday period with a flat or negative performance are the most susceptible to cash flow stress in the early part of the year. This year, online commerce is projected to increase by another 7%, with mobile now leading the way in discovery and price comparison.³ Centers that facilitate easy access, smooth parking flow, designated pickup areas, and good visibility will attract tenants who are ready to pay higher rents for operational efficiency. It should now be simple for you to focus. Check year-end tenant sales or foot traffic counts, if they are available. Assess the recovery and operating costs of CAM. Determine areas that require repositioning. And begin discussions about renewal ahead of time with tenants who have done well. Powerful operators have already devised their strategy for 2026. Also, landlords should. Call or DM me. I can walk you through a New Year portfolio checkup that turns uncertainty into a strategy you can execute. Are you starting 2026 with clear data or just waiting to see what happens? #retailrealestate #CRE #2026retailoutlook #retailinvestment #leasingstrategy

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • December 26, 2025
Single-Tenant Retail Rebounds As Private Buyers Dominate The STNL retail market is rebounding as private investors take center stage amid easing inflation and improved pricing alignment, reports GlobeSt. According to Marcus & Millichap’s latest report, private buyers drove a 15% increase in their market share over the past 12 months. During the same period, institutional, REIT, and entity-level activity declined. Through Q3 2025, private capital made up 71% of dollar volume, followed by foreign buyers (10%) and REITs (9%)...

December Retail Sales Just Gave Landlords a Huge 60-Day Advantage

By Marc Perlof • December 22, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 22, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed for you. The combination of Hanukkah and Christmas produces the most potent retail period of the whole year. At this moment, tenant performance becomes unmistakably evident. The latest data indicates that U.S. consumers intend to raise their spending in December by 2.5 percent, despite the tightening of household budgets.¹ Concurrently, holiday traffic is changing. According to NIQ, retailers focused on value are experiencing a 12 percent increase in foot traffic compared to the previous year, whereas premium brands are seeing their traffic stabilize.² Customers still wish to shop, but they are opting for less expensive options. This is important for property owners. A tenant's performance in December is often indicative of how they will perform in the first half of the following year. When spending slows down in January and February, retailers who fail to capture holiday dollars will find it difficult. The performance in December offers landlords a 30 to 60-day advantage for renewals, rent adjustments, and replacement planning before less effective operators experience the pressure. This month, online shopping is anticipated to increase by another 6 percent, with a significant rise in curbside pickup.³ This season, retailers focusing on value and necessity are surpassing discretionary categories in traffic and conversion rates by high single digits. Centers that cater to hybrid shopping behaviors will surpass those that do not. Owners should keep an eye on three aspects. Initially, examine the speed of tenant sales, if available. Secondly, examine the conversion of traffic. Third, verify if tenants made early enough adjustments to their inventory to remain competitive. When a tenant is losing momentum during the crucial retail period of the year, it is essential to consider repositioning or renewal adjustments immediately rather than waiting until after the holidays. Call or DM me if you want to dig deeper. I can walk you through how this holiday period can guide your leasing, renewals, and pricing strategy for 2026. Are your tenants winning the moments that matter most? #retailrealestate #holidayretail #CRE #retailinvestment #centerperformance
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