Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • February 16, 2024
A group of people are walking down a tiled floor.

NRF: January retail sales are ‘great’ start to new year


Consumers kept shopping in January. Retail sales in January nearly matched December’s busy holiday spending and rose significantly year-over-year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released by the NRF. 

A chipotle restaurant is located in a residential area.

Chipotle Speeds Toward Even Greater Heights


You could say Chipotle had an enviable problem. The brand’s digital growth out of COVID soared rewards membership over 35 million and loaded up the backline to the point where stores became unbalanced in staffing. In the summer of 2022 or so, Chipotle launched what it dubbed “Project Square One.” As it sounds, the notion was to return to basics on the in-store experience that helped Chipotle define a category over three decades ago.

The outside of an arby 's restaurant with picnic tables and umbrellas.

Report: Inspire Brands Could Go Public in $20 Billion Valuation


According to a Wednesday report from Bloomberg, Inspire Brands-backer Roark Capital has held preliminary discussions with potential advisers to take the multi-concept giant public. An initial public offering would arrive in late 2024 or 2025, depending on market conditions, sources told the publication, with Inspire commanding a value of roughly $20 billion. 

An aerial view of a city with lots of buildings and streets.

15-story hotel planned next to new L.A. Clippers arena in Inglewood


Just south of Intuit Dome, where the L.A. Clippers are scheduled to begin playing games next season, Los Angeles-based Arya Group, Inc. is planning a mid-rise hotel development which would rank among the tallest buildings in Inglewood. The proposed project, slated for a site at 3820 W. 102nd Street, calls for razing a low-rise commercial building to make way for a new 15-story, approximately 310,000-square-foot building featuring a 174-room hotel, 3,255 square feet of offices, 6,537 square feet of hotel restaurant space, 1,310 square feet of lounge space, a 4,000-square-foot private club, and 4,000 square feet of spa and amenity space. 

An artist 's impression of a burger king restaurant at night.

Thanks to $400M Plan, Burger King Sees Guests Returning to Restaurants


The chain reported low-single-digit traffic growth in Q4, which was the first positive increase since Q2 2021. Also, U.S. same-store sales rose 6.4 percent, lapping 5 percent growth in the year-ago period. For the year, comps lifted 7.5 percent, rolling over 2.2 percent in 2022. Burger King franchisees are making more money as well. Average profitability per restaurant increased nearly 50 percent in 2023, moving from $140,000 to more than $205,000.

The front of a kroger store with a blue sky in the background

Kroger promises to lower prices, invest in stores following merger


The Kroger Co. has detailed its commitment to customers as it faces regulatory scrutiny over its proposed acquisition of rival Albertsons Cos. The supermarket giant said, consistent with its previous approach to mergers, it will lower prices following its merger with Albertsons. It plans to invest $500 million to lower prices following the close of the deal — starting day one.  It also will also invest $1.3 billion to improve Albertsons' stores. 

Two security guards are standing next to each other on a sidewalk in front of a ups truck.

Legion averages 100 “engagements” a day during first month of downtown deployment


The newly hired private security company patrolling Downtown Santa Monica reported more than 3,000 interactions during its first month on patrol and while local businesses say the systemic problems persist, some say they’ve seen signs of improvement recently. During the first meeting of the Downtown Santa Monica Inc., (DTSM) Board of Directors for 2024, security company Legion Corporation, presented a report on its first month of operations.

A brick building with a red and white sign that says snipple on it.

Shipley Do-Nuts’ Texas Roots Blossom into National Success


He worked as the chief executive of Korean fast-casual Bonchon for four and a half years and in marketing roles at Wingstop for the same amount of time. One of his biggest memories—or nightmares, if you think about it—was the cyclical nature of the chicken market, where operators live and die by what the price is on any given day, week, or month.

A shell gas station with a car parked in front of it.

Shell to acquire 45 convenience stores in New Mexico


Shell is expanding its U.S. retail footprint. The company has signed an agreement  to acquire Brewer Oil Company’s (BOC) retail division, which includes 45 fuel and convenience store sites in New Mexico. The acquisition also includes traditional fueling stations and cardlocks for fleet vehicles.

A man in a suit and white shirt is smiling for the camera.

World’s Largest Franchisee Flynn Group Explores Sale


Sources told Reuters that the majority interest could be valued at more than $5 billion, including debt. The company is working with Bank of America on the sales process. Flynn Group, founded in 1999 by industry veteran Greg Flynn, is the largest operator of Applebee’s, Arby’s, and Pizza Hut, and also owns hundreds of stores for Taco Bell, Panera, and Wendy’s. Altogether, the company oversees more than 2,600 units and earns more than $4.5 billion in annual sales. 

A dutch bros store with a truck parked in front of it.

Positioned for Success: Retail, dining segments to watch in 2024


Amid price hikes, rising interest rates and mounting consumer debt,  the retail industry did pretty well in 2023 — certainly a lot better than some experts had predicted — as consumers continued to shop. As to what to expect this year, foot traffic analytics firm Placer.ai has dived into its rich treasure chest of data to find which segments are best positioned for success in 2024. 

By Marc Perlof March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....
By Marc Perlof March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates
By Marc Perlof March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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