Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • July 26, 2024
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Santa Monica’s Third Street Promenade is a retail relic. Can it be saved?


Once Santa’s Monica’s signature destination for shopping and dining, the Third Street Promenade is showing its age.

Its decline has left the promenade’s landlords and city officials trying to counter years of stagnation, public safety concerns and fast-changing retail norms in an attempt to breathe new life into it.


A large white building with palm trees in front of it

Curtain rises on formal proposal to revitalize the Civic Center


The already made public, but technically secret deal to reopen Santa Monica’s Civic Auditorium will have its first formal announcement at Tuesday’s council meeting. Approval of an Exclusive Negotiation Agreement (ENA) with Revitalization Partners Group, LLC (RPG) is part of the consent calendar for the July 23 meeting but as the calendar is approved in bulk with no debate, there will be no discussion of the deal unless a councilmember specifically asks for it to be pulled from the group list.


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Big Lots’ Vacant Stores Could Be Leased Quickly in Tight Market, Analysts Say


Last month, Big Lots CEO Bruce Thorn told investors the company was "moving quickly and aggressively" to solidify its position "as America's discount home store." Then just a week later, the retailer reported it was closing as many as 40 locations and might have to cease operations. Columbus, Ohio-based Big Lots, struggling for several years now since the pandemic's end, has a vast brick-and-mortar footprint. Its roughly 1,400 stores occupy about 46.6 million square feet of space. Some or all of that could be up for grabs if the company is forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection or, worse-case scenario, has to liquidate.


A panera restaurant with umbrellas in front of it

Report: Panera Brands Explores Sale of Caribou Coffee and Einstein Bros. Bagels


Panera Brands is reportedly exploring a sale of Caribou Coffee and Einstein Bros. Bagels, according to Reuters. The deal could be valued at more than $1.5 billion. Reuters said Bank of America is running the sales process and that restaurant operators and private equity firms have shown interest in acquiring the chains. The transaction would also include Bruegger’s Bagels, Noah’s New York Bagels, and Manhattan Bagel. According to the publication, Panera wants a valuation 10 times its EBITDA of $150 million in 2024.


A box of assorted donuts from krispy kreme

Krispy Kreme sells majority stake of Insomnia Cookies


Krispy Kreme is doubling down on its doughnuts business. Krispy Kreme said it has sold its majority ownership stake of Insomnia Cookies to Verlinvest and Mistral Equity Partners. The company received $127.4 million for the sale and expects to receive an additional $45 million in the coming weeks following an Insomnia Cookies refinancing of intercompany debt. 


The front of a conn 's home plus store.

Report: Conn’s to close 100 stores, considers bankruptcy


Conn’s may be downsizing its store portfolio. The struggling, Texas-based retailer of furniture, mattresses, appliances and consumer electronics may close about 100 locations and liquidate the inventory as part of a possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, reported Bloomberg. 


The front of a walgreens store with a red and white sign.

S&P Global Ratings downgrades Walgreens, citing struggles in both pharmacy and retail


S&P Global Ratings analysts have downgraded Walgreens Boot Alliance by two notches, to ‘BB’ from ‘BBB-’, which puts the drugstore company into speculative-grade territory. Analysts Diya Iyer and Hanna Zhang cited guidance for the year “notably below” their expectations, and said “material strategic changes, limited cash flow generation, and large maturities in coming years are key risks to the business.”


A person is holding a silver trophy in their hand.

Von Maur, Costco, Trader Joe’s among U.S. best retailers — by category


Quality products, reasonable prices and excellent customer service — these are the attributes that allow retailers to succeed. That’s according to Newsweek, which partnered with Statista to release the third annual ranking of "America's Best Retailers." More than 7,000 shoppers were surveyed for their opinions on retailers spanning 40 industry categories (such as apparel, electronics and supermarkets), resulting in a ranking that recognizes the 200 best places to make a purchase, according to Newsweek.



Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....

How Rising Oil Prices and Job Losses Could Affect Retail Property Values in 2026

By Marc Perlof • March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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