Ride the Rate Hike Wave: Discover the Fed's Next Move and Your Retail Real Estate!

Marc Perlof • October 9, 2023

Hey, Retail Real Estate Rockstars! The recent jobs report has stirred the waters in the financial realm, paving the way for another potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve by year's end. The nonfarm payrolls surged by 336,000 last month, maintaining the unemployment rate at a stable 3.8%. Moreover, wages have been advancing at a modest pace, marking a slight increment of 0.2% last month and 4.2% over the year, the smallest annual rise since 2021 ¹ . The robust labor market signals an economic reacceleration, catching the keen eye of the Fed. Here’s a breakdown of the unfolding scenario and its ripple effects on the retail real estate realm:


Interest Rate Hike on the Horizon: The jobs report has nudged the odds of a year-end interest rate hike from 48% to 56%, as per initial market pricing. This move stems from the Fed’s endeavor to keep inflation in check, which has soared well beyond the 2% target. The lingering concern is that an overheated labor market could fuel inflation even further.


Bond Market Dynamics: The bond market is already reacting to the anticipated moves by the Fed, with longer-term yields escalating. The yield on 30-year Treasury securities surpassed 5% recently, hitting a pinnacle not seen since 2007.


Market Reactions: The potential rate hike is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it's aimed at curbing inflation, but on the flip side, it could apply brakes on economic growth. Retail real estate owners should brace for impact as higher interest rates could potentially escalate borrowing costs, affecting property values and investment returns ² ³.


Retail real estate moguls, it’s time to strategize! Assess your portfolio, explore refinancing options, and consider locking in current rates before they ascend. Engage with financial advisors and retail real estate agents like myself to navigate the shifting tides and ensure your retail properties continue to shine bright in the market landscape.


As we venture into the last quarter, how are you gearing up to mitigate the impacts of a possible interest rate hike on your retail real estate portfolio?


Yahoo Finance: Fed Will Lean Toward Another Rate Hike After Blowout Payrolls¹

LinkedIn: How Fed Interest Rate Decisions Impact Real Estate Investors²

HLC Equity: How the Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Impact Commercial Real Estate³


#RetailRealEstate #InterestRateHike #FederalReserve #EconomicTrends #RealEstateInvesting


By Marc Perlof September 18, 2026
10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 ahead of Fed rate decision New York — The bond market sell-off is raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week and putting a spotlight on the central bank’s commitment to reining in inflation. Traders widely expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the first time since 2023. Traders are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate hike, according to CME FedWatch, a real-time forecasting tool...
By Marc Perlof September 14, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 September 14, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Why CASp Reports Matter A Certified Access Specialist (CASp) report can help a California retail property owner understand accessibility issues before they become a bigger problem. It may identify concerns involving parking, paths of travel, entrances, doors, restrooms, signage, counters, slopes, and common areas. The value of a CASp report is clarity. It helps an owner understand what issues exist, what may need to be corrected, what may affect a lease or sale, and what requires legal guidance. But owners should be careful. A CASp report should not be ordered casually with no plan. If a report identifies issues and the owner does nothing, the owner may create a record of known problems without a strategy to address them. For retail property owners, the real value of a CASp report is not the report itself. It is reducing uncertainty before that uncertainty turns into buyer leverage, tenant demands, settlement pressure, or a lower sale price. What Is a CASp Report? A CASp inspection is performed by a trained accessibility professional who reviews a property for construction-related accessibility issues. For retail owners, a CASp report may review customer-facing areas such as parking, access aisles, ramps, walkways, entrances, doors, restrooms, counters, signage, slopes, and common areas. The exact scope depends on the property, the tenant use, and the purpose of the inspection. That matters because many owners do not know where the problems are until someone else points them out. That someone may be a plaintiff, attorney, tenant, buyer, lender, or inspector. Why Timing Matters Timing matters with CASp reports. In some situations, getting a CASp inspection before a claim may provide more options than waiting until after a lawsuit is filed. Owners should confirm the timing, legal effect, and any potential benefits with an Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) attorney before relying on a CASp report. This is one reason retail owners should think about accessibility before there is pressure. Before a lawsuit, sale, refinance, major lease negotiation, tenant turnover, or remodel, an owner may have more control. The owner can speak with an attorney, decide whether a CASp inspection makes sense, evaluate the findings, budget for work, and create a plan. After a lawsuit or during escrow, the owner may have less control. Deadlines are tighter. Buyers may use the issue as leverage. Tenants may resist responsibility. Repairs may need to be priced quickly. That is when unknown risk becomes expensive. Can a CASp Report Create a Problem? Yes, if the owner handles it poorly. A CASp report can be helpful, but it can also create pressure if it identifies issues and the owner ignores them. The problem is not the report itself. The problem is having knowledge of potential issues with no plan to address them. That is why owners should speak with an ADA attorney and a qualified accessibility professional before ordering inspections, making written statements, or starting repairs. The right sequence matters. Get the right guidance. Define the purpose of the report. Review the findings. Create a realistic plan for what can be corrected, what may need more review, and what should be documented. How CASp Reports Can Affect Property Value CASp reports can affect value because they reduce uncertainty. Buyers do not only look at rent, Net Operating Income (NOI), lease term, cap rate, and tenant strength. They also look at risk. If a buyer sees unresolved ADA concerns with no report, no explanation, and no plan, the buyer may assume the worst. That can lead to a lower offer, a repair credit, a price reduction, a holdback, a longer due diligence period, or stronger seller protections. A CASp report can help shift the conversation from guessing to facts. That does not mean every buyer will ignore the issue. It does not mean the property is perfect. But it can help the owner show that the issue has been reviewed and that there is a plan. In real estate, fear often creates bigger discounts than facts. If a repair costs $20,000, the owner wants the discussion to be about $20,000, not a buyer guessing the issue could cost $100,000. That is how clarity can protect value. How CASp Reports Can Affect Leasing CASp reports can also affect leasing. A restaurant, medical tenant, dental tenant, franchise operator, or service tenant may care about accessibility before signing a lease or opening for business. If the owner understands the property’s accessibility issues before lease negotiations, the owner can better decide what work belongs to the landlord, what work belongs to the tenant, and whether the issue should affect rent, tenant improvement money, free rent, or delivery condition. Without that information, the owner may negotiate blind. That can cost money. What Retail Property Owners Should Do Retail owners should not treat CASp reports as a box to check. They should treat them as part of a risk and value strategy. Speak with an ADA attorney before ordering reports or making written statements. Use a qualified CASp professional who understands commercial properties and retail access issues. Define the purpose and scope of the report before the inspection begins. Create an action plan for items that may need correction and consider how the findings could affect a sale, refinance, lease negotiation, or tenant relationship. The goal is to avoid surprises. A surprise during escrow can become a price reduction. A surprise during a lease negotiation can become extra landlord work. A surprise after a lawsuit can become settlement pressure. Final Thought A CASp report is not magic. It does not eliminate every risk, replace legal advice, or automatically protect property value. But it can give a retail property owner something valuable: clarity. For retail property owners, the real value of a CASp report is not just knowing what is wrong. It is knowing what to do next. If you are considering a CASp report before a lease, refinance, or sale, I can help you think through how the findings may affect value, timing, and buyer leverage. In next week’s blog, “Readily Achievable ADA Repairs: What Retail Property Owners Should Understand,” we will discuss why some accessibility fixes may be more manageable than owners think, how year built can matter, and why current property condition matters more than assumptions. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #RetailPropertyOwners #ADACompliance #CASp #PropertyValue #CommercialProperty #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof September 11, 2026
Morning Consult: Five Below, other retailers among 25 fastest-growing brands Five Below is one of the fastest-growing brands in the U.S. The tween and teen extreme value retailer is the No. 10 fastest-growing brand overall and the only retailer to crack the top 10 in Morning Consult’s “Fastest Growing Brands 2026” report. The study ranks the top 25 brands according to year-over-year purchasing intent. A re-launched, decades-old soda brand, Mr. Pibb, ranked No. 1. Five Below’s purchasing consideration increased 3.2 points this year, according to the report. (The retailer recently reported that its second-quarter sales r ose 22.9% to $1.26 billion...)
More Posts