Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • February 23, 2024
A banner for weekly commercial real estate news recap
A person is inserting a discover card into an atm machine

Capital One-Discover merger could put a bigger squeeze on credit card users, experts warn

 

Capital One’s $35.3 billion deal to buy Discover is a long way from being completed. But consumer advocates and some lawmakers are already raising questions about how the proposed merger could affect credit-card users — many of whom are already under pressure from high interest rates and record debts. 

A shoe store with a round bench in the middle of the room.

Philly Could Snag First Michael Jordan-Branded World Of Flight Store In The U.S.


Nike has targeted Philadelphia as the first known U.S. market for a retail concept store dedicated to its Michael Jordan brand.The activewear giant is eyeing 1617 Walnut St. as the site of a Jordan World of Flight, the Philadelphia Business Journal first reported. The report was backed up by city records indicatingMBH Architects had applied for final permission to change signage and the facade of the building to make way for the retail venture. 

A man is standing on a stage in front of a large screen that says go to foods.

Auntie Anne’s and Cinnabon parent company Focus Brands rebrands to GoTo Foods


Auntie Anne’s, Cinnabon, and Jamba parent company Focus Brands announced Tuesday morning the company’s rebranding to GoTo Foods. GoTo Foods’ new name and identity represents its “continued transformation into a platform company,” and will also be the start of a new era of growth and change for the Atlanta-based foodservice company. 

A mcdonald 's sign against a blue sky with clouds

Fast-Food Franchising Stands Up to Economic Headwinds


It’s been a common theme in recent years for franchising to prove resilient during whatever rocky backdrop was in order. Last year, the International Franchise Association’s annual Economic Outlook report revealed job and unit growth outpacing 2019 levels. And of the myriad franchising fields, quick-service restaurants, along with “service-based industries,” projected as the highest-growth vehicles going forward.

A mcdonald 's sign next to a cosmos sign

McDonald's vs CosMc's: 5 Major Differences


If you've been at all tuned in to the world of fast food in the past six months, you've probably heard lots of talk about a chain called CosMc's. This brand-new spinoff concept was created by one of the world's preeminent fast-food chains: McDonald's. So, as you can probably imagine, the buzz around CosMc's has been pretty wild.

A billboard for popeye 's wings go is above a building

Popeyes Sets Sights on 800 New Locations, and a Lot More Wings


Restaurant Brands International last Thursday became the latest group to outline a massive growth agenda. In this case, the Burger King, Popeyes, Firehouse Subs, and Tim Hortons owner shared it would reach 40,000 restaurants, $60 billion in systemwide sales, and $3.2 billion in adjusted operating income by 2028. That suggests average annual same-store sales growth of 3 percent-plus, over 5 percent net unit growth, and systemwide sales expansion north of 8 percent.

A grocery outlet store is now open in the rain.

Grocery Outlet Holding to buy United Grocery Outlet


Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is acquiring United Grocery Outlet, a discount grocer operating in the Southeastern United States, the company reported on Friday. United Grocery Outlet’s 40 stores and distribution center will enable the grocer to expand into Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia.

A man in a wheelchair is standing in front of a counter in a restaurant.

Starbucks Creates New Store Design to Aid Guests and Workers with Disabilities


Starbucks on Friday announced new store design standards that provide better access to employees and customers with disabilities. Called the Inclusive Spaces Framework, the guidelines will become the norm for all new and renovated U.S. stores. “At Starbucks, we have challenged ourselves to imagine what’s possible when we take a closer look at the many ways our partners and customers interact with us and experience our stores every day,” Katie Young, senior vice president of store operations, said in a statement. “Building and scaling an Inclusive Store Framework is central to our mission of connection and will lead to greater access for all.” 

A shoe carnival store with cars parked in front of it

Shoe Carnival acquires Midwestern shoe retailer


Shoe Carnival has acquired a Midwest footwear chain, expanding its store presence. The footwear retailer has acquired Rogan Shoes, a work and family footwear company with 28 locations in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois. The purchase price was put at $45 million, subject to further adjustments, with the transaction funded entirely with cash on hand. 

An aerial view of a bank building with a lot of windows.

PNC Bank To Invest $1 Billion To Expand, Revamp US Retail Network

 

PNC Bank plans to open more than 100 retail banking centers, primarily in the nation's Sun Belt, as well as renovate more than 1,200 existing locations in its national real estate portfolio through 2028.The proposed expansion by the Pittsburgh-based bank, expected to cost about $1 billion, comes as other banks have exited some of its less desirable retail branches throughout the United States.

By Marc Perlof March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....
By Marc Perlof March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates
By Marc Perlof March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
More Posts