Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap
Marc Perlof • January 23, 2026
Circana: Retail closed 2025 with 2% dollar growth, flat unit demand
Total retail spending held steady once again in December as consumers continued to spend, but they also made it clear —through reduced demand — that they have limitations.

That's one of the insights of a new study from Circana, which revealed that, In the five weeks ending Jan. 3, 2026, U.S. retail sales revenue was flat across food, consumer packaged goods and discretionary product segments. Unit demand declined 1% during the five weeks of December compared to the same time in 2024...
Store brand sales hit new record highs in revenue and unit volume
Private label sales continue to outperform national brands in the United States.
Sales of store brands increased slightly more than $9 billion to a record $282.8 billion in all outlets last year compared to 2024, according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association’s new Circana Unify+ data...
Retail Rents Shift Through Quiet Deal Changes
Globe St says that retail rents have begun to climb in practical terms even when advertised base rent per PSF remains stable. Instead of simply increasing face rents, landlords are adjusting deal structures to pass more buildout responsibilities and costs to tenants. This shift, described as “shadow rent growth,” is most visible in high-demand A-quality suburban centers, where leasing competition remains intense...
13 Restaurants Facing Potential Bankruptcy and Closure in 2026
Throughout 2025, Americans voiced concerns about affordability, yet costs kept climbing. Now, diners face difficult decisions about their eating-out budgets.
When restaurant spending gets squeezed, businesses feel the impact. According to Finance Bizz, the following 13 chains face serious bankruptcy risks or potential closures in 2026.
Southeastern Grocers rebrands as The Winn-Dixie Company
A century-old regional grocery company has started a new chapter.
Southeastern Grocers on Jan. 21 officially became The Winn-Dixie Company, uniting its organization and its stores under one banner. The move, first announced in October, is part of a renewed focus on the company’s home state of Florida...
At Michaels, taking Party City and Joann’s market share was priority No. 1
Almost a year into David Boone’s tenure as CEO, the executive is giving a glimpse into Michaels’ future in a post-Party City and Joann world.
“When [CFO Perry Pericleous] and I got here, as we worked on the strategy, the first thing that we concluded was there was tremendous disruption in the marketplace with the exit of Joann Fabric and the exit of Party City — and that job one was to go after that,” Boone said at the ICR Conference last week. “In the last six-seven months, we have introduced a Party Shop by Michaels in every single store in our fleet, and we’ve introduced the Knit & Sew Shop in every single store in our fleet...”
Denny's completes $620M sale following shareholder OK
Denny’s stock is officially off the market.
The diner chain on Friday completed its sale to a group consisting of TriArtisan Capital Advisors, franchisee Yadav Enterprises and Treville Capital Group, making it a privately held company again for the first time since 1997...
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 July 20, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Last week, we looked at why retail properties sit on the market. The main point was simple. Properties usually sit when pricing, positioning, buyer targeting, or risk is not aligned with the market. This week, we are going deeper into the buyer side: how do buyers actually evaluate your retail property? Most sellers think buyers only start with price. They do not. For most retail investment properties, buyers first look at the income. Then they test how safe, durable, and financeable that income really is. That is where risk comes in. A buyer may like the Net Operating Income (NOI) at first glance, but if the leases are short, the tenants are weak, expenses are unclear, or future repairs are likely, the buyer will adjust their return requirement and price. That is why understanding buyer underwriting is so important. Buyers Start with Income, Then Adjust for Risk For most retail investment properties, buyers begin with income. They want to know the current rent, current NOI, whether tenants are paying on time, whether expenses are reimbursed, whether rent increases exist, whether there are vacancies, and whether the rent is above or below market. But income alone is not enough. Buyers want to know how reliable that income is. The cleaner and more consistent the income, the easier it is for buyers to underwrite. The messier or riskier the income, the more conservative buyers become. Buyers Care About Income Quality Not all NOI is equal. A property with $300,000 of NOI from strong tenants, long leases, annual increases, and clean reimbursements is very different from a property with $300,000 of NOI from short term tenants, unclear expense payments, and flat rents. Same NOI. Different quality. Different value. Buyers want to know if the income will last. If they think the income may drop after closing, they may lower their price. Lease Term Matters Lease term is one of the biggest drivers of retail pricing. A buyer will view a 15 year lease very differently from a 2 year lease. Longer lease term usually creates more income certainty. Shorter lease term usually creates more risk. That does not mean short term leases are always bad. Sometimes short term leases create upside if rents are below market. But buyers need to believe the upside is real. If the tenant is weak, the space is hard to lease, or the rent is already above market, short lease term can hurt value. Tenant Quality Matters Retail buyers study the tenant. They want to know whether the tenant is national, regional, franchise, or local. They also want to know whether there is a corporate guarantee, personal guarantee, strong payment history, and healthy business operation. For a single tenant net lease (STNL) property, tenant quality can drive the entire valuation. For a strip center or shopping center, tenant quality affects stability, financing, and buyer confidence. A strong tenant lowers perceived risk. A weak tenant increases perceived risk. Lease Structure Can Change the Price Buyers do not just read the rent amount. They read the lease. Important lease terms include rent increases, option periods, reimbursement language, maintenance obligations, assignment rights, termination rights, cotenancy clauses, exclusive use clauses, Common Area Maintenance (CAM) language, landlord repair obligations, and guaranty language. A lease may look strong on the rent roll, but become weaker once the buyer reviews the actual document. That is where many deals get repriced. Buyers Look at Future Costs Buyers do not only care about today’s income. They care about tomorrow’s expenses. They will review roof life, HVAC systems, parking lot condition, plumbing, electrical, signage, ADA issues, environmental concerns, tenant improvement exposure, leasing commissions, and capital reserves. If a buyer sees $300,000 of near-term repairs, that affects value. Even if the buyer does not ask for a full dollar for dollar credit, they will account for it in the return they need. Financing Drives Buyer Behavior Many owners underestimate how much financing affects pricing. A buyer may like the property, but the lender still has to approve the loan. Lenders usually focus on tenant strength, lease term, NOI, debt service coverage, property condition, borrower strength, market rents, environmental issues, and vacancy risk. If the lender is nervous, the buyer may need to bring in more cash. That lowers the buyer’s return, which often means the buyer needs a lower price. This is why financing conditions directly affect retail property values. Buyers Compare Your Property to Other Options Your property is not evaluated alone. Buyers compare it to other retail properties, but they also compare it to other places they can put their money. They may look at other net lease deals, shopping centers, multifamily, industrial, private lending, Treasuries, money market returns, or simply keeping cash available until a better opportunity appears. Inside retail, they ask whether they can buy a better tenant, better location, longer or shorter lease, stronger rent growth, cleaner financing, or lower repair risk somewhere else. A buyer does not need to buy your property. They need a reason to choose it over the alternatives. If another option offers a better risk adjusted return with less uncertainty, that becomes competition for your sale. Buyers Underwrite the Exit Smart buyers think about resale before they buy. They ask who will buy the property from them later, what the lease term will be then, what cap rate the market may use, what expenses they will incur when they sell the property, whether the tenant will still be there, and whether future buyers will see the same risks. If the exit feels uncertain, the buyer usually lowers the price. That is especially true for properties with short leases, weak tenants, or limited future buyer demand. A Simple Example Assume a retail property has $250,000 of NOI. If buyers view the income as stable and price it at a 6.00% cap rate, the value is about $4,166,667. If buyers see more risk and require a 6.75% cap rate, the value is about $3,703,704. That is a difference of about $462,963. The NOI did not change. The buyer’s view of risk changed. What Owners Should Prepare Before Selling Before going to market, owners should prepare the rent roll, leases, amendments, tenant payment history, expense statements, NNN reconciliation history, service records, roof and HVAC information, insurance costs (declaration page), property tax information, recent repairs, known capital needs, and a clear explanation of upside. This helps reduce buyer uncertainty. Less uncertainty usually means stronger buyer confidence, and stronger confidence can support stronger pricing. The seller’s job before going to market is to remove as many reasons as possible for buyers to discount the property pricing. Final Thought Buyers do not just buy income. They buy income after adjusting for risk. The better your property looks under buyer underwriting, the stronger your position. The weaker or less organized the property looks, the more buyers will discount, delay, retrade, or walk away. Next week, we will close this series with the decision many owners are asking right now: Should You Sell Now or Wait? If you are thinking about selling, refinancing, or holding your retail property, I can help you review the property the way buyers will underwrite it. That includes income, leases, tenant quality, repairs, financing risk, and likely buyer demand. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvestment #PropertyOwners #MarketUncertainty #BuyerUnderwriting #RetailPricing #CREStrategy #MarcRetailGuy
10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.628% — Data Talk The 10-year yield rose 0.030 percentage point to 4.628% today. The price fell 7/32 to 98 1/32. --Yield is up for two consecutive trading days --Yield is up 0.085 percentage point over the last two trading days --Largest two-day yield gain since Wednesday, July 8, 2026 --Yield is up three of the past four trading days --Today's yield is the second highest this year --Highest yield since Tuesday, May 19, 2026...
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 July 20, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Last week, we looked at why retail properties sit on the market. The main point was simple. Properties usually sit when pricing, positioning, buyer targeting, or risk is not aligned with the market. This week, we are going deeper into the buyer side: how do buyers actually evaluate your retail property? Most sellers think buyers only start with price. They do not. For most retail investment properties, buyers first look at the income. Then they test how safe, durable, and financeable that income really is. That is where risk comes in. A buyer may like the Net Operating Income (NOI) at first glance, but if the leases are short, the tenants are weak, expenses are unclear, or future repairs are likely, the buyer will adjust their return requirement and price. That is why understanding buyer underwriting is so important. Buyers Start with Income, Then Adjust for Risk For most retail investment properties, buyers begin with income. They want to know the current rent, current NOI, whether tenants are paying on time, whether expenses are reimbursed, whether rent increases exist, whether there are vacancies, and whether the rent is above or below market. But income alone is not enough. Buyers want to know how reliable that income is. The cleaner and more consistent the income, the easier it is for buyers to underwrite. The messier or riskier the income, the more conservative buyers become. Buyers Care About Income Quality Not all NOI is equal. A property with $300,000 of NOI from strong tenants, long leases, annual increases, and clean reimbursements is very different from a property with $300,000 of NOI from short term tenants, unclear expense payments, and flat rents. Same NOI. Different quality. Different value. Buyers want to know if the income will last. If they think the income may drop after closing, they may lower their price. Lease Term Matters Lease term is one of the biggest drivers of retail pricing. A buyer will view a 15 year lease very differently from a 2 year lease. Longer lease term usually creates more income certainty. Shorter lease term usually creates more risk. That does not mean short term leases are always bad. Sometimes short term leases create upside if rents are below market. But buyers need to believe the upside is real. If the tenant is weak, the space is hard to lease, or the rent is already above market, short lease term can hurt value. Tenant Quality Matters Retail buyers study the tenant. They want to know whether the tenant is national, regional, franchise, or local. They also want to know whether there is a corporate guarantee, personal guarantee, strong payment history, and healthy business operation. For a single tenant net lease (STNL) property, tenant quality can drive the entire valuation. For a strip center or shopping center, tenant quality affects stability, financing, and buyer confidence. A strong tenant lowers perceived risk. A weak tenant increases perceived risk. Lease Structure Can Change the Price Buyers do not just read the rent amount. They read the lease. Important lease terms include rent increases, option periods, reimbursement language, maintenance obligations, assignment rights, termination rights, cotenancy clauses, exclusive use clauses, Common Area Maintenance (CAM) language, landlord repair obligations, and guaranty language. A lease may look strong on the rent roll, but become weaker once the buyer reviews the actual document. That is where many deals get repriced. Buyers Look at Future Costs Buyers do not only care about today’s income. They care about tomorrow’s expenses. They will review roof life, HVAC systems, parking lot condition, plumbing, electrical, signage, ADA issues, environmental concerns, tenant improvement exposure, leasing commissions, and capital reserves. If a buyer sees $300,000 of near-term repairs, that affects value. Even if the buyer does not ask for a full dollar for dollar credit, they will account for it in the return they need. Financing Drives Buyer Behavior Many owners underestimate how much financing affects pricing. A buyer may like the property, but the lender still has to approve the loan. Lenders usually focus on tenant strength, lease term, NOI, debt service coverage, property condition, borrower strength, market rents, environmental issues, and vacancy risk. If the lender is nervous, the buyer may need to bring in more cash. That lowers the buyer’s return, which often means the buyer needs a lower price. This is why financing conditions directly affect retail property values. Buyers Compare Your Property to Other Options Your property is not evaluated alone. Buyers compare it to other retail properties, but they also compare it to other places they can put their money. They may look at other net lease deals, shopping centers, multifamily, industrial, private lending, Treasuries, money market returns, or simply keeping cash available until a better opportunity appears. Inside retail, they ask whether they can buy a better tenant, better location, longer or shorter lease, stronger rent growth, cleaner financing, or lower repair risk somewhere else. A buyer does not need to buy your property. They need a reason to choose it over the alternatives. If another option offers a better risk adjusted return with less uncertainty, that becomes competition for your sale. Buyers Underwrite the Exit Smart buyers think about resale before they buy. They ask who will buy the property from them later, what the lease term will be then, what cap rate the market may use, what expenses they will incur when they sell the property, whether the tenant will still be there, and whether future buyers will see the same risks. If the exit feels uncertain, the buyer usually lowers the price. That is especially true for properties with short leases, weak tenants, or limited future buyer demand. A Simple Example Assume a retail property has $250,000 of NOI. If buyers view the income as stable and price it at a 6.00% cap rate, the value is about $4,166,667. If buyers see more risk and require a 6.75% cap rate, the value is about $3,703,704. That is a difference of about $462,963. The NOI did not change. The buyer’s view of risk changed. What Owners Should Prepare Before Selling Before going to market, owners should prepare the rent roll, leases, amendments, tenant payment history, expense statements, NNN reconciliation history, service records, roof and HVAC information, insurance costs (declaration page), property tax information, recent repairs, known capital needs, and a clear explanation of upside. This helps reduce buyer uncertainty. Less uncertainty usually means stronger buyer confidence, and stronger confidence can support stronger pricing. The seller’s job before going to market is to remove as many reasons as possible for buyers to discount the property pricing. Final Thought Buyers do not just buy income. They buy income after adjusting for risk. The better your property looks under buyer underwriting, the stronger your position. The weaker or less organized the property looks, the more buyers will discount, delay, retrade, or walk away. Next week, we will close this series with the decision many owners are asking right now: Should You Sell Now or Wait? If you are thinking about selling, refinancing, or holding your retail property, I can help you review the property the way buyers will underwrite it. That includes income, leases, tenant quality, repairs, financing risk, and likely buyer demand. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvestment #PropertyOwners #MarketUncertainty #BuyerUnderwriting #RetailPricing #CREStrategy #MarcRetailGuy
