The K-Shaped Economy Is Changing How Buyers Price Retail Properties

Marc Perlof • June 29, 2026

By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy

CA #01489206


June 29, 2026


If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you.


The consumer is still spending, but buyers are not treating all retail income the same. The simple answer is this: retail properties with clean, durable income are getting more attention, while properties with weaker tenants, short leases, or messy income are getting discounted.


The K-shaped economy is now a pricing issue for retail property owners.


What Changed

The K-shaped economy is not just a consumer story anymore. It is becoming a real estate pricing story. A K-shaped economy means some consumers are doing well, while others are under more pressure. Higher income households may keep spending. Lower and middle income households may become more careful with food, gas, rent, credit cards, and discretionary purchases.


Bank of America Institute reported that total credit and debit card spending per household increased 4.8% year over year in April 2026, but spending growth slowed in several discretionary “nice to have” categories.¹


That matters for retail owners. Consumers are still spending, but they are choosing more carefully. That creates a stronger market for some tenants and a weaker market for others.


What is causing it?

Retail sales are still positive. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that advance U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2026 were $763.7 billion, up 0.9% from April 2026 and up 6.9% from May 2025.² That is supportive for retail.

But it does not mean every shopping center, strip center, or Triple Net (NNN) property is protected. CRE Daily recently reported that the K-shaped economy is also creating splits inside real estate asset classes. Investors are becoming more focused on assets tied to stronger demand, demographics, and durable income.³ That is the real change. The market is not just separating retail from other property types. It is separating stronger retail income from weaker retail income.


Why It Matters

How does this affect your property value? Your property value is based on income.

If your tenants pay on time, reimburse NNN charges, renew leases, and serve steady customer demand, buyers have more confidence in your NOI.


If your leases are short, your Common Area Maintenance (CAM) recovery is unclear, your tenants are weak, or your rent is above market, buyers will underwrite more risk. That risk shows up in price.


For example, if your NOI is $250,000 and the buyer uses a 6.25% cap rate, the value is about $4,000,000. If the buyer sees more risk and uses a 6.75% cap rate, that same NOI supports about $3,703,704 in value. That is almost $296,000 of value difference. This is why income quality matters.


How are buyers underwriting retail today? Buyers are looking harder at tenant durability. They want to know if the tenant sells something people need, something people want, or something people cut when money gets tight.


They are looking at lease term, rent level, rent increases, options, NNN reimbursement language, CAM, insurance, taxes, roof, HVAC, parking, and future capital exposure.


They are also asking one simple question. Can this income survive a more selective consumer? If the answer is yes, your property gets stronger attention. If the answer is no, the buyer will either reduce price or move on.


What does this mean for Los Angeles and Southern California owners? Los Angeles retail is not one market. A grocery-anchored center in a dense trade area is not the same as a small strip center with weak parking and short leases. A NNN property with a strong tenant and limited landlord responsibility is not the same as a value add center with deferred maintenance and uncertain leasing. CBRE reported that U.S. retail availability was 4.9% in Q1 2026, with average retail asking rent up 2.4% year over year.4 That shows retail supply remains tight nationally, but local property quality still matters. In Southern California, buyers are not buying the headline. They are buying the income stream.


Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners

What should you do right now?

  1. Identify which tenants benefit from a selective consumer. Daily needs, value, grocery, discount, food, service, medical, and necessity driven tenants should be separated from more discretionary tenants.
  2. Position your property around income durability, not just occupancy. A full center is not enough. Buyers want to know if the tenants can keep paying rent if consumers pull back. 
  3. Price the property based on the weakest part of the income stream

If one tenant has a short lease, above market rent, payment issues, or unclear reimbursements, buyers may use that risk to reprice the whole asset.


Real Deal Insight

This is how deals are being underwritten today. Buyers are separating durable retail income from weaker retail income and pricing each one differently.


Owner Self-Assessment

If a buyer reviewed your leases, rent roll, and NNN recovery today, would they see stable income or future risk?


If you own a strip center, shopping center, NNN property, or retail redevelopment site, I can help you review the income, pressure test buyer underwriting, and identify where value is protected or exposed before you make a sale, refinance, or hold decision.


What would a serious buyer question first if they reviewed your retail property today?


Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.


Sources

1 Bank of America Institute, Consumer Checkpoint, May 2026

2 U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2026

3 CRE Daily, “K-Shaped Economy Drives Asset Class Splits in Real Estate,” June 23, 2026 

4 CBRE, U.S. Retail Figures, Q1 2026



Disclaimer

This post is for information only. It is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Always check with a licensed professional before making decisions.




© 2026 Marc Perlof Group. All rights reserved.


By Marc Perlof June 26, 2026
10-year Treasury yield is little changed after May inflation data comes in as expected U.S. Treasury yields were relatively unchanged on Thursday as Wall Street assessed key inflation data for May. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the key benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — fell less than 1 basis point to 4.396%. The 2-year Treasury note yield, which more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy, declined 1 basis point to 4.127%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was up less than 1 basis point at 4.861%...
By Marc Perlof June 22, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 June 22, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. In a seller’s market, the strongest pricing results usually come from creating competition, not simply setting the highest asking price possible. Retail property owners who understand how to manage buyer psychology and negotiation leverage usually achieve better results than owners who rely only on aggressive pricing. When buyer demand increases and inventory becomes limited, pricing strategy changes significantly. Buyers move faster, competition increases, and leverage often shifts toward sellers. In the previous article, “How to Price Retail Property in a Buyer’s Market,” I discussed how owners should reduce buyer fear, respond to conservative underwriting, and protect leverage when buyers control negotiations. What Changed What happens in a seller’s market? In a seller’s market, strong retail properties often attract multiple buyers at the same time. When there are fewer properties available for sale, buyers often compete harder for well-located properties with strong tenants and reliable income. That competition can improve both pricing and deal terms. Buyers who move slowly in weaker markets often speed up their decision making once they believe competition exists. That can increase pricing pressure and strengthen seller leverage during negotiations. This is especially true for well positioned NNN properties, shopping centers, and retail assets with strong tenant performance, longer lease terms, stable operating histories, and value add opportunities. Why do buyers behave differently in strong markets? Buyers become more aggressive when they believe quality opportunities are difficult to replace. In stronger markets, investors worry less about finding another deal and more about losing the current opportunity to another buyer. That changes negotiation behavior significantly. Buyers may shorten due diligence timelines, ask for fewer conditions and move forward more quickly, move faster on underwriting, or become more flexible on pricing when they believe competition exists. At the same time, strong markets do not eliminate buyer caution completely. Sophisticated buyers still review lease terms, future repair costs and operating expenses, tenant quality, and long term property risks carefully before making decisions. Why It Matters Why can overpricing still hurt sellers in strong markets? One of the biggest mistakes sellers make in strong markets is assuming buyers will pay any price simply because demand is high. Overpricing too aggressively can still reduce activity and weaken momentum, even when overall market conditions favor sellers. The strongest pricing results usually happen when sellers create competition naturally instead of trying to force pricing higher from the beginning. Properties that attract multiple serious buyers often achieve stronger pricing because buyers begin competing against each other instead of negotiating only against the seller. Are buyers always being honest during negotiations? Not always. Even in strong markets, buyers often try to create leverage by acting less interested than they really are. Some buyers may claim: pricing is too aggressive market conditions are softening future problems may be developing they are prepared to walk away while still requesting documents, touring the property, or continuing negotiations behind the scenes. That does not mean sellers should ignore legitimate concerns. It means owners should evaluate buyer behavior carefully and separate real market feedback from negotiation tactics. Can sellers become overconfident in strong markets? Absolutely. Seller driven markets can create unrealistic expectations. Owners may begin setting unrealistic pricing expectations or assume every property should create aggressive bidding regardless of tenant quality, lease structure, or future risk. Strong markets still reward well positioned properties. They do not eliminate the importance of pricing discipline, professional marketing, or strategic negotiation management. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners How do you create stronger competition? The goal is not simply listing the property at the highest possible number. The goal is creating enough qualified buyer interest to generate competitive pressure naturally. That starts with presenting the property the right way, professional marketing materials, targeted buyer outreach, organized financial reporting, and clearly communicating the strengths of the property. Properties with stable tenants, strong lease structures, organized leases, financial records, and property information (due diligence), and predictable expenses are usually much easier to market competitively. Should sellers negotiate with only one buyer? Usually not too quickly. In stronger markets, maintaining conversations with multiple buyers often helps sellers keep negotiating power and improves negotiating outcomes. Once sellers negotiate exclusively with one buyer too early, leverage can shift back toward the buyer. That does not mean every buyer should be forced into a bidding war. It means sellers should manage the process carefully and understand how competition affects buyer behavior. What should sellers focus on most in strong markets? Sellers should focus on maintaining leverage without becoming unrealistic. Strong markets create opportunity, but disciplined execution still matters. Owners who combine strong positioning, realistic expectations, professional marketing, and carefully managed negotiations usually perform much better than owners who rely only on aggressive asking prices. Real Deal Insight During the strong seller driven retail market of 2021 and parts of 2022, we consistently saw the strongest pricing results on properties where sellers created organized competitive processes instead of simply raising asking prices aggressively upfront. Properties that generated multiple qualified buyers often achieved stronger pricing and better terms because buyers competed against each other instead of negotiating only against the seller. Owner Self Assessment If your property entered a stronger seller driven market, would buyers feel urgency to compete for the opportunity or confidence that they could wait for pricing to soften later? If you are considering selling and want to understand whether your property could benefit from a strategy that uses buyer competition to improve pricing, reach out directly. I will walk you through how buyers respond to retail opportunities in stronger markets and how to position your property to maximize leverage. Are you creating real buyer urgency or unintentionally reducing it through unrealistic pricing expectations? This concludes the Market Condition Pricing Series. So far, we've discussed how market conditions affect pricing, how buyers behave in different environments, and how sellers can protect leverage throughout the process. In the next series, “Execution and Decision Making,” we will focus on what many retail property owners struggle with most: applying these strategies to their specific property. We'll cover how to choose the right pricing strategy for your asset, why some properties sit on the market while others sell, how buyers actually evaluate retail properties, and how to decide whether selling now or waiting may create a better outcome. Understanding pricing strategy is important. Applying it correctly is what ultimately determines results. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #NNN #ShoppingCenters #StripCenters #CommercialRealEstate #InvestmentSales #CapRates #RetailProperty #LosAngelesCRE #1031Exchange
By Marc Perlof June 19, 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady but signals possible hike before year’s end US stock markets dropped on Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled a possible rate hike before the end of the year. The Fed was widely expected to keep rates at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, where they have remained since December. The decision was unanimously supported by the Fed’s voting committee.  “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East,” the Fed’s open market committee said in the statement...
More Posts