Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 8, 2024
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A target store with a stop sign in front of it

Target to open 300 stores over next decade

 

Target Corp. reported fourth-quarter sales and earnings above Street expectations amid lower markdowns and improved in-stocks, but warned of sluggish sales for the current year. Separately, the retailer said it will launch a paid membership program, called Target Circle 360, in April. The program, announced at Target's investor day,  will include unlimited free same-day delivery for orders over $35 in as little as one hour and two free-day shipping, along with other perks. 


A fast food restaurant with a blue roof and blue awnings

Regional Dutch Bros Coffee Chain Brews Up National Expansion

 

When Dutch Bros debuted its first coffee shop last month in California's Orange County, throngs of people were waiting. Some had arrived the night before, and others traveled from as far as Arizona for the grand opening that morning. The line to get served "stretched for more than a mile," Christine Barone, the chain's CEO, said during the company's call to discuss its fourth-quarter earnings.


A restaurant with a sign that says `` order here ''.

Founders Table Forges Growth Plan for Collection of Premium Fast Casuals

 

Founders Table Restaurant Group comprises concepts created by operators who never let go of their curiosity. Chopt cofounders Tony Shure and Colin McCabe wondered why salad couldn’t be a side dish. Brothers Liam and Oliver Kremer wanted to know why they couldn’t find a decent mission-style burrito in New York, which led to Dos Toros. FIELDTRIP founder and James Beard Award-winning chef JJ Johnson had a vision to bring healthy rice bowls to Harlem when no one else did. 


The front of a foot locker store in washington heights

Foot Locker in Q4 loss; to unveil store of the future, revamp existing stores


Foot Locker ended its fiscal year on a slightly downbeat note, reporting a loss for the fourth quarter and issuing weak guidance. Despite the loss, the athletic shoe and apparel retailer still beat analysts’ expectations. But it warned that it would not meet the  profitability goal — to reach an EBIT margin of 8.5% to 9% by 2028 — it disclosed at its March 2023 Investor Day on time 


Cars are parked in front of a ross dress for less store

Ross Stores to open 90 new stores in 2024


Ross Stores easily topped expectations for its fourth quarter, but warned that housing, food and gasoline costs continue to put pressure on its customers. In a statement, CEO Barbara Rentler cited the “sustained” sales momentum that began in its second quarter and continued through the holiday season, but cautioned there remains “ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environments.” 


A club sandwich is stacked on top of each other on a plate on a table.

McAlister’s Cracks $1 Billion, but Best is Yet to Come


For the first time in company history, McAlister’s surpassed $1 billion in sales in 2023, fulfilling a prediction the chain tracked for a few years now. It’s a big number, but chief brand officer Mike Freeman says the accomplishment boils down to a handful of key pillars. The first is decision-making and leading with the guest experience. The second is legacy franchise ownership and brand leadership working harmoniously to drive the company forward. 


A fried chicken sandwich with lettuce , tomato , onions and french fries on a plate.

Roots Chicken Shak Unveils a Unique Path to Expanding Beyond Food Halls


Tom Foley typically doesn’t eat fried food. Yet, during a menu tasting for chef Tiffany Derry’s duck-fat fried chicken concept Roots Chicken Shak, Foley took one bite of the Big Bird sandwich, “and I didn’t stop. I finished it,” he recalls. “And then Tiffany comes out with a Spicy Bird, the spicy version of it. I took a bite and finished it. At one point she looks at me, because we still have chicken wings and tenders to go through, and Tiffany goes, ‘you know this is a tasting, right?’ I’m not so sure if that’s how you’re supposed to have a tasting.”


An artist 's impression of a grocery store with a green ceiling.

Whole Foods to roll out small-format store concept — here’s what it will look like


Whole Foods Market is going small with a new concept for dense metro areas.The natural and organic foods grocer is launching a “quick-shop” store format that’s designed to provide customers in urban neighborhoods a quick and convenient shopping experience. Dubbed “Whole Foods Market Daily Shop,” the stores will range between 7,000 sq. ft. to 14,000 sq. ft., which is about a quarter to half the footprint of an average 40,000-sq.-ft. Whole Foods location. 


A grocery outlet is now open in a shopping center.

Grocery Outlet to open 15 - 20 stores in 2024; 100 approved sites for 2025 and 2026


Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is expanding its reach.The extreme discount grocer opened 13 new stores during its fourth quarter, including its first location in Ohio, for a total of 468 stores in nine states. It plans to open 15 to 20 new stores in 2024.


A red building with the word appetizers on it

Ribs With Your Pancakes? Applebee’s and IHOP Placed Under One Roof As Eateries Test Formats


Dine Brands Global is looking to develop more dual-branded restaurants, blending some of its new Applebee’s and IHOP restaurants into one eatery under the same roof to save money on real estate and supplies while driving more sales. Competitors including Outback Steakhouse and the Cheesecake Factory are also looking for property efficiencies. They are planning expansions and remodeling restaurants to capitalize on steady restaurant spending of the past three years after dining room shutdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic’s early months. 


An artist 's impression of a burger king restaurant

Church’s Road Back Began with Finding Itself Again


This compass—“who we are”—has served as the central theme in the 72-year-old brand’s turnaround since Guith, a former GoTo Foods (then Focus Brands) executive, arrived in early August 2022. Church’s was founded in 1952 in San Antonio, Texas, by George W. Church. It was a walk-up stand located a block south of the Alamo that sold two pieces of chicken and a roll for 49 cents. It began as “Church’s Fried Chicken-To-Go.” 


A dutch bros store with a truck parked in front of it.

Dutch Bros to open 150 to 165 shops in 2024; moving some corporate jobs to Phoenix


Dutch Bros ended the year on an upbeat note as it continues to drive new store growth. The fast-growing drive-thru coffee chain’s total revenue rose 25.9% to $254.1 million in the fourth quarter (ended Dec. 31). For the full year, total revenue grew 30.7% to $965.8 million.


By Marc Perlof February 2, 2026
Retail Real Estate 2026: Why Some Properties Stay Strong While Others Struggle By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy February 2, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed. Retail real estate in 2026 is no longer one market. It has split into clear winners and clear losers. Owners who understand this are protecting value. Owners who do not are feeling pressure. The biggest change is how people spend money when things feel uncertain. Interest rates are higher. Costs are up. Households are more careful. That shift shows up first at the property level. Some retail feels stress faster than others. Lifestyle centers, nightlife areas, entertainment districts, and tourist retail depend on optional spending. When people cut back, visits drop. Sales slow. Tenants push back on rent. Vacancies last longer. This is not a crash. It is a pressure issue tied to spending people can delay. Other retail performs differently. Grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, medical and dental, quick-service food, auto service, and personal care are built around daily habits. People cut wants before needs. That makes income steadier and easier to support in a cautious market. Recent retail market reports show this split clearly. National retail vacancy stayed fairly stable through late 2025, mostly in the mid-5 percent to high-6 percent range, with necessity-based centers performing better than discretionary locations¹. Leasing slowed in 2025, with longer decision times and more rent pushback, especially from non-essential tenants². Buyers are still active, but they are more careful. They now focus on tenant quality, lease length, and operating costs more than rent growth³. What retail owners should focus on right now • Daily-needs tenants reduce risk. Properties with grocery, medical, pharmacy, and quick-service food see more stable rent and fewer concession requests. That helps protect sale price and lender support in slower markets¹. • Grocery-anchored centers sell faster. Buyers still want these assets because traffic is predictable and costs are easier to pass through. These deals tend to fall apart less often³. • Discretionary retail carries pricing risk. Properties tied to optional spending face longer vacancies, rent resistance at renewal, and wider gaps between buyer and seller pricing. Waiting too long to adjust can hurt value, not just cash flow². One thing is becoming clear in early 2026. The market is not pricing retail as one category anymore. It is pricing risk. Two properties with the same income can be worth very different amounts based on tenant mix, lease terms, and rising expenses. Owners who understand this protect equity. Others only see the gap after a buyer or lender points it out. The takeaway is simple. Retail real estate in 2026 is about quality, not hype. Stable income matters. Lease terms matter. Tenant mix matters. Insurance and operating costs matter. Owners who match strategy to how their tenants actually perform stay in control. Owners who rely on old assumptions end up reacting. If you want a clear, property-specific review of how buyers and lenders would view your retail asset today, I can prepare a short market positioning summary. No templates. No guesses. Just how your property would really trade in this market. Ask yourself this. Is your property built around spending people can delay, or spending they rely on every week? #RetailRealEstate2026 #RetailMarketOutlook #EssentialServicesRetail #GroceryAnchoredRetailCenters #DiscretionaryRetailProperties
By Marc Perlof January 30, 2026
Smoothie King plots 90-plus new openings for 2026 The world’s largest smoothie franchise isn’t planning on slowing down its growth after a strong 2025.  Smoothie King says it plans to open more than 90 new store openings in 2026, in addition to launching a targeted franchisee incentive program spanning several key states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and more. Through the program, Smoothie King says it is offering financial incentives to “growth-minded franchisees,” designed to accelerate brand awareness and density in these markets...
By Marc Perlof January 26, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy January 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. 2026 is shaping up to be a year where retail property owners need to pay attention. Not to fear. Not to headlines. To real signals in the market. There is more global and domestic uncertainty right now. Conflicts overseas, trade tension, higher government debt, and political changes in the U.S. all affect interest rates, insurance markets, and investor behavior. This does not mean panic. It means owners need clear, reliable information. Here is where the retail market stands today. Local retail remained steady through late 2025. In Los Angeles County, vacancy ranged from about 5.6 to 6.9 percent in the second half of the year¹²³. That tells us demand is still healthy, even as some tenants adjust space needs or renew leases at new rent levels. Leasing activity slowed in some areas. Spaces are taking longer to fill, and asking rents softened slightly as owners and tenants reset pricing². This is a normal market adjustment, not a collapse. On the investment side, commercial real estate transactions increased nationally through mid 2025. Both the number of deals and total dollar volume rose, showing capital is still moving⁵. Buyers are active when pricing reflects today’s risks and returns. This is exactly what I am seeing in live pricing discussions and negotiations right now. Insurance remains one of the biggest issues for retail owners. Property insurance markets became more stable in 2025, and rate increases slowed in some areas. However, insurers are still selective. Coverage terms matter more than ever, especially for properties exposed to wildfire or coastal risk⁴. Insurance costs directly affect net income, lease negotiations, and buyer interest. Retail Outlook for Q1 and Q2 2026 In early 2026, the retail market is likely to stay steady but measured. Vacancy is expected to remain near current levels. Leasing will be deliberate, not rushed. Rents should hold close to where they ended in 2025 as owners and tenants continue to agree on realistic pricing. Capital will remain active for properties with solid income, strong tenant credit, and durable lease terms. Buyers are selective, but they are still moving forward when risk and return are properly aligned. Insurance markets will stay selective in the first half of 2026. Owners need to plan renewals carefully and understand how insurance affects operating costs, tenant negotiations, and future sale value. Here is a simple retail risk check for 2026: • Local vacancy around 6 percent, stable but uneven by location¹ • Leasing takes longer than peak years, making pricing discipline critical² • Capital remains active, but underwriting is conservative⁵ • Insurance coverage is improving in some areas, but terms still matter⁴ Not all retail performs the same. Discretionary-driven destinations like lifestyle centers, nightlife districts, and tourist-focused shopping streets feel more pressure when consumer spending slows. Retail that serves daily needs and essential services tends to perform better during uncertain cycles. The best strategy now is disciplined and data-driven. Focus on tenant credit strength. Protect lease term and income stability. Price based on real market data. Understand insurance risk clearly. This is how value is protected in changing markets. I help retail property owners position assets based on real tenant behavior and real buyer demand. Not headlines. Call or DM me if you want a clear view of how your retail property should be positioned for 2026. How will you adjust your leasing or investment strategy this year based on what the market is actually telling us? #RetailRealEstate #LosAngelesCRE #CommercialRealEstateOutlook #RetailInvestment #CRE2026 #MarcRetailGuy
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