Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 8, 2024
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A target store with a stop sign in front of it

Target to open 300 stores over next decade

 

Target Corp. reported fourth-quarter sales and earnings above Street expectations amid lower markdowns and improved in-stocks, but warned of sluggish sales for the current year. Separately, the retailer said it will launch a paid membership program, called Target Circle 360, in April. The program, announced at Target's investor day,  will include unlimited free same-day delivery for orders over $35 in as little as one hour and two free-day shipping, along with other perks. 


A fast food restaurant with a blue roof and blue awnings

Regional Dutch Bros Coffee Chain Brews Up National Expansion

 

When Dutch Bros debuted its first coffee shop last month in California's Orange County, throngs of people were waiting. Some had arrived the night before, and others traveled from as far as Arizona for the grand opening that morning. The line to get served "stretched for more than a mile," Christine Barone, the chain's CEO, said during the company's call to discuss its fourth-quarter earnings.


A restaurant with a sign that says `` order here ''.

Founders Table Forges Growth Plan for Collection of Premium Fast Casuals

 

Founders Table Restaurant Group comprises concepts created by operators who never let go of their curiosity. Chopt cofounders Tony Shure and Colin McCabe wondered why salad couldn’t be a side dish. Brothers Liam and Oliver Kremer wanted to know why they couldn’t find a decent mission-style burrito in New York, which led to Dos Toros. FIELDTRIP founder and James Beard Award-winning chef JJ Johnson had a vision to bring healthy rice bowls to Harlem when no one else did. 


The front of a foot locker store in washington heights

Foot Locker in Q4 loss; to unveil store of the future, revamp existing stores


Foot Locker ended its fiscal year on a slightly downbeat note, reporting a loss for the fourth quarter and issuing weak guidance. Despite the loss, the athletic shoe and apparel retailer still beat analysts’ expectations. But it warned that it would not meet the  profitability goal — to reach an EBIT margin of 8.5% to 9% by 2028 — it disclosed at its March 2023 Investor Day on time 


Cars are parked in front of a ross dress for less store

Ross Stores to open 90 new stores in 2024


Ross Stores easily topped expectations for its fourth quarter, but warned that housing, food and gasoline costs continue to put pressure on its customers. In a statement, CEO Barbara Rentler cited the “sustained” sales momentum that began in its second quarter and continued through the holiday season, but cautioned there remains “ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environments.” 


A club sandwich is stacked on top of each other on a plate on a table.

McAlister’s Cracks $1 Billion, but Best is Yet to Come


For the first time in company history, McAlister’s surpassed $1 billion in sales in 2023, fulfilling a prediction the chain tracked for a few years now. It’s a big number, but chief brand officer Mike Freeman says the accomplishment boils down to a handful of key pillars. The first is decision-making and leading with the guest experience. The second is legacy franchise ownership and brand leadership working harmoniously to drive the company forward. 


A fried chicken sandwich with lettuce , tomato , onions and french fries on a plate.

Roots Chicken Shak Unveils a Unique Path to Expanding Beyond Food Halls


Tom Foley typically doesn’t eat fried food. Yet, during a menu tasting for chef Tiffany Derry’s duck-fat fried chicken concept Roots Chicken Shak, Foley took one bite of the Big Bird sandwich, “and I didn’t stop. I finished it,” he recalls. “And then Tiffany comes out with a Spicy Bird, the spicy version of it. I took a bite and finished it. At one point she looks at me, because we still have chicken wings and tenders to go through, and Tiffany goes, ‘you know this is a tasting, right?’ I’m not so sure if that’s how you’re supposed to have a tasting.”


An artist 's impression of a grocery store with a green ceiling.

Whole Foods to roll out small-format store concept — here’s what it will look like


Whole Foods Market is going small with a new concept for dense metro areas.The natural and organic foods grocer is launching a “quick-shop” store format that’s designed to provide customers in urban neighborhoods a quick and convenient shopping experience. Dubbed “Whole Foods Market Daily Shop,” the stores will range between 7,000 sq. ft. to 14,000 sq. ft., which is about a quarter to half the footprint of an average 40,000-sq.-ft. Whole Foods location. 


A grocery outlet is now open in a shopping center.

Grocery Outlet to open 15 - 20 stores in 2024; 100 approved sites for 2025 and 2026


Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is expanding its reach.The extreme discount grocer opened 13 new stores during its fourth quarter, including its first location in Ohio, for a total of 468 stores in nine states. It plans to open 15 to 20 new stores in 2024.


A red building with the word appetizers on it

Ribs With Your Pancakes? Applebee’s and IHOP Placed Under One Roof As Eateries Test Formats


Dine Brands Global is looking to develop more dual-branded restaurants, blending some of its new Applebee’s and IHOP restaurants into one eatery under the same roof to save money on real estate and supplies while driving more sales. Competitors including Outback Steakhouse and the Cheesecake Factory are also looking for property efficiencies. They are planning expansions and remodeling restaurants to capitalize on steady restaurant spending of the past three years after dining room shutdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic’s early months. 


An artist 's impression of a burger king restaurant

Church’s Road Back Began with Finding Itself Again


This compass—“who we are”—has served as the central theme in the 72-year-old brand’s turnaround since Guith, a former GoTo Foods (then Focus Brands) executive, arrived in early August 2022. Church’s was founded in 1952 in San Antonio, Texas, by George W. Church. It was a walk-up stand located a block south of the Alamo that sold two pieces of chicken and a roll for 49 cents. It began as “Church’s Fried Chicken-To-Go.” 


A dutch bros store with a truck parked in front of it.

Dutch Bros to open 150 to 165 shops in 2024; moving some corporate jobs to Phoenix


Dutch Bros ended the year on an upbeat note as it continues to drive new store growth. The fast-growing drive-thru coffee chain’s total revenue rose 25.9% to $254.1 million in the fourth quarter (ended Dec. 31). For the full year, total revenue grew 30.7% to $965.8 million.


By Marc Perlof March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....
By Marc Perlof March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates
By Marc Perlof March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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