Weekly Retail Real Estate News

Marc Perlof • May 5, 2023
Fed's Anticipated .25% Rate Hike Ushers in New Opportunities


On May 3, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a much-anticipated 0.25%, presenting a plethora of new opportunities and challenges for the retail real estate industry. In this blog article, we'll examine how this rate hike effects cap rates and property values while also exploring potential future situations. We'll explore the prospective effects on retail real estate values and cap rates for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, taking into account the impact of inflation and unemployment patterns, regardless of whether the Fed decides to pause or continue raising rates.


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Olive Garden Parent Darden to Acquire Ruth’s Chris in $715M Deal


Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants Inc. has entered into an agreement to acquire the 154-unit Ruth's Hospitality Group Inc. in a deal valued at about $715 million, the companies said Wednesday. Orlando, Fla.-based Darden, which also owns the LongHorn Steakhouse and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen brands among others, said it will commence a tender offer of $21.50 a share for Ruth’s shares in an all-cash transaction. Fine-dining steakhouse Ruth’s Chris is based in Winter Park, Fla.


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4 Sandwich Chains Attempting To Make a Comeback


Many people lean on sandwiches as a healthier option in the world of fast food, and others enjoy the convenience of a good meal on the go when they're tight on time and money. But while some of the big sandwich chains have been able to weather inflation and lingering COVID-related setbacks, like Jersey Mike's, others, like Subway and Potbelly, have faced store closures and loss of revenue. A few other famous brands are still attempting to make recover and resurge from massive drops in foot traffic, economic pressures, and customers' food quality preferences.


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Inglewood Transit Connector Secures Additional $100M Towards Construction Costs


In a show of unanimous support for the Inglewood Transit Connector (ITC) project, the South Bay Cities Council of Governments (SBCCOG) voted yesterday to re-prioritize over $100 million originally allocated to fund a proposed Centinela grade separation project, to instead serve as “backstop” or reserve funding, for the ITC.


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Hinano Cafe Celebrates 60 Years in Venice Beach


In the ever changing landscape of Los Angeles, locals in Venice Beach have found a second home at Hinano Cafe, a local bar celebrating 60 years of being, what owner Mark Van Gessel calls “the Cheers of Venice.” “At Hinano somehow all the different issues seem to disappear,” Van Gessel said. “Young or old, straight, gay, [or] other preference, all ethnicities; everyone gets along.  It's a really great feeling to see all the different barriers disappear and people just get along.”


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Duck Donuts Races Ahead, Ready For Its Next Act


Betsy Hamm heard through a friend Duck Donuts was moving its headquarters to Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, and searching for a marketing leader. What she wasn’t familiar with, though, was the brand itself. The population last year of its origin town—Duck, North Carolina—was 782 full-time residents. The Outer Banks vacation spot, which sees that number climb over 20,000 during peak season, is the 11,252th largest city in America. But Duck Donuts knows how to leave an impression. Hamm, a Pennsylvania native with 15 years at Hershey Entertainment & Resorts on her resume, texted a couple of confidants who had visited the concept’s day one store on the Sound side of the sandbar island.


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Most Popular Grocery Chain in US States


With a rising number of grocers sprouting up, chains have been devising unique tactics to stay ahead. A recent report from Placer.ai, a location analytics and foot traffic data company, identified the most-favored grocery stores in states across the country. Kroger, one of the nation’s retail powerhouses, was the most popular grocery store in six states across the Midwest and South, including Ohio where local shoppers visited the chain 42% of the time in March, the most recent data available, while customers in Indiana were also found to prefer Kroger over other grocers, with visit shares of 34%. Mississippi shoppers visited 43% of the time, and the rate in Tennessee was 35%. In Kentucky and West Virginia, Kroger was also crowned the top grocery chain, with visit shares of 59% and 51%.


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Ikea's Plans To Open In Ontario Run Into Zoning Snag

Plans that have been in the works since 2019 to bring an Ikea to Ontario, California, have stalled. The home furnishings giant had originally planned a retail location but decided to instead develop a distribution center after the pandemic began. But the city of Ontario shut that idea down, the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin reported this week.


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Cannabis Industry Prefers Property Leasing Over Purchasing, Survey Says


The legalized cannabis industry appears to be moving more rapidly toward leasing property as opposed to buying it as new states open up for sales, creating more competition. A decline in cannabis prices that began last summer caused the industry to rethink its property needs. The National Association of Realtors has observed the direct effects on multiple facets of real estate, according to the trade group, which surveyed its members in March and released a report last week.


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This Analyst Believes Banks Will Extend CRE Loans As Maturities Come Due


No one is quite sure what will happen when the wave of CRE loan maturities start to come due this year and into the next few.  Aaron Jodka, Colliers’ research director of U.S. Capital Markets, has his theories though. He believes that banks and other lenders may be willing to renew or extend loans for the coming wave of maturities coming due as long as they meet coverage ratios. He also believes, according to a post he wrote, that borrowers who had interest rate swaps should be able to work with lenders on rate buydowns.


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National Landing's Retailers Are Counting On Strong Foot Traffic. Can Amazon Deliver?


As Amazon prepares to unveil the first new buildings of its HQ2 campus this summer — a pair of towers totaling 2.1M SF of office space — the tech giant and its development partner are adding a huge roster of retailers and restaurants to the area. The key question for the neighborhood now becomes: Will there be a big enough boost in foot traffic to support those businesses?


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Mall Owners Face Loss of Bed Bath & Beyond, Franklin BSP Recoups Hotel Loan, Cleveland Hotel Refinances After Canceled Sale


Mall Owners Face Loss of Bed Bath & Beyond: Landlords with commercial mortage-backed securities loans on more than 120 U.S. shopping malls have exposure to Bed Bath & Beyond, which filed for bankruptcy protection as its looks for buyers, according to bond-rating firm DBRS Morningstar. Those borrowers are holding loans on properties with balances of more than $5.33 billion and many are now facing the loss of one of their largest tenants. Collectively, the malls are appraised at nearly $10 billion.


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By Marc Perlof December 15, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 15, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what the newest Federal Reserve move means for your property today. Another ¼ point reduction in interest rates was the result of the Federal Reserve's most recent decision. Jerome Powell highlighted a weakening economy, decreasing inflation, and an obviously cooling labor market in his speech. He pointed out that while services continue to soften at a gradual, steady pace, goods inflation is still sticky due to tariffs. The Fed wants to reduce inflation without overturning the labor market, and employers are cutting down on hiring. Crucially, Powell also stated that policy is already almost neutral and that future decisions will be careful and data-driven rather than instinctive. As the year draws to a conclusion, these signals now influence the actions of regular investors. What does this mean for owners right now? Property values are not increased by rate reductions alone. They accomplish this by lowering uncertainty. Investors resume underwriting as borrowing costs become more predictable. Tours pick up, buyers start modeling offers they passed on a month earlier, and lenders start pricing. Activity nearly always rises first, even if final price has not yet changed. This translates into firmer terms, more talks, and buyers who are now ready to step off the sidelines for active listings. This change is supported by recent economic data. Due to consistent consumer expenditure, services are still growing. As new orders and jobs decline, manufacturing continues to suffer. While the manufacturing PMI is below 50 for the ninth consecutive month, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is in expansion territory. The majority of retail tenants reside in the services sector of the economy rather than the goods-producing sector, which makes this division significant. Expect additional momentum for current listings over the following few weeks. Because the US inflation forecast is uncertain, investors continue to underwrite cautiously; yet, direction is important. The direction is getting better for the first time in months. Powell's speech and the national surveys for Q1 and Q2 2026 indicate a two-stage year with a significant warning about future rate decreases. According to the Fed's own estimates, officials anticipate at most one more rate decrease in 2026. Powell emphasized that the Fed is "well positioned to wait" and evaluate new information before taking action. This implies that the market shouldn't anticipate quick or forceful relaxation. • Q1 2026 can seem sluggish. Input prices are still high, hiring is declining, and many companies will postpone plans for growth as they wait to see if inflation continues to decline. Buyers will remain picky as the Fed is probably on hold. • If inflation continues to decline and the Fed implements small, gradual monetary policy changes, Q2 2026 may see a recovery. When paired with more precise policy guidance, even one more cut can increase transaction volume before it increases pricing. Value shopping, food, retail related to everyday necessities, and service-based tenants ought to perform well. Thin-margin businesses and merchants who sell a lot of goods may find it difficult to keep up with growing expenses. Key insights for property owners today: • Services PMI remains in expansion, showing steady consumer demand². • Manufacturing PMI continues to contract, signaling weakness in goods production². • Employers across sectors are slowing hiring, supporting Powell’s cooling labor market comments¹. • Construction and TI costs remain high due to elevated material prices, including steel, electrical components, and aluminum². • Cap rates are unlikely to compress quickly, but clearer Fed guidance helps stabilize valuations. Recent data worth noting: The ISM non-manufacturing index remained above 52 in November 2025², showing healthy service-sector activity tied to consumer spending. Powell's warning that the job market is deteriorating was reinforced when manufacturing employment dropped to one of its lowest levels this year¹. This is the time for owners to get ready. As underwriting becomes more stringent, clean rent rolls, transparent financials, current CAM reconciliations, and compelling tenant narratives become increasingly important. The owners who are ready make the first gains when activity increases before prices change. If you want to understand how today’s economic shift and the Fed’s cautious 2026 outlook impact your value, cash flow, or timing for a sale or refinance, let’s talk. Call or DM me for more information. With the Fed signaling patience in 2026, are you positioned to benefit from higher activity before pricing fully adjusts? #RetailRealEstate #FederalReserve #CREInvestment #EconomicOutlook #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof December 12, 2025
If the Fed Is Cutting Interest Rates, Why Are 10-Year Treasury Yields Rising? How Does It Affect You? Official interest rates are declining, but not the rates that could matter the most to everyday Americans. Treasury yields ticked up to a three-month high on Wednesday morning despite near certainty on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve was hours away from cutting interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences interest rates on a variety of consumer loans including mortgages, rose Wednesday morning to 4.21%, its highest level since early September. Meanwhile, traders put the probability of a quarter-percentage-point cut today by the Fed at about 90%...
By Marc Perlof December 8, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 8, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. In uncertain markets, retail property owners feel the pressure first. Daily swings in interest rates, consumer confidence, and capital flows make it hard to predict what comes next. The challenge is simple: volatility throws doubt over every decision. The action you take today determines your cash flow tomorrow. And the result can be a stronger, more resilient investment position if you know where to move. Right now, investors are navigating mixed economic signals. Retail sales grew 3.9% year-over-year in Q3, yet borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the pre-2022 cycle¹. Inflation is at a 3.0% annual rate, but pricing remains sticky in service categories². These contradictions create hesitation for many owners. The smart operators don’t freeze. They pivot. They tighten operations, sharpen underwriting, and prepare their assets for the moment clarity returns. Here’s what the most experienced ownership groups are doing: • Stress testing rents, renewals, and expense loads using conservative economic assumptions³ • Re-underwriting tenant credit and evaluating exposure to weaker retail categories • Focusing on assets in trade areas with above-average household income growth³ • Front-loading maintenance and capital planning to preserve NOI predictability • Positioning properties for refinancing when spreads tighten and lenders re-enter the market³ Data points worth watching: Retail vacancy nationwide is hovering around 4.3%-5.8%⁴. Investment sales volume is down 35% year-over-year, but cap rates widened only modestly, showing continued buyer appetite for quality⁴. When markets are noisy, the winners keep discipline. They stay focused on fundamentals that never go out of style: tenant quality, location strength, and consistent reporting. Volatility rewards the prepared, not the passive. If you want clarity on how today’s market impacts the value of your specific property, I can break it down with precision. Call or DM me for more information. What strategic move are you avoiding today that could protect your property’s value tomorrow? #RetailRealEstate #CREInvesting #MarketInsights #NetLease #CommercialProperty
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