Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • June 14, 2024
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Measure ULA gets another day in court


A group fighting Measure  ULA has another chance to strike down the City of Los Angeles’ real estate transfer tax, after a court agreed to review a case challenging the measure. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit will hear arguments over the legality of Measure ULA, which adds a 4 percent tax on commercial and residential sales over $5 million and 5.5 percent tax on sales over $10 million, according to a court notice last week.


French toast with whipped cream and strawberries on a white plate.

Jinky’s Cafe is Returning to Santa Monica


Several months after The Independence, a modern tavern formerly located in the heart of downtown Santa Monica, vacated its space at the intersection of Broadway and 2nd, a Los Angeles coffee shop chain is taking its spot to make a return to the Westside.


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A sign for porillo 's hot dogs beef burgers and salads

Portillo’s Path to Growth Becomes Even Clearer


Presenting at William Blair’s 44th annual Growth Stock Conference, Portillo’s shared two sides of the potential it’s touted since going public in October 2021. Long-term, the Chicago-born brand wants to accelerate to 12–15 percent annual expansion. That would translate to mid-teens sales growth on a low-single-digit comp, and low-teens adjusted EBITDA expansion.


There is a couch and a table in the middle of the room.

Boot Barn is opening one store a week to cement itself as a national lifestyle brand


Western wear retailer Boot Barn sees stores as the key to building a bigger brand following. A lot of stores. Over the past 12 years, Boot Barn’s footprint has grown from 86 locations in eight states to 400 stores across 45 states. It opened 55 new stores in 2024, more than one per week. Boot Barn sees a path to opening 500 more stores by fiscal year 2030.


A family dollar store with a red sign in front of it.

Who Would Want To Buy Family Dollar? The Answer Could Be Far-Flung.


With discount chain Family Dollar possibly going up for sale, retail industry analysts and brokers are speculating on who would have the financial wherewithal — or motivation — to acquire a business with nearly 8,000 stores.


A jack in the box restaurant with a purple and white building.

Jack in the Box to Open Restaurants in Georgia for the First Time


Jack in the Box announced a significant development agreement to open 15 new Jack in the Box locations throughout Georgia. This expansion marks the company’s entry into the Peach State and signifies continued dynamic growth for the brand in the Southeastern United States.


A person is holding a cell phone with a chicken basket app on it.

Long John Silver’s Makes Big Progress on Refreshed Identity


Long John Silver’s president Nate Fowler knows it isn’t a secret he and his team took on a turnaround opportunity when he joined a year and a half ago. As the roughly 500-unit brand approaches its 55th anniversary in August, it continues to explore strategies to elevate an “old-line brand that had some image issues,” the executive says.


A carl 's jr. drive thru sign is lit up at night

Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s Find Strength in Separation


As leadership began to form under Max Wetzel, who assumed the CEO post of CKE Restaurants in March 2023, migrating over after a four-year run with Papa Johns, it became clear the company had an identity crisis. Only, in this case, Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. each had the issue of being too distinct.


A graph showing a strong start to 2024

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below: Q1 2024 Treasure Troves


We dove into the data to check in with specialty discount chains Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below. How did they fare in early 2024? And what can the two brands’ recent performance tell us about what lies in store for them in the months ahead?


A building with a sign that says sushi on it

Rubio’s Closes 48 California Restaurants, Citing Business Costs


Fast-casual restaurant chain Rubio’s Coastal Grill closed 48 California locations, citing rising costs of doing business in the state after a law required higher pay for some workers.


A group of men are sitting around a table talking to each other.

Commercial Real Estate Needs To Follow the "Moneyball" Principle of Adapt or Die


In the popular movie, "Moneyball," the general manager of the Oakland Athletics Major League Baseball team played by Brad Pitt is faced with the challenge of competing against wealthy teams with his gutted roster and a restrictive budget. Given the realities of his situation, the manager is forced to ignore conventional wisdom and fires his head scout, telling him they must "adapt or die."


A big lots sign is on the side of a building

Big Lots posts 10.2% sales decline in Q1


Shares of discount retailer Big Lots tumbled Thursday after the company reported first-quarter sales declines that were steeper than anticipated. Big Lots previously had forecasted comp-store sales declines in the mid-single digits.


By Marc Perlof October 31, 2025
Fed Cuts Rates Again, Boosting Confidence in CRE Recovery In a closely watched decision, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive month. The new target range of 3.75% to 4% reflects continued efforts to ease financial conditions and stabilize capital markets, even as economic signals remain mixed...
By Marc Perlof October 27, 2025
If you own retail real estate, here’s what might change for you. The hospitality workers’ union UNITE HERE Local 11 is pushing a bold new initiative to raise the City of Los Angeles $30 minimum wage for all city employees by July 1, 2028¹. While the first ordinance covered hotel and airport workers, the union’s latest ballot measure would extend this wage citywide². As an expert in retail real estate, here’s what that means for your properties. Higher wages will immediately impact tenant affordability and rent-to-sales ratio calculations that drive lease viability. Many retailers operate with payroll costs at 25 to 35 percent of gross revenue, leaving little cushion for a wage that’s nearly double the current state minimum of $16/hour³. When margins tighten, tenants face a choice: raise prices, cut staff, or negotiate rent. For landlords, that translates into valuation pressure because commercial property values depend on stable rental income. The small business impact in Los Angeles could be profound. Independent restaurants, boutiques, and service operators, the lifeblood of local shopping centers, run on razor-thin profits. If forced to meet a $30 wage, some may relocate to cities like Burbank or Glendale, where municipal wage laws are lower, or close entirely⁴. That shift could spark short-term vacancy spikes and longer lease-up periods. Still, there’s a possible upside. When low-wage workers earn more, they spend more locally. For well-positioned centers with necessity-based tenants: grocers, pharmacies, quick-service restaurants, rising wages could strengthen revenue resilience. Key takeaways for retail landlords: Audit tenant financial health and exposure to rising payroll costs. Review lease clauses that address operating-cost pass-throughs. Model new rent-to-sales thresholds under a $30 wage scenario. Track tenant retention and market-rent shifts across nearby cities. Prepare for valuation adjustments as cap rates reflect greater income volatility. If you own retail real estate in the City of Los Angeles, now’s the time to stress-test your portfolio. Let’s review your leases before this wage shift hits. Call or DM me for more information. When the $30 wage arrives, will higher pay strengthen LA’s consumer base or hollow out the city’s small-business retail core? #LosAngeles30MinimumWage #RetailRealEstateInLosAngeles #TenantAffordabilityAndRentToSalesRatio #SmallBusinessImpactLosAngeles #CommercialPropertyValuesLosAngeles
By Marc Perlof October 24, 2025
Toys"R"Us opening 10 flagships, 20 seasonal shops — here are all the locations The brick and mortar comeback of Toys"R"Us is moving into high gear ahead of the toy industry’s busiest season. In September, the retailer said that, in partnership with Go! Retail Group, it was planning to open 10 flagships and 20 seasonal holiday shops in the U.S. by year's end...
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