Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • August 2, 2024
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DTSM welcomes new chair, vice chairs and four new appointments to the board


Thursday’s meeting of Downtown Santa Monica, Inc. (DTSM) was all about new people in new positions as the board of directors welcomed the four new appointees and Michele Aronson was voted in as the new chair, replacing Eric Sedman.


A yellow background with white letters that say 100 under 100

100 Under 100: Emerging restaurant chains that are thriving in the U.S.


These brands with fewer than 100 locations have some serious growth momentum. This year’s Technomic Top 500 results were a mixed bag for the restaurant industry. On one hand, many large restaurant brands stagnated in 2023, with sales increases merely a reflection of menu price increases and with a full third of brands experiencing a net unit count decrease.


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Three sandwiches are lined up in a row on a white surface.

Old School Bagel Cafe Brings New York Flavor to Middle America


Danny Cowan spent 20 years working at the once-popular New York Bagel, franchising two locations in Denver. He perfected the New York–style of boiling bagels in water for 60 seconds before baking, creating a crisp outer layer and soft center. Outside of New York Bagel, this method wasn’t commonly used in Middle America at the time. 


Three bowls of fruit are sitting on a wooden table.

How Jamba is Reinventing Itself and Reconnecting with the Consumer


The same industry, but varying obstacles. For instance, the 730-unit Jamba is a seasonal brand and has a different franchise makeup than what Louer has been accustomed to. He was faced with getting to know the people involved, integrating into the broader GoTo Foods company (parent of Jamba, in addition to Auntie Anne’s, Cinnabon, Carvel, McAlister’s, Schlotzsky’s, and Moe’s), and understanding the nuances of the chain.



A kroger store and an albertsons market street store are next to each other.

Kroger, Albertsons $24.6B merger temporarily blocked by Colorado judge


The Kroger, Albertsons merger was postponed on Thursday by a Colorado judge, who granted a preliminary injunction for a hearing in August. The proposed $24.6 billion merger has been challenged in Colorado by the state attorney general. That’s in addition to a multi-state lawsuit led by the Federal Trade Commission and a separate lawsuit in Washington state.


A kroger store and an albertsons market street store are next to each other.

What impact would the Kroger, Albertsons merger have on gas stations?


Kroger and Albertsons are two of the largest fueling station providers in the country, operating roughly 1,408 U.S. fueling stations, but about 10% of those stations would be divested to C&S Wholesale Grocers if the $24.6 billion mega-merger of the two grocery chains is approved later this year.


A man is shopping for fruits and vegetables in a grocery store.

Amazon Fresh continues rapidly opening stores


More Amazon Fresh grocery stores are on the verge of opening up shop — most recently in Pennsylvania, according to the Philadelphia Business Journal. The online retail giant will open its next brick-and-mortar operation in Bensalem, Penn. 


The front of a big lots store with a blue sky in the background

Big Lots Plans About 140 Store Closings, Far More Than Expected


Money-losing discount retailer Big Lots is closing roughly 140 stores cross the country, more than triple the number it originally announced, in what one analyst said could be an attempt to cut losses by swiftly shutting some poorly performing locations.

The Columbus, Ohio-based company on its website has now identified 141 stores in 27 states that it said it will be shutting. Big Lots is most dramatically reducing its brick-and-mortar footprint — by a half — in California, where it plans to close 54 stores. It currently has 109 retail locations in the Golden State.


A red and white fast food restaurant with a car parked in front of it.

Jack in the Box Is Opening Over 100 Locations in These 4 States


With Jack in the Box's bold growth into Arkansas, Florida, Montana, Wyoming, and beyond, fast-food landscapes everywhere are about to get tastier. And if burgers aren’t your thing, no worries. Jack in the Box owns Del Taco too, and the taco chain is set to open 138 new locations. Just make sure to use one of the best cash back credit cards to save more during your visit.


A person is taking a slice of pizza out of a pizza hut box.

Large Pizza Hut Franchisee Files Bankruptcy Amid Legal Battle with Franchisor



A large Pizza Hut franchisee declared bankruptcy Monday weeks after the franchisor filed a lawsuit accusing the operator of financial mismanagement. EYM Pizza has 126 locations across Illinois, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Georgia. It recently shuttered its Indiana market, which had 15 stores.


The front of a store called conn 's home plus

Conn’s closing 71 stores — here’s where


Conn’s is starting liquidation sales at select stores across its operating area amid rumors that it is considering filing for bankruptcy.

The struggling, Texas-based retailer of furniture, mattresses, appliances and consumer electronics retailer is closing 71 stores in 13 states, with the locations to be shuttered listed on its website. Florida will see the largest amount of closings, with 18 stores going dark, followed by Texas, with nine closings. 


By Marc Perlof December 15, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 15, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what the newest Federal Reserve move means for your property today. Another ¼ point reduction in interest rates was the result of the Federal Reserve's most recent decision. Jerome Powell highlighted a weakening economy, decreasing inflation, and an obviously cooling labor market in his speech. He pointed out that while services continue to soften at a gradual, steady pace, goods inflation is still sticky due to tariffs. The Fed wants to reduce inflation without overturning the labor market, and employers are cutting down on hiring. Crucially, Powell also stated that policy is already almost neutral and that future decisions will be careful and data-driven rather than instinctive. As the year draws to a conclusion, these signals now influence the actions of regular investors. What does this mean for owners right now? Property values are not increased by rate reductions alone. They accomplish this by lowering uncertainty. Investors resume underwriting as borrowing costs become more predictable. Tours pick up, buyers start modeling offers they passed on a month earlier, and lenders start pricing. Activity nearly always rises first, even if final price has not yet changed. This translates into firmer terms, more talks, and buyers who are now ready to step off the sidelines for active listings. This change is supported by recent economic data. Due to consistent consumer expenditure, services are still growing. As new orders and jobs decline, manufacturing continues to suffer. While the manufacturing PMI is below 50 for the ninth consecutive month, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is in expansion territory. The majority of retail tenants reside in the services sector of the economy rather than the goods-producing sector, which makes this division significant. Expect additional momentum for current listings over the following few weeks. Because the US inflation forecast is uncertain, investors continue to underwrite cautiously; yet, direction is important. The direction is getting better for the first time in months. Powell's speech and the national surveys for Q1 and Q2 2026 indicate a two-stage year with a significant warning about future rate decreases. According to the Fed's own estimates, officials anticipate at most one more rate decrease in 2026. Powell emphasized that the Fed is "well positioned to wait" and evaluate new information before taking action. This implies that the market shouldn't anticipate quick or forceful relaxation. • Q1 2026 can seem sluggish. Input prices are still high, hiring is declining, and many companies will postpone plans for growth as they wait to see if inflation continues to decline. Buyers will remain picky as the Fed is probably on hold. • If inflation continues to decline and the Fed implements small, gradual monetary policy changes, Q2 2026 may see a recovery. When paired with more precise policy guidance, even one more cut can increase transaction volume before it increases pricing. Value shopping, food, retail related to everyday necessities, and service-based tenants ought to perform well. Thin-margin businesses and merchants who sell a lot of goods may find it difficult to keep up with growing expenses. Key insights for property owners today: • Services PMI remains in expansion, showing steady consumer demand². • Manufacturing PMI continues to contract, signaling weakness in goods production². • Employers across sectors are slowing hiring, supporting Powell’s cooling labor market comments¹. • Construction and TI costs remain high due to elevated material prices, including steel, electrical components, and aluminum². • Cap rates are unlikely to compress quickly, but clearer Fed guidance helps stabilize valuations. Recent data worth noting: The ISM non-manufacturing index remained above 52 in November 2025², showing healthy service-sector activity tied to consumer spending. Powell's warning that the job market is deteriorating was reinforced when manufacturing employment dropped to one of its lowest levels this year¹. This is the time for owners to get ready. As underwriting becomes more stringent, clean rent rolls, transparent financials, current CAM reconciliations, and compelling tenant narratives become increasingly important. The owners who are ready make the first gains when activity increases before prices change. If you want to understand how today’s economic shift and the Fed’s cautious 2026 outlook impact your value, cash flow, or timing for a sale or refinance, let’s talk. Call or DM me for more information. With the Fed signaling patience in 2026, are you positioned to benefit from higher activity before pricing fully adjusts? #RetailRealEstate #FederalReserve #CREInvestment #EconomicOutlook #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof December 12, 2025
If the Fed Is Cutting Interest Rates, Why Are 10-Year Treasury Yields Rising? How Does It Affect You? Official interest rates are declining, but not the rates that could matter the most to everyday Americans. Treasury yields ticked up to a three-month high on Wednesday morning despite near certainty on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve was hours away from cutting interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences interest rates on a variety of consumer loans including mortgages, rose Wednesday morning to 4.21%, its highest level since early September. Meanwhile, traders put the probability of a quarter-percentage-point cut today by the Fed at about 90%...
By Marc Perlof December 8, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 8, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. In uncertain markets, retail property owners feel the pressure first. Daily swings in interest rates, consumer confidence, and capital flows make it hard to predict what comes next. The challenge is simple: volatility throws doubt over every decision. The action you take today determines your cash flow tomorrow. And the result can be a stronger, more resilient investment position if you know where to move. Right now, investors are navigating mixed economic signals. Retail sales grew 3.9% year-over-year in Q3, yet borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the pre-2022 cycle¹. Inflation is at a 3.0% annual rate, but pricing remains sticky in service categories². These contradictions create hesitation for many owners. The smart operators don’t freeze. They pivot. They tighten operations, sharpen underwriting, and prepare their assets for the moment clarity returns. Here’s what the most experienced ownership groups are doing: • Stress testing rents, renewals, and expense loads using conservative economic assumptions³ • Re-underwriting tenant credit and evaluating exposure to weaker retail categories • Focusing on assets in trade areas with above-average household income growth³ • Front-loading maintenance and capital planning to preserve NOI predictability • Positioning properties for refinancing when spreads tighten and lenders re-enter the market³ Data points worth watching: Retail vacancy nationwide is hovering around 4.3%-5.8%⁴. Investment sales volume is down 35% year-over-year, but cap rates widened only modestly, showing continued buyer appetite for quality⁴. When markets are noisy, the winners keep discipline. They stay focused on fundamentals that never go out of style: tenant quality, location strength, and consistent reporting. Volatility rewards the prepared, not the passive. If you want clarity on how today’s market impacts the value of your specific property, I can break it down with precision. Call or DM me for more information. What strategic move are you avoiding today that could protect your property’s value tomorrow? #RetailRealEstate #CREInvesting #MarketInsights #NetLease #CommercialProperty
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