Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • January 2, 2026
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Holiday Spending Drives Retail Gains


Holiday retail spending grew 4.2% in the US as in-store sales captured 73% of spend, with strong gains in electronics and apparel...

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DC-area restaurant closings rise, with midpriced dining hit hardest

Restaurant closings in and around Washington, D.C., increased more than 25% this year, with midpriced establishments hit the hardest, as the industry endured mounting obstacles to attract diners and make a profit.

At least 92 eateries closed this year through November, already surpassing 2024's total of 73, according to a Restaurant Association Metropolitan Washington survey of more than 140 restaurants conducted in the fall. During the same period, openings totaled 109, down 30% from 2024, the group said...


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Five trends that shaped retail performance in 2025


While many were calling for 2025 to be the year that the U.S. retail sector turned downward, it remained resilient in the face of rising closures and bankruptcies. In fact, the second half of this year is shaping up to be one of the best-performing halves of the past decade.

Here are five key trends that drove the retail sector's performance in 2025...


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Retail Centers Show Resilience in 2025 Performance Trends

Despite predictions of a downturn, retail centers performed strongly in 2025, reports CoStar. Resilient consumer spending, particularly among higher-income groups, supported retail sales and in turn, demand for retail space. US retail sales rose 3.5% year-over-year, with personal consumption expenditures up 2.8%, helping retail fundamentals remain stable even as inflation cooled to 2.8%...

Trader Joe's adds to US holdings with one of Santa Monica’s biggest retail deals


Supermarket chain Trader Joe's has purchased a former Rite Aid store in one of Southern California's most affluent cities, adding to the grocer's growing portfolio of owned properties across the nation.


Monrovia, California-based Trader Joe’s, known for its value-priced, private-label groceries, bought a freestanding vacant retail store in Santa Monica for $22 million, or about $1,200 per square foot, from a private family trust, according to CoStar data. Rite Aid vacated the space this year as part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing...

How this eatery aims to be the next big mall snack

The founder behind Japanese rice snack chain Onigilly is preparing a retail rollout that aims to turn the once-niche food ubiquitous in Japan into a fixture in Southern California's shopping centers as small food spaces become more common in U.S. malls.



Koji Kanematsu, a former computer systems developer, founded Onigilly after moving to San Francisco from Japan in 2006. The company's name leans into the Japanese pronunciation of onigiri, a small triangular snack made from seasoned short-grain rice and fillings such as cooked tuna, salmon and even fried chicken wrapped in a strip of crisp nori seaweed...


Retail Spending Trends Defy Consumer Sentiment


Retail spending trends remain surprisingly robust, with holiday-period sales increasing by around 4% year-over-year, according to Mastercard and Visa data. However, Globe St reports that once inflation is accounted for, this growth flattens, revealing that Americans are spending more dollars but not necessarily purchasing more goods. These trends come amid declining consumer sentiment since April 2024, underscoring growing uncertainty in the retail sector...

Retail Real Estate in 2026: What Smart Property Owners Are Doing Right Now

By Marc Perlof • December 29, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 29, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed for you. The New Year signifies more than just a new calendar. It marks the official reset point for tenant expectations, capital planning, and leasing strategy for retail property owners. Preliminary data for 2026 suggests that moderate but consistent growth is on the horizon. The Conference Board anticipates that consumer spending will increase by approximately 2% in Q1, primarily fueled by essential goods and neighborhood convenience retail.¹ The status of discretionary categories is still unclear. At the end of 2025, vacancy rates in neighborhood centers throughout the U.S. stood at 5.2%, marking the lowest level in over ten years.² While strong demand and limited new construction give landlords more leverage, it is crucial for them to use data to guide their decisions. The tone is set in January. Those tenants who ended the holiday period with a flat or negative performance are the most susceptible to cash flow stress in the early part of the year. This year, online commerce is projected to increase by another 7%, with mobile now leading the way in discovery and price comparison.³ Centers that facilitate easy access, smooth parking flow, designated pickup areas, and good visibility will attract tenants who are ready to pay higher rents for operational efficiency. It should now be simple for you to focus. Check year-end tenant sales or foot traffic counts, if they are available. Assess the recovery and operating costs of CAM. Determine areas that require repositioning. And begin discussions about renewal ahead of time with tenants who have done well. Powerful operators have already devised their strategy for 2026. Also, landlords should. Call or DM me. I can walk you through a New Year portfolio checkup that turns uncertainty into a strategy you can execute. Are you starting 2026 with clear data or just waiting to see what happens? #retailrealestate #CRE #2026retailoutlook #retailinvestment #leasingstrategy

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • December 26, 2025
Single-Tenant Retail Rebounds As Private Buyers Dominate The STNL retail market is rebounding as private investors take center stage amid easing inflation and improved pricing alignment, reports GlobeSt. According to Marcus & Millichap’s latest report, private buyers drove a 15% increase in their market share over the past 12 months. During the same period, institutional, REIT, and entity-level activity declined. Through Q3 2025, private capital made up 71% of dollar volume, followed by foreign buyers (10%) and REITs (9%)...

December Retail Sales Just Gave Landlords a Huge 60-Day Advantage

By Marc Perlof • December 22, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 22, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed for you. The combination of Hanukkah and Christmas produces the most potent retail period of the whole year. At this moment, tenant performance becomes unmistakably evident. The latest data indicates that U.S. consumers intend to raise their spending in December by 2.5 percent, despite the tightening of household budgets.¹ Concurrently, holiday traffic is changing. According to NIQ, retailers focused on value are experiencing a 12 percent increase in foot traffic compared to the previous year, whereas premium brands are seeing their traffic stabilize.² Customers still wish to shop, but they are opting for less expensive options. This is important for property owners. A tenant's performance in December is often indicative of how they will perform in the first half of the following year. When spending slows down in January and February, retailers who fail to capture holiday dollars will find it difficult. The performance in December offers landlords a 30 to 60-day advantage for renewals, rent adjustments, and replacement planning before less effective operators experience the pressure. This month, online shopping is anticipated to increase by another 6 percent, with a significant rise in curbside pickup.³ This season, retailers focusing on value and necessity are surpassing discretionary categories in traffic and conversion rates by high single digits. Centers that cater to hybrid shopping behaviors will surpass those that do not. Owners should keep an eye on three aspects. Initially, examine the speed of tenant sales, if available. Secondly, examine the conversion of traffic. Third, verify if tenants made early enough adjustments to their inventory to remain competitive. When a tenant is losing momentum during the crucial retail period of the year, it is essential to consider repositioning or renewal adjustments immediately rather than waiting until after the holidays. Call or DM me if you want to dig deeper. I can walk you through how this holiday period can guide your leasing, renewals, and pricing strategy for 2026. Are your tenants winning the moments that matter most? #retailrealestate #holidayretail #CRE #retailinvestment #centerperformance
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