Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • June 14, 2024
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Measure ULA gets another day in court


A group fighting Measure  ULA has another chance to strike down the City of Los Angeles’ real estate transfer tax, after a court agreed to review a case challenging the measure. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit will hear arguments over the legality of Measure ULA, which adds a 4 percent tax on commercial and residential sales over $5 million and 5.5 percent tax on sales over $10 million, according to a court notice last week.


French toast with whipped cream and strawberries on a white plate.

Jinky’s Cafe is Returning to Santa Monica


Several months after The Independence, a modern tavern formerly located in the heart of downtown Santa Monica, vacated its space at the intersection of Broadway and 2nd, a Los Angeles coffee shop chain is taking its spot to make a return to the Westside.


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A sign for porillo 's hot dogs beef burgers and salads

Portillo’s Path to Growth Becomes Even Clearer


Presenting at William Blair’s 44th annual Growth Stock Conference, Portillo’s shared two sides of the potential it’s touted since going public in October 2021. Long-term, the Chicago-born brand wants to accelerate to 12–15 percent annual expansion. That would translate to mid-teens sales growth on a low-single-digit comp, and low-teens adjusted EBITDA expansion.


There is a couch and a table in the middle of the room.

Boot Barn is opening one store a week to cement itself as a national lifestyle brand


Western wear retailer Boot Barn sees stores as the key to building a bigger brand following. A lot of stores. Over the past 12 years, Boot Barn’s footprint has grown from 86 locations in eight states to 400 stores across 45 states. It opened 55 new stores in 2024, more than one per week. Boot Barn sees a path to opening 500 more stores by fiscal year 2030.


A family dollar store with a red sign in front of it.

Who Would Want To Buy Family Dollar? The Answer Could Be Far-Flung.


With discount chain Family Dollar possibly going up for sale, retail industry analysts and brokers are speculating on who would have the financial wherewithal — or motivation — to acquire a business with nearly 8,000 stores.


A jack in the box restaurant with a purple and white building.

Jack in the Box to Open Restaurants in Georgia for the First Time


Jack in the Box announced a significant development agreement to open 15 new Jack in the Box locations throughout Georgia. This expansion marks the company’s entry into the Peach State and signifies continued dynamic growth for the brand in the Southeastern United States.


A person is holding a cell phone with a chicken basket app on it.

Long John Silver’s Makes Big Progress on Refreshed Identity


Long John Silver’s president Nate Fowler knows it isn’t a secret he and his team took on a turnaround opportunity when he joined a year and a half ago. As the roughly 500-unit brand approaches its 55th anniversary in August, it continues to explore strategies to elevate an “old-line brand that had some image issues,” the executive says.


A carl 's jr. drive thru sign is lit up at night

Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s Find Strength in Separation


As leadership began to form under Max Wetzel, who assumed the CEO post of CKE Restaurants in March 2023, migrating over after a four-year run with Papa Johns, it became clear the company had an identity crisis. Only, in this case, Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. each had the issue of being too distinct.


A graph showing a strong start to 2024

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below: Q1 2024 Treasure Troves


We dove into the data to check in with specialty discount chains Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below. How did they fare in early 2024? And what can the two brands’ recent performance tell us about what lies in store for them in the months ahead?


A building with a sign that says sushi on it

Rubio’s Closes 48 California Restaurants, Citing Business Costs


Fast-casual restaurant chain Rubio’s Coastal Grill closed 48 California locations, citing rising costs of doing business in the state after a law required higher pay for some workers.


A group of men are sitting around a table talking to each other.

Commercial Real Estate Needs To Follow the "Moneyball" Principle of Adapt or Die


In the popular movie, "Moneyball," the general manager of the Oakland Athletics Major League Baseball team played by Brad Pitt is faced with the challenge of competing against wealthy teams with his gutted roster and a restrictive budget. Given the realities of his situation, the manager is forced to ignore conventional wisdom and fires his head scout, telling him they must "adapt or die."


A big lots sign is on the side of a building

Big Lots posts 10.2% sales decline in Q1


Shares of discount retailer Big Lots tumbled Thursday after the company reported first-quarter sales declines that were steeper than anticipated. Big Lots previously had forecasted comp-store sales declines in the mid-single digits.


By Marc Perlof February 2, 2026
Retail Real Estate 2026: Why Some Properties Stay Strong While Others Struggle By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy February 2, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed. Retail real estate in 2026 is no longer one market. It has split into clear winners and clear losers. Owners who understand this are protecting value. Owners who do not are feeling pressure. The biggest change is how people spend money when things feel uncertain. Interest rates are higher. Costs are up. Households are more careful. That shift shows up first at the property level. Some retail feels stress faster than others. Lifestyle centers, nightlife areas, entertainment districts, and tourist retail depend on optional spending. When people cut back, visits drop. Sales slow. Tenants push back on rent. Vacancies last longer. This is not a crash. It is a pressure issue tied to spending people can delay. Other retail performs differently. Grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, medical and dental, quick-service food, auto service, and personal care are built around daily habits. People cut wants before needs. That makes income steadier and easier to support in a cautious market. Recent retail market reports show this split clearly. National retail vacancy stayed fairly stable through late 2025, mostly in the mid-5 percent to high-6 percent range, with necessity-based centers performing better than discretionary locations¹. Leasing slowed in 2025, with longer decision times and more rent pushback, especially from non-essential tenants². Buyers are still active, but they are more careful. They now focus on tenant quality, lease length, and operating costs more than rent growth³. What retail owners should focus on right now • Daily-needs tenants reduce risk. Properties with grocery, medical, pharmacy, and quick-service food see more stable rent and fewer concession requests. That helps protect sale price and lender support in slower markets¹. • Grocery-anchored centers sell faster. Buyers still want these assets because traffic is predictable and costs are easier to pass through. These deals tend to fall apart less often³. • Discretionary retail carries pricing risk. Properties tied to optional spending face longer vacancies, rent resistance at renewal, and wider gaps between buyer and seller pricing. Waiting too long to adjust can hurt value, not just cash flow². One thing is becoming clear in early 2026. The market is not pricing retail as one category anymore. It is pricing risk. Two properties with the same income can be worth very different amounts based on tenant mix, lease terms, and rising expenses. Owners who understand this protect equity. Others only see the gap after a buyer or lender points it out. The takeaway is simple. Retail real estate in 2026 is about quality, not hype. Stable income matters. Lease terms matter. Tenant mix matters. Insurance and operating costs matter. Owners who match strategy to how their tenants actually perform stay in control. Owners who rely on old assumptions end up reacting. If you want a clear, property-specific review of how buyers and lenders would view your retail asset today, I can prepare a short market positioning summary. No templates. No guesses. Just how your property would really trade in this market. Ask yourself this. Is your property built around spending people can delay, or spending they rely on every week? #RetailRealEstate2026 #RetailMarketOutlook #EssentialServicesRetail #GroceryAnchoredRetailCenters #DiscretionaryRetailProperties
By Marc Perlof January 30, 2026
Smoothie King plots 90-plus new openings for 2026 The world’s largest smoothie franchise isn’t planning on slowing down its growth after a strong 2025.  Smoothie King says it plans to open more than 90 new store openings in 2026, in addition to launching a targeted franchisee incentive program spanning several key states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and more. Through the program, Smoothie King says it is offering financial incentives to “growth-minded franchisees,” designed to accelerate brand awareness and density in these markets...
By Marc Perlof January 26, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy January 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. 2026 is shaping up to be a year where retail property owners need to pay attention. Not to fear. Not to headlines. To real signals in the market. There is more global and domestic uncertainty right now. Conflicts overseas, trade tension, higher government debt, and political changes in the U.S. all affect interest rates, insurance markets, and investor behavior. This does not mean panic. It means owners need clear, reliable information. Here is where the retail market stands today. Local retail remained steady through late 2025. In Los Angeles County, vacancy ranged from about 5.6 to 6.9 percent in the second half of the year¹²³. That tells us demand is still healthy, even as some tenants adjust space needs or renew leases at new rent levels. Leasing activity slowed in some areas. Spaces are taking longer to fill, and asking rents softened slightly as owners and tenants reset pricing². This is a normal market adjustment, not a collapse. On the investment side, commercial real estate transactions increased nationally through mid 2025. Both the number of deals and total dollar volume rose, showing capital is still moving⁵. Buyers are active when pricing reflects today’s risks and returns. This is exactly what I am seeing in live pricing discussions and negotiations right now. Insurance remains one of the biggest issues for retail owners. Property insurance markets became more stable in 2025, and rate increases slowed in some areas. However, insurers are still selective. Coverage terms matter more than ever, especially for properties exposed to wildfire or coastal risk⁴. Insurance costs directly affect net income, lease negotiations, and buyer interest. Retail Outlook for Q1 and Q2 2026 In early 2026, the retail market is likely to stay steady but measured. Vacancy is expected to remain near current levels. Leasing will be deliberate, not rushed. Rents should hold close to where they ended in 2025 as owners and tenants continue to agree on realistic pricing. Capital will remain active for properties with solid income, strong tenant credit, and durable lease terms. Buyers are selective, but they are still moving forward when risk and return are properly aligned. Insurance markets will stay selective in the first half of 2026. Owners need to plan renewals carefully and understand how insurance affects operating costs, tenant negotiations, and future sale value. Here is a simple retail risk check for 2026: • Local vacancy around 6 percent, stable but uneven by location¹ • Leasing takes longer than peak years, making pricing discipline critical² • Capital remains active, but underwriting is conservative⁵ • Insurance coverage is improving in some areas, but terms still matter⁴ Not all retail performs the same. Discretionary-driven destinations like lifestyle centers, nightlife districts, and tourist-focused shopping streets feel more pressure when consumer spending slows. Retail that serves daily needs and essential services tends to perform better during uncertain cycles. The best strategy now is disciplined and data-driven. Focus on tenant credit strength. Protect lease term and income stability. Price based on real market data. Understand insurance risk clearly. This is how value is protected in changing markets. I help retail property owners position assets based on real tenant behavior and real buyer demand. Not headlines. Call or DM me if you want a clear view of how your retail property should be positioned for 2026. How will you adjust your leasing or investment strategy this year based on what the market is actually telling us? #RetailRealEstate #LosAngelesCRE #CommercialRealEstateOutlook #RetailInvestment #CRE2026 #MarcRetailGuy
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