Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • January 9, 2026
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Net Lease Cap Rates Stabilize as Market Focus Shifts to Risk Over Rates

The net lease market barely budged in Q4, but beneath the surface, investors are repricing around risk—not the Fed.

Cap rates hold steady: In Q4, single-tenant net lease cap rates rose just one bp to 6.81%. Retail dipped to 6.55%, office climbed to 8.00%, and industrial held at 7.20%. Despite Fed rate cuts, pricing remained steady, signaling a break from short-term policy influence...

A blurry picture of a clothing store with clothes on display.

13-story hotel gets green-light at 4200 Century Blvd. in Inglewood


The City of Inglewood has signed off on a project which would replace the 135-room Tradewinds Hotel on Century Boulevard with a larger mixed-use building.


Gregory Peck of Beverly Hills-based Crescent Hotel Group, the applicant attached to the project at 4200 W. Century Boulevard, has proposed the construction of a 13-story, 335,000-square-foot building containing:

  • 11 condominiums on floors 9-12;
  • 118 extended stay hotel rooms on floors 7-12;
  • 175 hotel rooms on floors 3-6; and
  • event space, a lobby, a bar, and restaurant space on floors 1-2.
A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

Retail Leasing Strategies Evolve in Uncertain Economy

According to Globe St, retailers are moving away from traditional, long-term leasing models in response to a dynamic economic landscape. Rather than treating retail leases as static occupancy costs, companies are viewing them as strategic tools to maximize flexibility and bargaining power. The approach allows retailers to better respond to everything from changing consumer trends to broader financial pressures...


The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Store Expansion News: December update


Retailers and restaurants alike made headlines to close out 2025 in December with store expansions and new formats.

Here are the major stories as reported by Chain Store Age, starting with the most recent.

  • Report: Barnes & Noble to open 60 stores in 2026 The bookseller plans to open 60 new locations across the country in 2026, reported USA Today. According to a list obtained by the publication, Barnes & Noble plans to open stores in Ohio, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Colorado, Washington state, California, Virginia, Georgia and Washington D.C., with "several openings" scheduled between now and June 2026...


Kroger is ready to grow again in Houston area

Kroger’s only activity in the Houston area over the past few years has involved store closings and some remodels, but that is about to change.


The Cincinnati-based grocer plans to open several stores in the Houston area and continue remodeling existing locations, according to the Houston Business Journal.


Kroger did not respond to a request for comment.


Five Houston-area Kroger stores closed in 2025. During that time, the grocer combined its Houston and Dallas divisions to form a new Texas Division...

Benihana plans to get bigger, faster in San Francisco Bay Area following success


Benihana, the Japanese restaurant chain known for its teppanyaki dining style, is plotting an expansion in the San Francisco Bay Area.


The brand’s parent, publicly traded Denver-based One Group Hospitality Inc., signed a seven-year deal with an “experienced operator” to open 10 Benihana locations around the region, including three Benihana franchises, two Benihana joint-venture locations and five Benihana Express outlets...

Retail Media Platforms Redefine Store Strategy



Retail spending trends remain surprisingly robust, with holiday-period sales increasing by around 4% year-over-year, according to Mastercard and Visa data. However, Globe St reports that once inflation is accounted for, this growth flattens, revealing that Americans are spending more dollars but not necessarily purchasing more goods. These trends come amid declining consumer sentiment since April 2024, underscoring growing uncertainty in the retail sector...

Underwriting Standards Tighten for 2026 Refinancings

According to Globe St, commercial real estate lending in 2026 is shaping up as a ‘sorting year,’ with banks, CMBS, and private credit outlets applying far tougher underwriting standards. The backdrop: higher-for-longer rates, mounting maturities, and a thirst for strong sponsorship and financeable assets.


According to Trepp’s research, deals supported by robust cash flow and experienced sponsors are passing the new underwriting hurdles. Marginal assets, particularly those with optimistic past assumptions, face stricter debt service coverage requirements and heightened scrutiny...

Grocers lift North Texas to nation’s top market for new retail construction


The Dallas-Fort Worth region is the nation’s top market for new retail construction, spurred by an ever-growing number of grocers seeking to capitalize on people moving to Texas.



North Texas has 7.6 million square feet of new retail projects in the pipeline — roughly twice the amount of the No. 2 U.S. market, which is Phoenix with 3.6 million square feet, according to CoStar’s latest data...

Jollibee’s International Business Could Go Public in U.S.

Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) announced plans to spin off its international business and take it public on a U.S. securities exchange, according to a filing with the Philippine Stock Exchange.



The company said in a news release that it’s working with international and local advisors on defining the structure and timing of the separation and upcoming U.S. listing. The transaction is expected to occur in late 2027. JFC acknowledged that the strategy could change and there is no assurance an actual separation will occur...

Salad and Go to Close 32 Stores, Exit Texas and Oklahoma Markets

Salad and Go, once a fast-rising drive-thru chain, announced the impending closure of 32 restaurants.



The brand is exiting its Texas and Oklahoma markets, which house 25 and seven stores, respectively. Going forward, Salad and Go will shift focus toward its Arizona and Nevada trade areas.


The news comes after the chain announced in September the closure of 41 restaurants across Texas...


GameStop reportedly closing up to 200 stores

GameStop continues to shrink its brick-and-mortar portfolio.



The struggling video game retailer revealed in a December 2025 Securities and Exchange filing that it planned to close a "significant number of additional stores" during the rest of its 2025 fiscal year, which ends on Jan. 31, 2026. Although GameStop has not disclosed the exact number of stores planned for closure, reports from local media and customer notices indicate that up to 200 stores could go dark...

Retail Property Succession Planning: Will Your Family Inherit Income or Problems?

By Marc Perlof • February 23, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy February 23, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. What Happens to Your Property When You’re No Longer Running It? Most mom-and-pop retail owners built their property over decades. You likely handled tenant calls yourself, negotiated leases personally, and made repair decisions without a committee. For many owners, the property is not just an investment. It is a major part of retirement income and family wealth. But here is the question few owners answer clearly: What happens to the property when you are no longer the one making decisions? Legacy Planning Just Shifted Again For several years, owners were told the federal estate tax exemption would drop sharply in 2026 and that they needed to act quickly. That urgency has changed. For estates of decedents who die in 2025, the federal estate and gift tax exemption is $13.99 million per person under IRS guidance¹. Under prior law in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, that higher exemption was scheduled to sunset after December 31, 2025 and revert to a lower level beginning January 1, 2026 if Congress took no action². However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Law, enacted July 4, 2025, prevents that reversion and permanently resets the exemption beginning January 1, 2026³. Starting in 2026, the exemption is $15 million per person, or $30 million for a married couple with proper planning, and it will be indexed for inflation going forward³. The annual gift tax exclusion remains $19,000 per recipient for 2026⁴. This means the expected tax drop is no longer the main threat. But taxes are rarely what hurt families who inherit retail property. What Actually Reduces Value After more than 20 years in retail investment sales and nearly $750 million in closed transactions, I have seen what causes problems for heirs. It is usually operational risk, not tax exposure. Common issues include leases expiring within a few years, major roof or parking lot repairs that were postponed, and no clear decision-maker in the family. Sometimes adult children inherit the property but do not want to manage tenants or deal with capital improvements. In many cases, the children do not even know who the estate attorney, real estate attorney, CPA, tax attorney, ADA specialist, or trusted vendors are. If the contact list for your handyman, plumber, roofer, and HVAC technician only lives in your phone, that is a real operational risk. None of these issues show up in an estate tax calculation. All of them show up in the sale price. Why Timing Matters Interest rates remain much higher than they were during the 2010–2020 period, with the Federal Funds Rate at 3.5%-3.75% to date from the Federal Reserve reporting⁵. Higher borrowing costs reduce buyer purchasing power and can compress pricing when owners consider selling investment property before retirement. At the same time, baby boomers continue to control a significant share of U.S. real estate wealth, and a large intergenerational wealth transfer is underway according to U.S. Census Bureau data⁶. In simple terms, many retail properties will change hands over the next decade. The only question is whether those transitions are planned or forced. What Strong Retail Property Succession Planning Looks Like Retail property succession planning should focus on the asset itself. That means reviewing lease rollover schedules, evaluating tenant credit strength, budgeting realistically for capital repairs, and creating a clear family real estate transition strategy. For some owners, commercial property inheritance planning makes sense because the next generation wants the asset and understands the responsibility. For others, selling investment property before retirement may protect wealth and reduce stress for the family. The right answer depends on lease structure, property condition, and family goals. If you own retail real estate and want a clear evaluation of your lease exposure, capital risk, and transition options, I can help you review it from a real-world retail perspective. Call or DM me for more information or comment “PLAN” if you want a succession checklist. If your largest tenant gave notice tomorrow, would your family know exactly what to do? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CREBroker #InvestmentProperty #PropertyOwners #SuccessionPlanning #PropertyInheritance #FamilyWealth #NetLease #LosAngelesRealEstate

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • February 20, 2026
This Signal Triggered Before the Last 4 Recessions. It Just Happened Again. The question of whether the U.S. economy is heading toward recession is a polarizing one. On one hand, GDP grew at a 4.4% annualized clip in the third quarter. The unemployment rate is still in the 4% to 5% range. Inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve's target but it's also sustainably below the 3% level...

Why Retail Developments Fail After Site Control: Underwriting, Cap Rates, and Real Risk

By Marc Perlof • February 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy February 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail Developers: Why Your Deal Dies After You “Win” the Site Winning the site is not the win. Making the numbers work is the win. Today, many retail deals fail after the land is secured. Not because the site is bad. Because the math breaks when the market changes. If you own retail property, you must understand: Retail development underwriting. Retail real estate return on cost. Retail development exit cap rates. Retail capital stack risk. Retail tenant lease-up risk. These are no longer just developer terms. They determine whether your investment survives. Let’s look at the math. Example: You build a retail project for $12 million. You expect $1,000,000 in annual net operating income. Your retail real estate return on cost is: $1,000,000 ÷ $12,000,000 = 8.33% That looks strong. Now look at your exit. If buyers price the deal at a 6.75% cap rate, the value is: $1,000,000 ÷ 0.0675 = $14.8 million. Now stress test it. What if: Construction costs rise 8% Tenant Allowance costs rise Leasing is delayed 6 months Retail development exit cap rates expand 0.75% New total cost: $12.96 million New exit cap: 7.50% New value: $13.33 million Your profit shrinks fast. That is how deals die. Now let’s talk about retail capital stack risk. Most retail developments today use: 60 to 65% senior bank debt 10 to 15% mezzanine or preferred equity 20 to 30% sponsor equity If lease-up slows, lenders may: Increase reserves Delay refinancing Restrict distributions Tighten loan covenants Even a good property can become a weak investment. Retail tenant lease-up risk is another hidden problem. If your anchor tenant opens late: Interest continues Carry costs increase CAM recovery slows Cash flow weakens A short delay can materially impact your return. What does the market show? Retail vacancy remained near 5% in 2025, even as leasing velocity slowed.¹ Net lease cap rates averaged around the high 6% range in late 2025, with investors focused more on tenant quality and lease term than rate movements alone.² Assets with strong credit tenants and longer lease terms continue to command better pricing.² These trends mean one thing. Your retail real estate return on cost must exceed your retail development exit cap rate by a meaningful spread. A thin margin no longer protects you. If you earn 8.25% and expect to exit at 6.75%, that 1.5% gap may not be enough once capital stack risk and lease-up risk are fully modeled. Today’s retail development underwriting must include: Cap rate expansion Lease-up delays Construction overruns Higher cost of capital If your deal cannot survive realistic stress testing, it is not an investment. It is a momentum trade. If you own retail real estate or are planning a development, do not rely on optimistic pro formas. I stress test return on cost, exit assumptions, tenant structure, and capital stack exposure before capital is committed. Call or DM me for more information. What happens to your current property value if exit cap rates expand and your next tenant takes longer to open than expected? #RetailDevelopmentUnderwriting #RetailRealEstateReturnOnCost #RetailDevelopmentExitCapRates #RetailCapitalStackRisk #RetailTenantLeaseUpRisk
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