Weekly Retail Real Estate News

Marc Perlof • September 22, 2023
The Fed Maintains Its Wait-and-See Stance


The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee on Wednesday voted to leave its policy rate unchanged, suggesting that the economy is moving in the right direction and inflation impulses are easing. The decision leaves the overnight lending target rate for banks at between 5.25% and 5.5%, which the Fed believes is restrictive territory or a level that constrains economic growth.The last time the committee raised rates was at its July meeting.

 

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Portillo's Bolsters Growth Projections to 920 Restaurants


Portillo's has been around for six decades, but no era in the company's history matches up to its current growth trajectory. At a minimum, the brand said it has room for 920 U.S. stores, a more than 50 percent increase above its previous projection of 600. This larger whitespace projection calls for 120 drive-thru-only units and urban-based walk-up locations. These outlets would only appear in markets with six to eight full-scale Portillo's locations. The brand foresees additional alternative formats in airports, college campuses, and overseas.

 

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Beverly Hills Seeks To Eliminate Confusion Over Retail Image


An attempt to create an elegant image for luxury retail real estate in Beverly Hills, California, can cause confusion, real estate professionals say, potentially creating the appearance of a lack of property demand in the home to wealthy celebrities and corporate CEOs. Online news stories and social media posts have claimed that some shops and restaurant spaces around famed Rodeo Drive are empty or boarded up due to perceived theft issues.

 

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First Look: Walmart opens its first-ever pet services center


Walmart’s transparent, affordable health care model is going to the dogs. Literally. In a pilot that expands its traditional pet supplies business, the retail giant has opened its first-ever dedicated Pet Services center, in the Atlanta suburb of Dallas, Ga. It’s located in the same store where Walmart opened the doors to its first walmart health center in 2019.

 

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Inside Jack in the Box’s Franchise Revival


Salt Lake City is Jack in the Box’s first new market in over 10 years and marks the first step in an aggressive expansion effort. The 72-year-old legacy chain is making significant progress on its push to reignite franchise growth nationwide.

 

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Nontraditional Site Competition Heats Up in Fast Food


Sbarro CEO David Karam knows how to capture an impulse occasion. It starts with igniting the senses and creating a craving, then satisfying it with a slice of New York-style pizza. That’s how the chain became the quintessential food court operator synonymous with mall culture back in the early 2000s.

 

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The 24 Fastest-Growing Fast-Food Chains in America


As brands seek growth, they're still dealing with equipment issues, permitting delays, and a potential recession. All of there factors are under deep consideration as chains pick and choose real estate.

 

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Chicago Studies Possibility of City-Owned Grocery Store

The city of Chicago said it is partnering with a national nonprofit organization to explore the feasibility of opening a city-owned grocery store in an underserved area of Chicago. Chicago would be the first major U.S. city to open a municipally owned grocery store to address food inequity, according to a statement from the office of Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson.

 

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6 Shifting Consumer Trends Affecting Quick-Service Restaurants

Consumers’ preferences are shifting like never before, due to a variety of societal and economic dynamics. How can quick-service restaurants adjust to maintain—and potentially increase—foot traffic during these transformative times? The first step is to gain awareness of the consumer mindset, and then develop a strategy to add value and growth.

 

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Birkenstock files for IPO


An iconic, German-made footwear brand with a devoted global fan base has filed to go public in the U.S. Birkenstock, which was founded some 250 years ago, has filed for an initial public offering. The company, whose filing didn’t how many shares it will list or a price range, plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol BIRK. The IPO could be valued at more than $8 billion, according to Bloomberg.

 

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L.A.'s Thriving Sycamore District Is Home to Beyonce's Management, SiriusXM, Top Restaurants and a Record Store


Los Angeles has a new, hidden hub of music, art, retail and restaurants frequented by some of the biggest stars in music who are increasingly lured to the area by industry staples including SiriusXM, Jay-Z’s Roc Nation, Beyoncé’s Parkwood Entertainment, Kobalt Music Group, recording studio Record Plant and, soon, Sony Music Publishing.

 

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Growth-Minded Freddy’s Keeps the Focus on Franchisees


Freddy’s Frozen Custard & Steakburgers has added more than 100 commitments to its growth pipeline this year already. That after just shy of 130 last year and 117 the calendar before. As one of QSR’s Franchise Council members phrased it recently, “this quiet success story from the Midwest” has left its low profile behind. But how and why the burger brand charted rapid growth during an era of delays, surging inflation, and the continued recovery of the sector out of COVID, trails back to the origin, says Chris Dull, CEO and president, who took over the top post in May 2021.

 

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No Fred Meyer stores are included in Kroger, Albertsons deal with C&S


Kroger and Albertsons agreed to sell hundreds of stores to C&S Wholesale Grocers as part of a divestiture plan for their proposed $24.6 billion merger, but the deal will not include any Fred Meyer stores, reports the Oregonian. Instead, Kroger will sell stores from their QFC chain — in addition to some Albertsons Safeway banners — in an attempt to alleviate competitive concerns in the Northwest Region.

 

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By Marc Perlof December 15, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 15, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here is what the newest Federal Reserve move means for your property today. Another ¼ point reduction in interest rates was the result of the Federal Reserve's most recent decision. Jerome Powell highlighted a weakening economy, decreasing inflation, and an obviously cooling labor market in his speech. He pointed out that while services continue to soften at a gradual, steady pace, goods inflation is still sticky due to tariffs. The Fed wants to reduce inflation without overturning the labor market, and employers are cutting down on hiring. Crucially, Powell also stated that policy is already almost neutral and that future decisions will be careful and data-driven rather than instinctive. As the year draws to a conclusion, these signals now influence the actions of regular investors. What does this mean for owners right now? Property values are not increased by rate reductions alone. They accomplish this by lowering uncertainty. Investors resume underwriting as borrowing costs become more predictable. Tours pick up, buyers start modeling offers they passed on a month earlier, and lenders start pricing. Activity nearly always rises first, even if final price has not yet changed. This translates into firmer terms, more talks, and buyers who are now ready to step off the sidelines for active listings. This change is supported by recent economic data. Due to consistent consumer expenditure, services are still growing. As new orders and jobs decline, manufacturing continues to suffer. While the manufacturing PMI is below 50 for the ninth consecutive month, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is in expansion territory. The majority of retail tenants reside in the services sector of the economy rather than the goods-producing sector, which makes this division significant. Expect additional momentum for current listings over the following few weeks. Because the US inflation forecast is uncertain, investors continue to underwrite cautiously; yet, direction is important. The direction is getting better for the first time in months. Powell's speech and the national surveys for Q1 and Q2 2026 indicate a two-stage year with a significant warning about future rate decreases. According to the Fed's own estimates, officials anticipate at most one more rate decrease in 2026. Powell emphasized that the Fed is "well positioned to wait" and evaluate new information before taking action. This implies that the market shouldn't anticipate quick or forceful relaxation. • Q1 2026 can seem sluggish. Input prices are still high, hiring is declining, and many companies will postpone plans for growth as they wait to see if inflation continues to decline. Buyers will remain picky as the Fed is probably on hold. • If inflation continues to decline and the Fed implements small, gradual monetary policy changes, Q2 2026 may see a recovery. When paired with more precise policy guidance, even one more cut can increase transaction volume before it increases pricing. Value shopping, food, retail related to everyday necessities, and service-based tenants ought to perform well. Thin-margin businesses and merchants who sell a lot of goods may find it difficult to keep up with growing expenses. Key insights for property owners today: • Services PMI remains in expansion, showing steady consumer demand². • Manufacturing PMI continues to contract, signaling weakness in goods production². • Employers across sectors are slowing hiring, supporting Powell’s cooling labor market comments¹. • Construction and TI costs remain high due to elevated material prices, including steel, electrical components, and aluminum². • Cap rates are unlikely to compress quickly, but clearer Fed guidance helps stabilize valuations. Recent data worth noting: The ISM non-manufacturing index remained above 52 in November 2025², showing healthy service-sector activity tied to consumer spending. Powell's warning that the job market is deteriorating was reinforced when manufacturing employment dropped to one of its lowest levels this year¹. This is the time for owners to get ready. As underwriting becomes more stringent, clean rent rolls, transparent financials, current CAM reconciliations, and compelling tenant narratives become increasingly important. The owners who are ready make the first gains when activity increases before prices change. If you want to understand how today’s economic shift and the Fed’s cautious 2026 outlook impact your value, cash flow, or timing for a sale or refinance, let’s talk. Call or DM me for more information. With the Fed signaling patience in 2026, are you positioned to benefit from higher activity before pricing fully adjusts? #RetailRealEstate #FederalReserve #CREInvestment #EconomicOutlook #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof December 12, 2025
If the Fed Is Cutting Interest Rates, Why Are 10-Year Treasury Yields Rising? How Does It Affect You? Official interest rates are declining, but not the rates that could matter the most to everyday Americans. Treasury yields ticked up to a three-month high on Wednesday morning despite near certainty on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve was hours away from cutting interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences interest rates on a variety of consumer loans including mortgages, rose Wednesday morning to 4.21%, its highest level since early September. Meanwhile, traders put the probability of a quarter-percentage-point cut today by the Fed at about 90%...
By Marc Perlof December 8, 2025
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy December 8, 2025 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. In uncertain markets, retail property owners feel the pressure first. Daily swings in interest rates, consumer confidence, and capital flows make it hard to predict what comes next. The challenge is simple: volatility throws doubt over every decision. The action you take today determines your cash flow tomorrow. And the result can be a stronger, more resilient investment position if you know where to move. Right now, investors are navigating mixed economic signals. Retail sales grew 3.9% year-over-year in Q3, yet borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the pre-2022 cycle¹. Inflation is at a 3.0% annual rate, but pricing remains sticky in service categories². These contradictions create hesitation for many owners. The smart operators don’t freeze. They pivot. They tighten operations, sharpen underwriting, and prepare their assets for the moment clarity returns. Here’s what the most experienced ownership groups are doing: • Stress testing rents, renewals, and expense loads using conservative economic assumptions³ • Re-underwriting tenant credit and evaluating exposure to weaker retail categories • Focusing on assets in trade areas with above-average household income growth³ • Front-loading maintenance and capital planning to preserve NOI predictability • Positioning properties for refinancing when spreads tighten and lenders re-enter the market³ Data points worth watching: Retail vacancy nationwide is hovering around 4.3%-5.8%⁴. Investment sales volume is down 35% year-over-year, but cap rates widened only modestly, showing continued buyer appetite for quality⁴. When markets are noisy, the winners keep discipline. They stay focused on fundamentals that never go out of style: tenant quality, location strength, and consistent reporting. Volatility rewards the prepared, not the passive. If you want clarity on how today’s market impacts the value of your specific property, I can break it down with precision. Call or DM me for more information. What strategic move are you avoiding today that could protect your property’s value tomorrow? #RetailRealEstate #CREInvesting #MarketInsights #NetLease #CommercialProperty
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