Weekly Retail Real Estate News

Marc Perlof • May 5, 2023
Fed's Anticipated .25% Rate Hike Ushers in New Opportunities


On May 3, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a much-anticipated 0.25%, presenting a plethora of new opportunities and challenges for the retail real estate industry. In this blog article, we'll examine how this rate hike effects cap rates and property values while also exploring potential future situations. We'll explore the prospective effects on retail real estate values and cap rates for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, taking into account the impact of inflation and unemployment patterns, regardless of whether the Fed decides to pause or continue raising rates.


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Olive Garden Parent Darden to Acquire Ruth’s Chris in $715M Deal


Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants Inc. has entered into an agreement to acquire the 154-unit Ruth's Hospitality Group Inc. in a deal valued at about $715 million, the companies said Wednesday. Orlando, Fla.-based Darden, which also owns the LongHorn Steakhouse and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen brands among others, said it will commence a tender offer of $21.50 a share for Ruth’s shares in an all-cash transaction. Fine-dining steakhouse Ruth’s Chris is based in Winter Park, Fla.


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4 Sandwich Chains Attempting To Make a Comeback


Many people lean on sandwiches as a healthier option in the world of fast food, and others enjoy the convenience of a good meal on the go when they're tight on time and money. But while some of the big sandwich chains have been able to weather inflation and lingering COVID-related setbacks, like Jersey Mike's, others, like Subway and Potbelly, have faced store closures and loss of revenue. A few other famous brands are still attempting to make recover and resurge from massive drops in foot traffic, economic pressures, and customers' food quality preferences.


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Inglewood Transit Connector Secures Additional $100M Towards Construction Costs


In a show of unanimous support for the Inglewood Transit Connector (ITC) project, the South Bay Cities Council of Governments (SBCCOG) voted yesterday to re-prioritize over $100 million originally allocated to fund a proposed Centinela grade separation project, to instead serve as “backstop” or reserve funding, for the ITC.


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Hinano Cafe Celebrates 60 Years in Venice Beach


In the ever changing landscape of Los Angeles, locals in Venice Beach have found a second home at Hinano Cafe, a local bar celebrating 60 years of being, what owner Mark Van Gessel calls “the Cheers of Venice.” “At Hinano somehow all the different issues seem to disappear,” Van Gessel said. “Young or old, straight, gay, [or] other preference, all ethnicities; everyone gets along.  It's a really great feeling to see all the different barriers disappear and people just get along.”


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Duck Donuts Races Ahead, Ready For Its Next Act


Betsy Hamm heard through a friend Duck Donuts was moving its headquarters to Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, and searching for a marketing leader. What she wasn’t familiar with, though, was the brand itself. The population last year of its origin town—Duck, North Carolina—was 782 full-time residents. The Outer Banks vacation spot, which sees that number climb over 20,000 during peak season, is the 11,252th largest city in America. But Duck Donuts knows how to leave an impression. Hamm, a Pennsylvania native with 15 years at Hershey Entertainment & Resorts on her resume, texted a couple of confidants who had visited the concept’s day one store on the Sound side of the sandbar island.


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Most Popular Grocery Chain in US States


With a rising number of grocers sprouting up, chains have been devising unique tactics to stay ahead. A recent report from Placer.ai, a location analytics and foot traffic data company, identified the most-favored grocery stores in states across the country. Kroger, one of the nation’s retail powerhouses, was the most popular grocery store in six states across the Midwest and South, including Ohio where local shoppers visited the chain 42% of the time in March, the most recent data available, while customers in Indiana were also found to prefer Kroger over other grocers, with visit shares of 34%. Mississippi shoppers visited 43% of the time, and the rate in Tennessee was 35%. In Kentucky and West Virginia, Kroger was also crowned the top grocery chain, with visit shares of 59% and 51%.


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Ikea's Plans To Open In Ontario Run Into Zoning Snag

Plans that have been in the works since 2019 to bring an Ikea to Ontario, California, have stalled. The home furnishings giant had originally planned a retail location but decided to instead develop a distribution center after the pandemic began. But the city of Ontario shut that idea down, the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin reported this week.


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Cannabis Industry Prefers Property Leasing Over Purchasing, Survey Says


The legalized cannabis industry appears to be moving more rapidly toward leasing property as opposed to buying it as new states open up for sales, creating more competition. A decline in cannabis prices that began last summer caused the industry to rethink its property needs. The National Association of Realtors has observed the direct effects on multiple facets of real estate, according to the trade group, which surveyed its members in March and released a report last week.


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This Analyst Believes Banks Will Extend CRE Loans As Maturities Come Due


No one is quite sure what will happen when the wave of CRE loan maturities start to come due this year and into the next few.  Aaron Jodka, Colliers’ research director of U.S. Capital Markets, has his theories though. He believes that banks and other lenders may be willing to renew or extend loans for the coming wave of maturities coming due as long as they meet coverage ratios. He also believes, according to a post he wrote, that borrowers who had interest rate swaps should be able to work with lenders on rate buydowns.


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National Landing's Retailers Are Counting On Strong Foot Traffic. Can Amazon Deliver?


As Amazon prepares to unveil the first new buildings of its HQ2 campus this summer — a pair of towers totaling 2.1M SF of office space — the tech giant and its development partner are adding a huge roster of retailers and restaurants to the area. The key question for the neighborhood now becomes: Will there be a big enough boost in foot traffic to support those businesses?


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Mall Owners Face Loss of Bed Bath & Beyond, Franklin BSP Recoups Hotel Loan, Cleveland Hotel Refinances After Canceled Sale


Mall Owners Face Loss of Bed Bath & Beyond: Landlords with commercial mortage-backed securities loans on more than 120 U.S. shopping malls have exposure to Bed Bath & Beyond, which filed for bankruptcy protection as its looks for buyers, according to bond-rating firm DBRS Morningstar. Those borrowers are holding loans on properties with balances of more than $5.33 billion and many are now facing the loss of one of their largest tenants. Collectively, the malls are appraised at nearly $10 billion.


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By Marc Perlof March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....
By Marc Perlof March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates
By Marc Perlof March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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