Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • September 25, 2026
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The 10-year Treasury yield just hit 5% for the first time since 2007 — is a 1970s-style ‘stagflation’ on the return?

For years, a 5% yield on the Treasury
looked like a relic from another interest-rate era—where borrowers faced soaring loan rates. Now it's back, capping a six-year surge from pandemic-era lows near 0.5%. The benchmark yield crossed 5% this month for the first time since 2007, but this appears different than the eve of the Great Recession: the Fed is staring down a lose-lose situation combining high inflation and weak economic growth, a catch 22 that economists termed "stagflation" in the 1970s and long feared through the 10-year's climb upward since the pandemic...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

The U.S. economy before and after the Iran war, in five charts

On Feb. 27, the day before the United States and Israel attacked Iran, the American economy was on a steady course to lower inflation and attain greater buying power. Gas was cheap and interest rates were coming down.

Today, none of those things are true anymore. When it comes to the U.S. economy, there’s before the Iran war — and since.

Despite assurances from President Donald Trump as early as March that the war would prove a “short-term excursion,” the conflict is about to round its seventh month. On Tuesday, Trump suggested that a deal could arrive after November’s midterm elections...

An elevated outdoor view of a modern shopping mall promenade with manicured greenery, palm trees, and pedestrians.

Starbucks to Close 250 North America Locations This Week

Starbucks announced Thursday it’s closing about 250 North America locations later this week, or roughly 1 percent of the company’s 18,000-plus store portfolio. Chief operating officer Mike Grams, who was promoted to the role in June 2025 after joining the company from Taco Bell that January, said Starbucks “carefully reviewed” locations and identified restaurants “we do not believe we can consistently deliver the experience we want for customers and partners or where we don’t see a path to acceptable financial performance...”


The American flag waves against a bright blue sky between towering glass skyscrapers, viewed from a low angle.

Longer Approval Timelines Put Retail Development Returns At Risk


Retail development has transitioned from a more forgiving period immediately following the pandemic, when low interest rates and discount rates supported project assumptions, even if a deal took years to move from planning to completion, according to Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

"That was an environment where, if you did a pro forma coming out of COVID, everything worked," Green said during a policy session at ICSC@Western...

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Toys R Us Plans 120 Holiday Stores in Retail Push

Toys R Us is preparing a major temporary store expansion for the holiday season. Bisnow reports the retailer plans to open 120 standalone pop-up locations, compared with 36 permanent stores across 22 states. The move would temporarily quadruple the brand’s standalone footprint as it continues rebuilding its physical retail presence...




The main entrance of the NuHAA building, featuring a modern glass and stone facade, at sunset.

Chili's parent heats up new US development plans

Chili's parent Brinker International has turned up the heat on its planned U.S. expansion with new stores and renovating existing ones.


The company based in the Dallas area has more than 1,600 Chili's and Maggiano's Little Italy restaurants. Brinker is setting its sights on revamping its real estate to reflect what has been seen as a comeback for the 1980s-era restaurant chain, which has been riding a social media wave of fans touting their hamburgers, chicken crispers, appetizers and margaritas...


Major Wendy’s operator seeks Chapter 11 protection


One of Wendy’s largest U.S. franchisees has filed for Chapter 11 after already closing roughly 60 restaurants amid the fast-food chain’s struggles.


Grand Rapids, Michigan-based Meritage Hospitality Group has sought voluntary protection in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Michigan. It “took this step to strengthen its balance sheet and establish a sustainable capital structure that positions Meritage for long-term success,” the company said in a statement.


Meritage currently operates 314 Wendy’s locations, one Bojangles location and five independently branded restaurant concepts across 15 states. The company went to court Thursday and blamed its financial woes in part on challenges facing Wendy’s franchise network...


Placer.ai: Store visits surge at these retailers...

Retailers that center value and discovery are among those that have seen store visits increase the most in the past year.

That’s according to retail data firm Placer.ai’s Placer 100 Retail Index, which analyzed shopping patterns over the past year. From August 2025 to July 2026, Five Below (17.1%), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (17.0%), Bass Pro Shops (16.5%), Hobby Lobby (16.0%) and Ross Dress for Less (15.1%) saw the largest increases in overall store visits compared to the year prior.

Boot Barn, Citi Trends and Barnes & Noble were also among the top gainers of visits. On a per store basis, Staples (14.8%), Hobby Lobby (14.1%) and Citi Trends (12.2%) were the top gainers...



America’s Top 200 Restaurant Groups

It’s easy to compartmentalize restaurant concepts into two buckets: chain or independent. But in this diverse, creative, and ever-evolving industry, the reality isn’t so binary.

In fact, this country is rife with restaurant companies making, in some cases, hundreds of millions of dollars by building independent restaurants. Such multi-concept portfolios have sprung up in all nooks and crannies of this country; sure, more than 10% of the Top 200 Restaurant Groups are based in New York City, but there are also groups out of Ashland, New Hampshire; Lima, Ohio; and Beaverton, Oregon...

By Marc Perlof • November 9, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 November 9, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Waiting is not a neutral decision. Every month an ownership group delays an important decision, the property's income, risk, financing, marketability, or value can change. The true cost of waiting usually becomes clear only after the opportunity has passed. Whether the property has one owner or several, delaying an important decision should be evaluated like any other investment choice because the financial consequences continue to change over time. Last week, I discussed why multiple owners often struggle to make timely decisions. This week, let's look at what that delay can actually cost. Why Do Owners Keep Waiting? Most ownership groups do not delay because they are careless. They delay because they believe waiting reduces risk. Some are waiting for interest rates to improve. Others are waiting for property values to increase. Some want to wait until a tenant renews. Others simply cannot reach an agreement. Each reason may sound reasonable on its own. The problem is that the property continues to change while ownership waits. What Changes While You Wait? Retail properties are not static investments. Leases continue moving toward expiration. Buildings continue to age. Deferred maintenance becomes more expensive. Financing markets change. Buyer demand shifts. Elections may also lead to changes in tax policy, regulations, public spending, or development rules that affect ownership decisions. Tenants open, close, expand, and relocate. Every month of delay changes the investment, even if nothing appears different from the street. The important question is not whether waiting changes the property. It almost always does. The important question is whether those changes improve or weaken your financial position. How Can Waiting Reduce Property Value? Many owners assume the property's value will eventually increase enough to offset the cost of waiting. Sometimes that happens. Sometimes it does not. For example, waiting another year may result in: A major lease moving closer to expiration. Higher repair or replacement costs. Less favorable financing. Increased vacancy risk. Lower buyer confidence. Missed redevelopment or repositioning opportunities. A higher property value does not automatically produce a better investment result if income falls, expenses rise, or risk increases along the way. The goal is to evaluate the entire financial picture, not just the future sale price. What Should Ownership Be Measuring? Instead of asking, "Should we wait?" Ask questions such as: What is the financial cost of waiting six months? What could improve during that time? What could become worse? What assumptions are we making? What evidence supports those assumptions? Those questions move the discussion away from opinions and toward measurable investment decisions. Real Deal Insight With the same ownership group mentioned in last week’s blog, one of the main questions was whether waiting would improve the financial result. One sibling believed more time could lead to a higher property value, while another was concerned about what could happen to the property during that waiting period. I helped the family compare the potential benefit of holding against projected income, lease rollover, future capital needs, holding costs, and the risks of changing market conditions. The question was not simply whether the property might be worth more later. It was whether waiting was expected to produce a better overall financial result after considering what could change along the way. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Before deciding to wait, calculate what waiting is expected to cost and what it is expected to produce. Review upcoming lease expirations, projected capital improvements, financing, operating expenses, tenant stability, and market conditions. Then compare those factors against the potential benefits of delaying the decision. Waiting should be an intentional investment strategy, not simply the result of uncertainty or disagreement. Owner Self Assessment If your ownership group decides to wait another year before making a major property decision, can you clearly explain why waiting is expected to produce a better financial outcome? Final Takeaway Waiting is not free. Every delay has potential financial consequences that should be measured before the ownership group decides to postpone an important decision. Next week, in "When Multiple Owners Disagree: How Family and Business Partners Can Move Forward," I'll discuss why ownership groups reach deadlocks and how a structured decision making process can help move important property decisions forward. If your ownership group is deciding whether to hold, lease, refinance, improve, or sell, 1031 exchange, I can help you compare the financial consequences of acting now versus waiting before you commit to either path. Is your ownership group waiting because the numbers support it, or simply because no one is ready to decide? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #PropertyOwners #FamilyPartnership #BusinessPartners #FamilyOffice #InvestmentProperty #ShoppingCenters #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof • November 6, 2026
CVS Health to split off its retail pharmacy business CVS Health is planning one of the largest corporate separations in history as it looks to separate its retail pharmacy operations from its insurance and pharmacy benefits business. The retail and healthcare giant, whose total revenues increased to a record high of $402.1 billion in 2025, intends to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies, with the split expected to be completed by the first half of 2028. The decision follows a “comprehensive strategic review by the CVS Health board,” the company said...
By Marc Perlof • November 2, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 November 2, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. One of the biggest risks to a retail property is not always one owner making a bad decision. It is multiple owners failing to make a decision at all. When family members, business partners, or other co-owners delay action, the cost can show up through lost income, higher expenses, missed opportunities, weaker financing, or a lower sale price. Retail properties are often owned by siblings, spouses, business partners, LLC members, family offices, trusts, or investment groups. Each owner may have a different financial goal, timeline, and tolerance for risk. Disagreement is normal. The larger problem is having no clear process for turning disagreement into a decision. Even if you own the property by yourself today, these same decisions often become the responsibility of a spouse, children, successor trustee, or other heirs in the future. A clear decision process today can help prevent confusion later. What Do Multiple Owners Commonly Miss? Many ownership groups assume waiting is the safest choice when they cannot agree. They delay a lease decision, postpone repairs, wait to refinance, or hold off on selling until everyone feels comfortable. That may reduce conflict in the moment, but it does not stop the property from changing. Leases move closer to expiration. Deferred maintenance grows. Financing terms and buyer demand can change. Waiting may feel neutral, but its financial effect rarely is. Good properties are often held back by poor decision processes, not poor real estate. The issue becomes harder when each owner defines success differently. One partner may want monthly income. Another may want to sell and reinvest. One sibling may want to keep the property because it has been in the family for decades, while another may need cash for retirement or other obligations. None of these goals are automatically wrong. The ownership group still needs to decide which goal should guide the property’s current strategy. Why Do Ownership Groups Delay Important Decisions? Experience does not remove emotion, fear, or personal pressure. An owner may understand leasing and property values but still resist a sale because the property belonged to a parent. Another may reject a reasonable lease because the proposed rent is below what the space achieved years earlier. Another common reason for delay is the belief that retail property values will continue increasing over time. Many properties have appreciated over long periods, but that does not automatically make waiting the best financial decision. While ownership waits, leases age, capital needs grow, financing changes, and buyer demand shifts. A property’s future value depends on much more than appreciation alone. The better question is not, “Will this property be worth more someday?” It is, “Will waiting create a better overall financial result than acting today?” Owners may also delay because they want to avoid regret. They worry that selling now could mean missing a higher price later, or that completing an improvement could waste money. That fear can cause repeated delays while income, expenses, tenant risk, and market conditions continue to change. The goal is not to make a perfect decision. It is to make the best available decision based on the property’s current income, condition, financing, leases, marketability, and ownership objectives. How Can Indecision Affect Property Value? Property value is tied closely to income, risk, and buyer confidence. If ownership delays a lease renewal, buyers may underwrite more vacancy risk. If repairs are postponed, buyers may reduce pricing for future capital costs. If owners cannot agree on a sale strategy, the property may remain exposed to tenant rollover, changing financing conditions, or new competition. Indecision can also weaken negotiations. A tenant may recognize that the owners are not aligned. A buyer may question whether the group can approve terms, respond to due diligence, or close on schedule. A lender may require clear authority before moving forward with refinancing. The cost may not appear as one large loss. It often shows up through additional vacancy, higher repair costs, reduced leverage, lost rent, or a weaker offer. Over time, those smaller consequences can materially reduce value. What Should the Ownership Group Decide First? The first decision is not whether to sell, refinance, lease, improve, or hold. It is agreeing on the ownership group’s primary objective. Is the priority current cash flow, long term appreciation, preserving the property for the next generation, reducing risk, or preparing for a sale within a defined period? Once that objective is clear, the group can compare each option using the same standard. A lease proposal can be measured by its effect on NOI, flexibility, and value. A capital improvement can be evaluated based on cost, expected rent, tenant demand, and sale impact. A sale can be reviewed based on net proceeds, taxes, timing, and reinvestment options. Without a shared objective, every discussion becomes a debate over personal preferences. With a shared objective, the group can focus on what best supports the investment. Real Deal Insight I recently advised a family that owned a retail property through multiple siblings. One wanted to sell, another wanted to continue collecting income, and another wanted to wait because they believed the property’s value would continue increasing. Before discussing pricing or marketing, I helped the ownership group compare the financial consequences of each option, including projected income, future capital needs, lease rollover, holding costs, and the risks of delay. Once everyone reviewed the same information, the discussion shifted from individual opinions to the property’s investment objectives. That allowed the group to make an informed decision based on facts instead of assumptions. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners If your property has multiple owners, start by defining the group’s main investment objective and expected holding period. Each owner should understand whether the current goal is income, growth, preservation, redevelopment, refinancing, or sale. Then decide how major property decisions will be reviewed. The group should know who gathers the information, who has authority, what requires a vote, and how long the group has to respond. Governance and legal issues should be reviewed with the appropriate attorney, CPA, or other licensed advisor. The goal is not more meetings. It is a process that allows the group to decide before delay limits the available options. Owner Self-Assessment If your ownership group had to decide today whether to renew a major tenant, complete a capital improvement, refinance, or sell, would every owner agree on the property’s main objective and how the decision should be made? Final Takeaway Multiple owners do not need to agree on everything, but they need a clear process for making decisions before delay reduces income, options, or value. In next week’s blog, “The Hidden Cost of Waiting: How Decision Delays Reduce Property Value,” I will explain how indecision can affect lease negotiations, repairs, financing, buyer interest, and property value. If your retail property has multiple owners, I can help your group compare the financial impact of holding, leasing, improving, refinancing, or selling before indecision limits the available choices. The quality of a retail property’s decisions often depends less on the property itself and more on the process the owners use to make those decisions. Is your ownership group protecting the property by waiting, or is waiting quietly becoming the most expensive decision? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #PropertyOwners #FamilyPartnership #BusinessPartners #FamilyOffice #InvestmentProperty #ShoppingCenters #MarcRetailGuy
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