Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap
Marc Perlof • January 16, 2026
Tractor Supply hits store milestone; 100 new locations slated for 2026
Tractor Supply Company has already kicked off its 2026 expansion plans.
The nation’s largest rural lifestyle retailer opened its 2,400th location with a new store in Aiken, S.C., which marks one of our stores set to open in the first two weeks of the year. Tractor Supply said it plans to open 100 new locations by the end of the year...
Aldi plans 180 new stores this year, adding to aggressive US expansion
Aldi plans to open more than 180 new stores by the end of this year as the German discount grocer continues aggressive expansion following a record number of U.S. openings last year.

On Monday, the company announced a new growth phase that will include entering Colorado and Maine, opening three new distribution centers and continuing a Southeast expansion as part of a previously announced $9 billion growth initiative...
Retail Sector Strength Surges in 2025
According to Globe St, the retail sector finished 2025 with its best fundamentals in recent years, buoyed by record-breaking holiday consumer activity and limited new retail supply. Crexi’s December CRE report highlights a surge in consumer spending from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, with over 202.9M shoppers and a Cyber Monday online sales record of $14.25B—up 7.1% year-over-year. Black Friday sales also saw robust 9.1% growth, reaching $11.8B...
Saks Global files for Chapter 11 with vow to evaluate its store footprint
It was a blockbuster $2.7 billion merger that united some of the most iconic names in luxury retail under one roof, creating a brick-and-mortar luxury giant. But just over a year later, the deal has turned sour and landed the consolidated company in bankruptcy court, with plans to evaluate its brick-and-mortar footprint...
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy January 12, 2026 If you own commercial real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A rate cut by the Federal Reserve and even the prospect of a new Fed Chair are topics of increasing discussion. When they hear it, many commercial property owners believe that borrowing costs will decrease and property values will increase. That is just partially accurate. You need to understand the distinction between the fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury to understand the true effect of interest rates on commercial real estate. One short-term rate that the Federal Reserve controls is the fed funds rate. Short-term loans, credit cards, and bank lending are all impacted. The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond is a market rate. It reflects global demand for safe assets, government debt levels, and long-term inflation expectations. Interest rates and commercial real estate cap rates are significantly more correlated with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond than with the fed funds rate. Even as markets discuss potential rate decreases, the 10-year Treasury yield is currently in the low to mid-4 percent area based on data from late 2025 and early 2026¹. That gives us some crucial information. Long-term rates are not automatically lowered by a Federal Reserve rate cut. Why is this important for owners of commercial real estate? Because long-term rates, not headlines, determine cap rates. If the Fed lowers rates in response to a real economic slowdown and inflation remains under control, the 10-year Treasury yield may decline and support values. If the cut is perceived as premature or driven by political pressure, long-term rates may remain high or even rise, keeping cap rates elevated. Owners who price assets assuming that fed rate cuts automatically increase values risk chasing the market down. Buyers are underwriting off the 10-year Treasury, not press releases. Understanding this gap is often the difference between trading at market pricing and sitting unsold. The market has also been confused by recent Fed actions. To stabilize deposits and reduce stress, the Fed added liquidity to the banking system. This was not quantitative easing. It was not money printing. It was temporary support. As a result, it helped prevent panic but did not guarantee cheaper long-term financing for property owners². Key takeaways supported by non-fiction research The 10-year Treasury yield is set by markets, not by Fed announcements alone³ Long-term rates reflect inflation expectations and Treasury supply, not just policy rates¹ Commercial real estate cap rates and interest rates tend to move with the 10-year, not the fed funds rate³ Here are a few verified data points to ground this discussion. As of Q4 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield traded in a roughly 4.0 to 4.5 percent range according to U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve data¹. Core inflation measures in late 2025 remained above the Fed’s 2 percent target, generally in the mid-2 percent range depending on the index and reporting month, which helps explain why long-term rates remain sticky². Commercial and commercial mortgage pricing continues to be quoted at a spread over the 10-year Treasury, reinforcing its importance for cap rates and interest rates³. For commercial real estate owners, the lesson is simple. Do not base decisions on fed funds headlines alone. Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, debt spreads, and lender behavior. That is where real pricing and value signals come from. If you own commercial real estate and are deciding whether to sell, refinance, or hold, now is the time to look past the noise and focus on how long-term rates are actually behaving. Reach out if you want a pricing or exit strategy built around where long-term rates are, not where headlines say they should be. If the Fed cuts rates but the 10-year Treasury stays high, how does that change your pricing expectations and exit strategy? #CommercialRealEstate #InterestRates #CapRates #CommercialRealEstate #MarketInsight
Net Lease Cap Rates Stabilize as Market Focus Shifts to Risk Over Rates The net lease market barely budged in Q4, but beneath the surface, investors are repricing around risk—not the Fed. Cap rates hold steady: In Q4, single-tenant net lease cap rates rose just one bp to 6.81%. Retail dipped to 6.55%, office climbed to 8.00%, and industrial held at 7.20%. Despite Fed rate cuts, pricing remained steady, signaling a break from short-term policy influence...
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy January 5, 2026 If you own commercial real estate, here’s what just changed for you. In 2026, the SBA quietly made a significant change that affects who can purchase your property and how transactions are completed. Access to SBA 504 loans (owner user loans) is increased by revised citizenship and residence requirements introduced in the SBA SOP 50 10 8 update. This is significant since the market for small and mid-sized commercial assets is mostly driven by SBA financing. This is the overall view. More purchasers are now eligible. Under the updated SBA 504 rules, buyers can now include up to 5 percent ownership by certain foreign nationals or conditional permanent residents. Many otherwise strong buyers were left out prior to this shift. A larger group of eligible owner-users can now apply under the SBA 504 foreign ownership eligibility regulations. Clarity is another benefit of this move. The SBA 504 rules use the IRS definition of a principal residence. As a result, there is less misunderstanding, underwriting happens quicker, and there is less chance of transactions collapsing at the end of the process. It's easy to understand why commercial property owners care about this. Pricing is determined by financing. Competition increases as more purchasers are eligible. Better terminology and stronger values are supported by this. More importantly, clearer rules mean fewer surprises in escrow. Less friction. Fewer price changes. Fewer broken deals due to financing issues discovered too late. These changes are already influencing how I’m structuring pricing guidance, buyer targeting, and deal timelines for commercial property owners planning 2026 exits. Here is what commercial property owners should understand right now. SBA 504 loans typically require only about 10 percent down from the buyer, compared to 25 percent to 35 percent for conventional bank loans, based on SBA program guidance as of 2024¹. The SBA 504 program supports owner-occupied properties where the operating business occupies at least 51 percent of the space for existing buildings or 60 percent for new construction, per SBA rules². SBA 504 loans can finance projects up to approximately $5 million per loan, with higher limits for certain public policy goals, according to SBA program documentation³. These rules apply to all SBA 504 applications approved on or after January 1, 2026. That means deals being planned today for 2026 closings should already be structured with these changes in mind. Key takeaways supported by SBA guidance. Expanded buyer eligibility increases the pool of qualified commercial owner-users¹. Clearer residency definitions reduce underwriting friction and deal risk². SBA 504 loans remain one of the most equity-efficient tools for owner-user commercial real estate buyers³. If you own commercial real estate and are thinking about selling, refinancing, or planning a 2026 exit, this update directly affects your strategy. Buyer demand is not just about the market. It is about who can get loans and on what terms. If you want to understand how these SBA changes affect your buyer pool, pricing range, or timing for a 2026 sale, reach out. With these new SBA 504 loan changes expanding eligibility, how might a larger and better-capitalized buyer pool change the value of your commercial property? #RetailRealEstate #SBA504 #CommercialRealEstate #RetailPropertyOwners #InvestmentSales
