Weekly Retail Real Estate News

Marc Perlof • October 6, 2023
Banks Pull Back on Commercial Real Estate Lending


The top 25 banks by assets hold 31% of all commercial real estate loans on bank balance sheets. But in 2016, the growth of commercial real estate loans at large banks began to slow. The combination of increased banking regulations in the wake of the Great Recession, the expansion of non-bank lenders, and further competition from regional banks all led to more tepid loan growth among the top players.


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Are Investors About to Win Big With Tractor


Supply's New Growth Plan?


Tractor Supply (TSCO 0.30%) is an interesting retailer. While it is geared toward farming, even selling baby chickens, it isn't exactly focused on full-time farmers. That's partly why it has been able to keep expanding its store base for many years, drawing in both hobby farmers and general consumers.

 

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Welcome to the Rise of Drive-Thru-Only

Restaurants


One modern marketing strategy tells companies to “meet customers where they are.” That could be amended in the limited-service restaurant industry to “meet customers where they drive.” As the percentage of customers using drive-thru lanes at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants has grown, an increasing number of dining brands of all sizes have considered—and gone forward with—launching drive-thru-centric units, many with pickup options.


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Rite Aid gets listing warning from NYSE


Shares of Rite Aid Corp. fell 2% after hours on Wednesday after the drugstore chain said the New York Stock Exchange notified the company that it is “no longer in compliance” with the exchange’s minimum pricing and valuation standards, following a steep drop for the stock so far this year. The company said that it received the notice on Sept. 28, after its average market value over a 30 trading-day period slipped below $50 million, and after its average closing share price over that period fell below $1.


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For Burger King, a Reset, then a Revival


In reality, Patrick Doyle’s influence on Burger King began well before his arrival as executive chair last November. It started in mid-May 2021 when Tom Curtis joined after 35 years at Domino’s. Curtis, who started as a store manager, became a franchisee, and eventually served as EVP of corporate operations and U.S. operations and support, had a clear view of Doyle’s blueprint at the pizza giant.

 

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Toys R Us Sets National Roll-Out of Stores,


Expansion Into Airports, Cruise Ships


Reborn Toys R Us plans to launch a fleet of stores next year across the country, as well as opening retail locations at airports and on cruise ships. The company's parent, New York-based WHP Global, on Friday said it plans to relaunch the brand by rolling out flagship stores nationally starting early next year in partnership with Go! Retail Group, which is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

 

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US Retail Market Thwarted by Its Own Success


Retail tenants across the U.S. leased just under 59 million square feet during the second quarter, the lowest amount of total space signed in a quarter in over two years. And while the total amount of space leased is expected to rise as more leases that were signed near the end of the quarter are fully captured, leasing has certainly downshifted across retail property in the past few quarters.

 

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Gelson’s to debut new store format — at EV

charging stations

The specialty grocer, which operates 27 stores throughout Southern California, is partnering with electric vehicle-charging station developer Rove to provide food and beverage services at its new charging stations. Rove plans to build six locations in Southern California beginning this year, with 20 stations planned by 2026.

 

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Controversy surrounds Covered 6 contract cancellation

Following Thursday night’s shock announcement that private security company Covered 6 has withdrawn from its contract to patrol the Downtown and Promenade districts, City officials and Downtown Santa Monica, Inc. (DTSM) board members reacted with shock and bewilderment.

 

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If You Need 100 Car Chargers Right Now, You’re Already Behind The EV Revolution

Krispy Kreme executives in February said Insomnia Cookies, a brand it acquired in 2018, had room for more than 4,000 locations. It just appears that result will be driven by somebody else. The company on Tuesday shared it’s exploring strategic alternatives for the dessert brand, including a potential all-cash sale.

 

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Restaurants, Movie Theaters Expected To See Uptick This Holiday Season


Restaurants and other retail venues such as movie theaters have reason to celebrate this holiday season: Americans say they intend to boost their spending on experiences in the festive period rather than just buying gifts.

 

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom Signs Fast-Food Wage Bill into Law


California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill into law (AB 1228) Thursday that will raise the state's minimum wage to $20 for fast-food workers starting in April. The move comes a little more than two weeks after foodservice representatives and labor groups reached a compromise to kill the Fast Act, which was scheduled to go on the 2024 ballot as a referendum. Signed into law by Newsom last year.

 

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By Marc Perlof March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....
By Marc Perlof March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates
By Marc Perlof March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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