The K-Shaped Economy Is Changing How Buyers Price Retail Properties

Marc Perlof • June 29, 2026

By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy

CA #01489206


June 29, 2026


If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you.


The consumer is still spending, but buyers are not treating all retail income the same. The simple answer is this: retail properties with clean, durable income are getting more attention, while properties with weaker tenants, short leases, or messy income are getting discounted.


The K-shaped economy is now a pricing issue for retail property owners.


What Changed

The K-shaped economy is not just a consumer story anymore. It is becoming a real estate pricing story. A K-shaped economy means some consumers are doing well, while others are under more pressure. Higher income households may keep spending. Lower and middle income households may become more careful with food, gas, rent, credit cards, and discretionary purchases.


Bank of America Institute reported that total credit and debit card spending per household increased 4.8% year over year in April 2026, but spending growth slowed in several discretionary “nice to have” categories.¹


That matters for retail owners. Consumers are still spending, but they are choosing more carefully. That creates a stronger market for some tenants and a weaker market for others.


What is causing it?

Retail sales are still positive. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that advance U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2026 were $763.7 billion, up 0.9% from April 2026 and up 6.9% from May 2025.² That is supportive for retail.

But it does not mean every shopping center, strip center, or Triple Net (NNN) property is protected. CRE Daily recently reported that the K-shaped economy is also creating splits inside real estate asset classes. Investors are becoming more focused on assets tied to stronger demand, demographics, and durable income.³ That is the real change. The market is not just separating retail from other property types. It is separating stronger retail income from weaker retail income.


Why It Matters

How does this affect your property value? Your property value is based on income.

If your tenants pay on time, reimburse NNN charges, renew leases, and serve steady customer demand, buyers have more confidence in your NOI.


If your leases are short, your Common Area Maintenance (CAM) recovery is unclear, your tenants are weak, or your rent is above market, buyers will underwrite more risk. That risk shows up in price.


For example, if your NOI is $250,000 and the buyer uses a 6.25% cap rate, the value is about $4,000,000. If the buyer sees more risk and uses a 6.75% cap rate, that same NOI supports about $3,703,704 in value. That is almost $296,000 of value difference. This is why income quality matters.


How are buyers underwriting retail today? Buyers are looking harder at tenant durability. They want to know if the tenant sells something people need, something people want, or something people cut when money gets tight.


They are looking at lease term, rent level, rent increases, options, NNN reimbursement language, CAM, insurance, taxes, roof, HVAC, parking, and future capital exposure.


They are also asking one simple question. Can this income survive a more selective consumer? If the answer is yes, your property gets stronger attention. If the answer is no, the buyer will either reduce price or move on.


What does this mean for Los Angeles and Southern California owners? Los Angeles retail is not one market. A grocery-anchored center in a dense trade area is not the same as a small strip center with weak parking and short leases. A NNN property with a strong tenant and limited landlord responsibility is not the same as a value add center with deferred maintenance and uncertain leasing. CBRE reported that U.S. retail availability was 4.9% in Q1 2026, with average retail asking rent up 2.4% year over year.4 That shows retail supply remains tight nationally, but local property quality still matters. In Southern California, buyers are not buying the headline. They are buying the income stream.


Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners

What should you do right now?

  1. Identify which tenants benefit from a selective consumer. Daily needs, value, grocery, discount, food, service, medical, and necessity driven tenants should be separated from more discretionary tenants.
  2. Position your property around income durability, not just occupancy. A full center is not enough. Buyers want to know if the tenants can keep paying rent if consumers pull back. 
  3. Price the property based on the weakest part of the income stream

If one tenant has a short lease, above market rent, payment issues, or unclear reimbursements, buyers may use that risk to reprice the whole asset.


Real Deal Insight

This is how deals are being underwritten today. Buyers are separating durable retail income from weaker retail income and pricing each one differently.


Owner Self-Assessment

If a buyer reviewed your leases, rent roll, and NNN recovery today, would they see stable income or future risk?


If you own a strip center, shopping center, NNN property, or retail redevelopment site, I can help you review the income, pressure test buyer underwriting, and identify where value is protected or exposed before you make a sale, refinance, or hold decision.


What would a serious buyer question first if they reviewed your retail property today?


Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.


Sources

1 Bank of America Institute, Consumer Checkpoint, May 2026

2 U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2026

3 CRE Daily, “K-Shaped Economy Drives Asset Class Splits in Real Estate,” June 23, 2026 

4 CBRE, U.S. Retail Figures, Q1 2026



Disclaimer

This post is for information only. It is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Always check with a licensed professional before making decisions.




© 2026 Marc Perlof Group. All rights reserved.


By Marc Perlof • September 25, 2026
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By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 September 21, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) risk is not only about lawsuits and CASp reports. It is also about what can actually be corrected at the property. For California retail property owners, the phrase that matters is “readily achievable.” In plain English, readily achievable means certain accessibility barriers may need to be removed when the work can be done without much difficulty or expense. That does not mean every older retail property must be rebuilt from scratch. It also does not mean an owner can ignore the issue because the building has been that way for years. The real question is practical: what can be fixed, who should fix it, what will it cost, and how could the issue affect the property’s value? Why Readily Achievable Repairs Matter Many retail owners hear “ADA” and assume the issue will be expensive, complicated, and impossible to manage. Sometimes it can be. But not every ADA issue requires a major rebuild. Some items may be smaller and more manageable. Examples may include signage, striping, door hardware, restroom accessories, threshold issues, counter access, parking markings, or path of travel items. Other issues may be more complex, especially when slopes, restrooms, ramps, structural conditions, or site layout are involved. The point is not that every repair is simple. The point is that owners should understand which issues are manageable and which issues may require a larger plan. That knowledge matters because uncertainty can become expensive. If an owner does not know what needs to be fixed, a buyer, tenant, attorney, or plaintiff may define the problem for them. That usually puts the owner in a weaker position. Does Year Built Matter? Year built can matter, but owners should not rely on age alone. Older retail properties may have more accessibility issues because parking, restrooms, entrances, slopes, counters, and paths of travel may not match current standards. But newer properties can still have problems if work was done incorrectly, tenant improvements changed the layout, parking was restriped, restrooms were altered, or access routes were modified. The better question is not only, “When was the property built?” The better question is, “ What is the current condition of the property today? ” A property can be old and still have manageable issues. A property can be newer and still have compliance problems. Owners should avoid assumptions. Common Retail Property Areas That May Create ADA Risk For retail properties, readily achievable repairs often show up in customer facing areas such as parking, access aisles, signage, paths of travel, entrances, doors, restrooms, service counters, seating areas, and common areas. The key issue is not just where the problem is located. The key issue is whether the repair is practical, who controls the area, and whether the lease shifts any responsibility to the tenant. Before making repairs, the owner should understand the property condition, the tenant’s use, the lease language, and the likely cost. Some items may be simple. Others may require design, permits, tenant coordination, or a larger plan. How Readily Achievable Repairs Affect Value Readily achievable repairs affect value because they can turn unknown risk into known cost. If an owner identifies a $10,000, $20,000, or $35,000 issue before a sale, the owner can make a decision. Repair it. Budget for it. Disclose it. Price it. Negotiate around it. Get professional advice on the proper path. But if the issue appears during escrow with no plan, the buyer may assume the risk is larger than it really is. That can lead to a larger price reduction, repair credit, holdback, longer due diligence period, or stronger seller protections. 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This is especially important with restaurants, medical users, dental tenants, service tenants, franchise tenants, and other businesses that serve the public. A tenant may still lease the space. But if the owner has not evaluated accessibility issues early, the tenant may gain negotiation leverage. What Retail Owners Should Do Retail owners should take a practical approach. Identify the customer facing areas of the property. Look at parking, access aisles, entrances, doors, paths of travel, restrooms, counters, signage, and common areas. Review the lease. Understand what belongs to the landlord, what belongs to the tenant, and what may be shared. Get the right guidance before making decisions. ADA and California accessibility claims are technical. Owners should speak with an ADA attorney and qualified accessibility professional before ordering reports, making written statements, or starting repairs. Separate small fixes from larger issues. Some items may be manageable. Others may require design, permits, tenant coordination, or a larger budget. Think about value. The question is not only, “What does this repair cost?” The better question is, “What happens if this issue comes up during a lawsuit, lease negotiation, refinance, or sale?” That is where small problems can become expensive. Common Questions Retail Owners Ask Does readily achievable mean optional? No. Owners should not treat it as optional. It means the work may be required when it can be done without much difficulty or expense. Does an older building get a free pass? No. Older buildings may not need to be rebuilt from scratch, but owners should not assume age eliminates accessibility risk. Should every issue be fixed immediately? Not always. Owners should get proper legal and technical guidance, understand the priority, and create a controlled plan. Final Thought Readily achievable repairs matter because they connect ADA risk to real ownership decisions. For retail property owners, the goal is not panic. The goal is control. If the owner understands the issues early, the owner can decide what to repair, what to budget for, what to discuss with counsel, what to negotiate with the tenant, and what may affect value. If you are unsure whether an ADA repair is a small fix or a larger value issue, I can help you look at how it may affect leasing, NOI, and sale risk. If the owner waits until a lawsuit, tenant demand, buyer inspection, or escrow issue, the owner may have fewer options and less leverage. In next week’s blog, “How ADA Risk Affects Retail Property Value, Leasing, and Sale Negotiations,” we will discuss how accessibility issues can affect pricing, buyer confidence, NOI, lease terms, escrow, and final net proceeds. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #RetailPropertyOwners #ADACompliance #CASp #PropertyValue #CommercialProperty #MarcRetailGuy
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