Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • June 14, 2024
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Measure ULA gets another day in court


A group fighting Measure  ULA has another chance to strike down the City of Los Angeles’ real estate transfer tax, after a court agreed to review a case challenging the measure. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit will hear arguments over the legality of Measure ULA, which adds a 4 percent tax on commercial and residential sales over $5 million and 5.5 percent tax on sales over $10 million, according to a court notice last week.


French toast with whipped cream and strawberries on a white plate.

Jinky’s Cafe is Returning to Santa Monica


Several months after The Independence, a modern tavern formerly located in the heart of downtown Santa Monica, vacated its space at the intersection of Broadway and 2nd, a Los Angeles coffee shop chain is taking its spot to make a return to the Westside.


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A sign for porillo 's hot dogs beef burgers and salads

Portillo’s Path to Growth Becomes Even Clearer


Presenting at William Blair’s 44th annual Growth Stock Conference, Portillo’s shared two sides of the potential it’s touted since going public in October 2021. Long-term, the Chicago-born brand wants to accelerate to 12–15 percent annual expansion. That would translate to mid-teens sales growth on a low-single-digit comp, and low-teens adjusted EBITDA expansion.


There is a couch and a table in the middle of the room.

Boot Barn is opening one store a week to cement itself as a national lifestyle brand


Western wear retailer Boot Barn sees stores as the key to building a bigger brand following. A lot of stores. Over the past 12 years, Boot Barn’s footprint has grown from 86 locations in eight states to 400 stores across 45 states. It opened 55 new stores in 2024, more than one per week. Boot Barn sees a path to opening 500 more stores by fiscal year 2030.


A family dollar store with a red sign in front of it.

Who Would Want To Buy Family Dollar? The Answer Could Be Far-Flung.


With discount chain Family Dollar possibly going up for sale, retail industry analysts and brokers are speculating on who would have the financial wherewithal — or motivation — to acquire a business with nearly 8,000 stores.


A jack in the box restaurant with a purple and white building.

Jack in the Box to Open Restaurants in Georgia for the First Time


Jack in the Box announced a significant development agreement to open 15 new Jack in the Box locations throughout Georgia. This expansion marks the company’s entry into the Peach State and signifies continued dynamic growth for the brand in the Southeastern United States.


A person is holding a cell phone with a chicken basket app on it.

Long John Silver’s Makes Big Progress on Refreshed Identity


Long John Silver’s president Nate Fowler knows it isn’t a secret he and his team took on a turnaround opportunity when he joined a year and a half ago. As the roughly 500-unit brand approaches its 55th anniversary in August, it continues to explore strategies to elevate an “old-line brand that had some image issues,” the executive says.


A carl 's jr. drive thru sign is lit up at night

Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s Find Strength in Separation


As leadership began to form under Max Wetzel, who assumed the CEO post of CKE Restaurants in March 2023, migrating over after a four-year run with Papa Johns, it became clear the company had an identity crisis. Only, in this case, Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. each had the issue of being too distinct.


A graph showing a strong start to 2024

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below: Q1 2024 Treasure Troves


We dove into the data to check in with specialty discount chains Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below. How did they fare in early 2024? And what can the two brands’ recent performance tell us about what lies in store for them in the months ahead?


A building with a sign that says sushi on it

Rubio’s Closes 48 California Restaurants, Citing Business Costs


Fast-casual restaurant chain Rubio’s Coastal Grill closed 48 California locations, citing rising costs of doing business in the state after a law required higher pay for some workers.


A group of men are sitting around a table talking to each other.

Commercial Real Estate Needs To Follow the "Moneyball" Principle of Adapt or Die


In the popular movie, "Moneyball," the general manager of the Oakland Athletics Major League Baseball team played by Brad Pitt is faced with the challenge of competing against wealthy teams with his gutted roster and a restrictive budget. Given the realities of his situation, the manager is forced to ignore conventional wisdom and fires his head scout, telling him they must "adapt or die."


A big lots sign is on the side of a building

Big Lots posts 10.2% sales decline in Q1


Shares of discount retailer Big Lots tumbled Thursday after the company reported first-quarter sales declines that were steeper than anticipated. Big Lots previously had forecasted comp-store sales declines in the mid-single digits.


By Marc Perlof December 15, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 15, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what the newest Federal Reserve move means for your property today. Another ¼ point reduction in interest rates was the result of the Federal Reserve's most recent decision. Jerome Powell highlighted a weakening economy, decreasing inflation, and an obviously cooling labor market in his speech. He pointed out that while services continue to soften at a gradual, steady pace, goods inflation is still sticky due to tariffs. The Fed wants to reduce inflation without overturning the labor market, and employers are cutting down on hiring. Crucially, Powell also stated that policy is already almost neutral and that future decisions will be careful and data-driven rather than instinctive. As the year draws to a conclusion, these signals now influence the actions of regular investors. What does this mean for owners right now? Property values are not increased by rate reductions alone. They accomplish this by lowering uncertainty. Investors resume underwriting as borrowing costs become more predictable. Tours pick up, buyers start modeling offers they passed on a month earlier, and lenders start pricing. Activity nearly always rises first, even if final price has not yet changed. This translates into firmer terms, more talks, and buyers who are now ready to step off the sidelines for active listings. This change is supported by recent economic data. Due to consistent consumer expenditure, services are still growing. As new orders and jobs decline, manufacturing continues to suffer. While the manufacturing PMI is below 50 for the ninth consecutive month, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is in expansion territory. The majority of retail tenants reside in the services sector of the economy rather than the goods-producing sector, which makes this division significant. Expect additional momentum for current listings over the following few weeks. Because the US inflation forecast is uncertain, investors continue to underwrite cautiously; yet, direction is important. The direction is getting better for the first time in months. Powell's speech and the national surveys for Q1 and Q2 2026 indicate a two-stage year with a significant warning about future rate decreases. According to the Fed's own estimates, officials anticipate at most one more rate decrease in 2026. Powell emphasized that the Fed is "well positioned to wait" and evaluate new information before taking action. This implies that the market shouldn't anticipate quick or forceful relaxation. • Q1 2026 can seem sluggish. Input prices are still high, hiring is declining, and many companies will postpone plans for growth as they wait to see if inflation continues to decline. Buyers will remain picky as the Fed is probably on hold. • If inflation continues to decline and the Fed implements small, gradual monetary policy changes, Q2 2026 may see a recovery. When paired with more precise policy guidance, even one more cut can increase transaction volume before it increases pricing. Value shopping, food, retail related to everyday necessities, and service-based tenants ought to perform well. Thin-margin businesses and merchants who sell a lot of goods may find it difficult to keep up with growing expenses. Key insights for property owners today: • Services PMI remains in expansion, showing steady consumer demand². • Manufacturing PMI continues to contract, signaling weakness in goods production². • Employers across sectors are slowing hiring, supporting Powell’s cooling labor market comments¹. • Construction and TI costs remain high due to elevated material prices, including steel, electrical components, and aluminum². • Cap rates are unlikely to compress quickly, but clearer Fed guidance helps stabilize valuations. Recent data worth noting: The ISM non-manufacturing index remained above 52 in November 2025², showing healthy service-sector activity tied to consumer spending. Powell's warning that the job market is deteriorating was reinforced when manufacturing employment dropped to one of its lowest levels this year¹. This is the time for owners to get ready. As underwriting becomes more stringent, clean rent rolls, transparent financials, current CAM reconciliations, and compelling tenant narratives become increasingly important. The owners who are ready make the first gains when activity increases before prices change. If you want to understand how today’s economic shift and the Fed’s cautious 2026 outlook impact your value, cash flow, or timing for a sale or refinance, let’s talk. Call or DM me for more information. With the Fed signaling patience in 2026, are you positioned to benefit from higher activity before pricing fully adjusts? #RetailRealEstate #FederalReserve #CREInvestment #EconomicOutlook #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof December 12, 2025
If the Fed Is Cutting Interest Rates, Why Are 10-Year Treasury Yields Rising? How Does It Affect You? Official interest rates are declining, but not the rates that could matter the most to everyday Americans. Treasury yields ticked up to a three-month high on Wednesday morning despite near certainty on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve was hours away from cutting interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences interest rates on a variety of consumer loans including mortgages, rose Wednesday morning to 4.21%, its highest level since early September. Meanwhile, traders put the probability of a quarter-percentage-point cut today by the Fed at about 90%...
By Marc Perlof December 8, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 8, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. In uncertain markets, retail property owners feel the pressure first. Daily swings in interest rates, consumer confidence, and capital flows make it hard to predict what comes next. The challenge is simple: volatility throws doubt over every decision. The action you take today determines your cash flow tomorrow. And the result can be a stronger, more resilient investment position if you know where to move. Right now, investors are navigating mixed economic signals. Retail sales grew 3.9% year-over-year in Q3, yet borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the pre-2022 cycle¹. Inflation is at a 3.0% annual rate, but pricing remains sticky in service categories². These contradictions create hesitation for many owners. The smart operators don’t freeze. They pivot. They tighten operations, sharpen underwriting, and prepare their assets for the moment clarity returns. Here’s what the most experienced ownership groups are doing: • Stress testing rents, renewals, and expense loads using conservative economic assumptions³ • Re-underwriting tenant credit and evaluating exposure to weaker retail categories • Focusing on assets in trade areas with above-average household income growth³ • Front-loading maintenance and capital planning to preserve NOI predictability • Positioning properties for refinancing when spreads tighten and lenders re-enter the market³ Data points worth watching: Retail vacancy nationwide is hovering around 4.3%-5.8%⁴. Investment sales volume is down 35% year-over-year, but cap rates widened only modestly, showing continued buyer appetite for quality⁴. When markets are noisy, the winners keep discipline. They stay focused on fundamentals that never go out of style: tenant quality, location strength, and consistent reporting. Volatility rewards the prepared, not the passive. If you want clarity on how today’s market impacts the value of your specific property, I can break it down with precision. Call or DM me for more information. What strategic move are you avoiding today that could protect your property’s value tomorrow? #RetailRealEstate #CREInvesting #MarketInsights #NetLease #CommercialProperty
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