Weekly Retail Real Estate News

Marc Perlof • May 5, 2023
Fed's Anticipated .25% Rate Hike Ushers in New Opportunities


On May 3, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a much-anticipated 0.25%, presenting a plethora of new opportunities and challenges for the retail real estate industry. In this blog article, we'll examine how this rate hike effects cap rates and property values while also exploring potential future situations. We'll explore the prospective effects on retail real estate values and cap rates for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, taking into account the impact of inflation and unemployment patterns, regardless of whether the Fed decides to pause or continue raising rates.


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Olive Garden Parent Darden to Acquire Ruth’s Chris in $715M Deal


Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants Inc. has entered into an agreement to acquire the 154-unit Ruth's Hospitality Group Inc. in a deal valued at about $715 million, the companies said Wednesday. Orlando, Fla.-based Darden, which also owns the LongHorn Steakhouse and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen brands among others, said it will commence a tender offer of $21.50 a share for Ruth’s shares in an all-cash transaction. Fine-dining steakhouse Ruth’s Chris is based in Winter Park, Fla.


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4 Sandwich Chains Attempting To Make a Comeback


Many people lean on sandwiches as a healthier option in the world of fast food, and others enjoy the convenience of a good meal on the go when they're tight on time and money. But while some of the big sandwich chains have been able to weather inflation and lingering COVID-related setbacks, like Jersey Mike's, others, like Subway and Potbelly, have faced store closures and loss of revenue. A few other famous brands are still attempting to make recover and resurge from massive drops in foot traffic, economic pressures, and customers' food quality preferences.


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Inglewood Transit Connector Secures Additional $100M Towards Construction Costs


In a show of unanimous support for the Inglewood Transit Connector (ITC) project, the South Bay Cities Council of Governments (SBCCOG) voted yesterday to re-prioritize over $100 million originally allocated to fund a proposed Centinela grade separation project, to instead serve as “backstop” or reserve funding, for the ITC.


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Hinano Cafe Celebrates 60 Years in Venice Beach


In the ever changing landscape of Los Angeles, locals in Venice Beach have found a second home at Hinano Cafe, a local bar celebrating 60 years of being, what owner Mark Van Gessel calls “the Cheers of Venice.” “At Hinano somehow all the different issues seem to disappear,” Van Gessel said. “Young or old, straight, gay, [or] other preference, all ethnicities; everyone gets along.  It's a really great feeling to see all the different barriers disappear and people just get along.”


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Duck Donuts Races Ahead, Ready For Its Next Act


Betsy Hamm heard through a friend Duck Donuts was moving its headquarters to Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, and searching for a marketing leader. What she wasn’t familiar with, though, was the brand itself. The population last year of its origin town—Duck, North Carolina—was 782 full-time residents. The Outer Banks vacation spot, which sees that number climb over 20,000 during peak season, is the 11,252th largest city in America. But Duck Donuts knows how to leave an impression. Hamm, a Pennsylvania native with 15 years at Hershey Entertainment & Resorts on her resume, texted a couple of confidants who had visited the concept’s day one store on the Sound side of the sandbar island.


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Most Popular Grocery Chain in US States


With a rising number of grocers sprouting up, chains have been devising unique tactics to stay ahead. A recent report from Placer.ai, a location analytics and foot traffic data company, identified the most-favored grocery stores in states across the country. Kroger, one of the nation’s retail powerhouses, was the most popular grocery store in six states across the Midwest and South, including Ohio where local shoppers visited the chain 42% of the time in March, the most recent data available, while customers in Indiana were also found to prefer Kroger over other grocers, with visit shares of 34%. Mississippi shoppers visited 43% of the time, and the rate in Tennessee was 35%. In Kentucky and West Virginia, Kroger was also crowned the top grocery chain, with visit shares of 59% and 51%.


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Ikea's Plans To Open In Ontario Run Into Zoning Snag

Plans that have been in the works since 2019 to bring an Ikea to Ontario, California, have stalled. The home furnishings giant had originally planned a retail location but decided to instead develop a distribution center after the pandemic began. But the city of Ontario shut that idea down, the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin reported this week.


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Cannabis Industry Prefers Property Leasing Over Purchasing, Survey Says


The legalized cannabis industry appears to be moving more rapidly toward leasing property as opposed to buying it as new states open up for sales, creating more competition. A decline in cannabis prices that began last summer caused the industry to rethink its property needs. The National Association of Realtors has observed the direct effects on multiple facets of real estate, according to the trade group, which surveyed its members in March and released a report last week.


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This Analyst Believes Banks Will Extend CRE Loans As Maturities Come Due


No one is quite sure what will happen when the wave of CRE loan maturities start to come due this year and into the next few.  Aaron Jodka, Colliers’ research director of U.S. Capital Markets, has his theories though. He believes that banks and other lenders may be willing to renew or extend loans for the coming wave of maturities coming due as long as they meet coverage ratios. He also believes, according to a post he wrote, that borrowers who had interest rate swaps should be able to work with lenders on rate buydowns.


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National Landing's Retailers Are Counting On Strong Foot Traffic. Can Amazon Deliver?


As Amazon prepares to unveil the first new buildings of its HQ2 campus this summer — a pair of towers totaling 2.1M SF of office space — the tech giant and its development partner are adding a huge roster of retailers and restaurants to the area. The key question for the neighborhood now becomes: Will there be a big enough boost in foot traffic to support those businesses?


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Mall Owners Face Loss of Bed Bath & Beyond, Franklin BSP Recoups Hotel Loan, Cleveland Hotel Refinances After Canceled Sale


Mall Owners Face Loss of Bed Bath & Beyond: Landlords with commercial mortage-backed securities loans on more than 120 U.S. shopping malls have exposure to Bed Bath & Beyond, which filed for bankruptcy protection as its looks for buyers, according to bond-rating firm DBRS Morningstar. Those borrowers are holding loans on properties with balances of more than $5.33 billion and many are now facing the loss of one of their largest tenants. Collectively, the malls are appraised at nearly $10 billion.


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By Marc Perlof February 2, 2026
Retail Real Estate 2026: Why Some Properties Stay Strong While Others Struggle By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy February 2, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here is what just changed. Retail real estate in 2026 is no longer one market. It has split into clear winners and clear losers. Owners who understand this are protecting value. Owners who do not are feeling pressure. The biggest change is how people spend money when things feel uncertain. Interest rates are higher. Costs are up. Households are more careful. That shift shows up first at the property level. Some retail feels stress faster than others. Lifestyle centers, nightlife areas, entertainment districts, and tourist retail depend on optional spending. When people cut back, visits drop. Sales slow. Tenants push back on rent. Vacancies last longer. This is not a crash. It is a pressure issue tied to spending people can delay. Other retail performs differently. Grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, medical and dental, quick-service food, auto service, and personal care are built around daily habits. People cut wants before needs. That makes income steadier and easier to support in a cautious market. Recent retail market reports show this split clearly. National retail vacancy stayed fairly stable through late 2025, mostly in the mid-5 percent to high-6 percent range, with necessity-based centers performing better than discretionary locations¹. Leasing slowed in 2025, with longer decision times and more rent pushback, especially from non-essential tenants². Buyers are still active, but they are more careful. They now focus on tenant quality, lease length, and operating costs more than rent growth³. What retail owners should focus on right now • Daily-needs tenants reduce risk. Properties with grocery, medical, pharmacy, and quick-service food see more stable rent and fewer concession requests. That helps protect sale price and lender support in slower markets¹. • Grocery-anchored centers sell faster. Buyers still want these assets because traffic is predictable and costs are easier to pass through. These deals tend to fall apart less often³. • Discretionary retail carries pricing risk. Properties tied to optional spending face longer vacancies, rent resistance at renewal, and wider gaps between buyer and seller pricing. Waiting too long to adjust can hurt value, not just cash flow². One thing is becoming clear in early 2026. The market is not pricing retail as one category anymore. It is pricing risk. Two properties with the same income can be worth very different amounts based on tenant mix, lease terms, and rising expenses. Owners who understand this protect equity. Others only see the gap after a buyer or lender points it out. The takeaway is simple. Retail real estate in 2026 is about quality, not hype. Stable income matters. Lease terms matter. Tenant mix matters. Insurance and operating costs matter. Owners who match strategy to how their tenants actually perform stay in control. Owners who rely on old assumptions end up reacting. If you want a clear, property-specific review of how buyers and lenders would view your retail asset today, I can prepare a short market positioning summary. No templates. No guesses. Just how your property would really trade in this market. Ask yourself this. Is your property built around spending people can delay, or spending they rely on every week? #RetailRealEstate2026 #RetailMarketOutlook #EssentialServicesRetail #GroceryAnchoredRetailCenters #DiscretionaryRetailProperties
By Marc Perlof January 30, 2026
Smoothie King plots 90-plus new openings for 2026 The world’s largest smoothie franchise isn’t planning on slowing down its growth after a strong 2025.  Smoothie King says it plans to open more than 90 new store openings in 2026, in addition to launching a targeted franchisee incentive program spanning several key states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and more. Through the program, Smoothie King says it is offering financial incentives to “growth-minded franchisees,” designed to accelerate brand awareness and density in these markets...
By Marc Perlof January 26, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy January 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. 2026 is shaping up to be a year where retail property owners need to pay attention. Not to fear. Not to headlines. To real signals in the market. There is more global and domestic uncertainty right now. Conflicts overseas, trade tension, higher government debt, and political changes in the U.S. all affect interest rates, insurance markets, and investor behavior. This does not mean panic. It means owners need clear, reliable information. Here is where the retail market stands today. Local retail remained steady through late 2025. In Los Angeles County, vacancy ranged from about 5.6 to 6.9 percent in the second half of the year¹²³. That tells us demand is still healthy, even as some tenants adjust space needs or renew leases at new rent levels. Leasing activity slowed in some areas. Spaces are taking longer to fill, and asking rents softened slightly as owners and tenants reset pricing². This is a normal market adjustment, not a collapse. On the investment side, commercial real estate transactions increased nationally through mid 2025. Both the number of deals and total dollar volume rose, showing capital is still moving⁵. Buyers are active when pricing reflects today’s risks and returns. This is exactly what I am seeing in live pricing discussions and negotiations right now. Insurance remains one of the biggest issues for retail owners. Property insurance markets became more stable in 2025, and rate increases slowed in some areas. However, insurers are still selective. Coverage terms matter more than ever, especially for properties exposed to wildfire or coastal risk⁴. Insurance costs directly affect net income, lease negotiations, and buyer interest. Retail Outlook for Q1 and Q2 2026 In early 2026, the retail market is likely to stay steady but measured. Vacancy is expected to remain near current levels. Leasing will be deliberate, not rushed. Rents should hold close to where they ended in 2025 as owners and tenants continue to agree on realistic pricing. Capital will remain active for properties with solid income, strong tenant credit, and durable lease terms. Buyers are selective, but they are still moving forward when risk and return are properly aligned. Insurance markets will stay selective in the first half of 2026. Owners need to plan renewals carefully and understand how insurance affects operating costs, tenant negotiations, and future sale value. Here is a simple retail risk check for 2026: • Local vacancy around 6 percent, stable but uneven by location¹ • Leasing takes longer than peak years, making pricing discipline critical² • Capital remains active, but underwriting is conservative⁵ • Insurance coverage is improving in some areas, but terms still matter⁴ Not all retail performs the same. Discretionary-driven destinations like lifestyle centers, nightlife districts, and tourist-focused shopping streets feel more pressure when consumer spending slows. Retail that serves daily needs and essential services tends to perform better during uncertain cycles. The best strategy now is disciplined and data-driven. Focus on tenant credit strength. Protect lease term and income stability. Price based on real market data. Understand insurance risk clearly. This is how value is protected in changing markets. I help retail property owners position assets based on real tenant behavior and real buyer demand. Not headlines. Call or DM me if you want a clear view of how your retail property should be positioned for 2026. How will you adjust your leasing or investment strategy this year based on what the market is actually telling us? #RetailRealEstate #LosAngelesCRE #CommercialRealEstateOutlook #RetailInvestment #CRE2026 #MarcRetailGuy
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