CPI Freeze: How the Shutdown Could Stall Your Retail Rent Increases Overnight

Marc Perlof • November 17, 2025

By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy


November 17, 2025


If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you.


A federal government shutdown does more than close offices. It also stops the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from releasing new CPI numbers. When CPI data pauses, retail landlords who use CPI rent increase clauses lose the main tool they need to calculate yearly rent changes¹. Your rent bumps, cash flow plans, and long-term property value all depend on this number. If the data stops, your rent adjustment stops too.


Many retail leases use CPI to keep rent in line with commercial real estate inflation. But during a shutdown, no new CPI is published². That means you cannot figure out the exact increase for the year. Tenants may ask for delays. Owners may wait to invoice. Even a short shutdown can slow down your whole rent escalation schedule.


What retail property owners should do now:

• Read your lease. Many say to use the “most recently published CPI” when new data is not out yet³.

• Keep clear records. Save the CPI number used during your last adjustment⁴.

• Use the latest CPI available until new numbers return. Then, if allowed, issue a catch-up increase.

• Watch federal updates so you can recalculate as soon as CPI reporting restarts.


The impact is real. The 2019 shutdown delayed more than 40 major economic reports⁵. CPI covers over 90 percent of the U.S. population, which means almost all CPI-linked retail leases rely on it⁶. 


If your rent increases use CPI, now is the time to review your lease and prepare for any catch-up adjustments. Call or DM me if you want help breaking this down.


How would a delayed rent increase change your NOI over the next 12 months?


#CPI #RetailRealEstate #LeaseEscalation #CREOwners #InvestmentStrategy



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