Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • September 11, 2026
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Morning Consult: Five Below, other retailers among 25 fastest-growing brands

Five Below is one of the fastest-growing brands in the U.S.

The tween and teen extreme value retailer is the No. 10 fastest-growing brand overall and the only retailer to crack the top 10 in Morning Consult’s “Fastest Growing Brands 2026” report. The study ranks the top 25 brands according to year-over-year purchasing intent. A re-launched, decades-old soda brand, Mr. Pibb, ranked No. 1. 

Five Below’s purchasing consideration increased 3.2 points this year, according to the report. (The retailer recently reported that its second-quarter sales rose 22.9% to $1.26 billion...)

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 4.8%, Highest Since 2023


Interest rates are on the rise across the yield curve. The 10-year Treasury note closed at a high yield of
4.8%, a level not seen in nearly three years and more than 60 basis points above estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), while the 2-year Treasury yield is at a near 2-year high of 4.4%. If rates remain this high above projections, it would add an additional $2.3 trillion to the debt over the next decade.

Last month, the 30-year bond reached a 19-year record yield of 5.3% and remain nearly that high despite the Treasury Department’s August announcement to increase the size of its buyback program...


An elevated outdoor view of a modern shopping mall promenade with manicured greenery, palm trees, and pedestrians.

Signage can affect customer behavior – here’s how


Business signage can directly influence whether consumers notice, trust and purchase from a retailer.

More than eight in 10 (84%) surveyed U.S. consumers say signage impacts their decision to purchase from a business. In addition, four in 10 (39%) respondents to a new national survey conducted on behalf of sign franchise Signarama by The Harris Poll have entered a business solely because of its sign and 26% say a business's signage has directly encouraged them to recommend the business to others...


The American flag waves against a bright blue sky between towering glass skyscrapers, viewed from a low angle.

Costco August sales up 9.9% amid higher gas prices, digital growth


Costco Wholesale Corp. maintained momentum in August as its average worldwide transaction increased, boosted by higher gas prices. 


The membership warehouse giant reported that its net sales increased 9.9% to $23.70 billion in August. For the 16-week fourth quarter, net sales increased 11.3% to $93.9 billion.



Total company comparable sales rose 8.4% in August. Comp sales increased 9% in the U.S., and 4% in Canada. Other international comps rose 9.5%. Digitally-enabled comp sales surged 17.5%...



A flat, single-story retail building with a

Target opening eight stores in July and August — here are the locations

Target Corp. is celebrating the opening of eight new stores this summer — including its 320th location in California.



The openings are part of the 20 new locations that Target plans to open this year, and also reflect the retailer’s commitment to building more than 300 stores over the next decade. Target is also leaning into larger footprints. Three of the new locations top the chain’s 125,000-sq.-ft. store average...

The main entrance of the NuHAA building, featuring a modern glass and stone facade, at sunset.

The Data Center Index


Which communities are fighting data centers — scored from what their governments actually did, not what they said.


Two years of council-meeting transcripts plus a curated ledger of enacted denials, moratoria, and bans. Before a moratorium makes headlines, the opposition is already in the council record — documented, timestamped, and building. This page is the public preview: the map, the four bands, the ten strongest records. The rest is a 20-minute call...


Jersey Mike’s is Chasing More Customers, Not More Pricing


Jersey Mike's has over 1,600 restaurants in its pipeline.


Jersey Mike’s has a clear destination for its restaurants. The sandwich giant wants average unit volumes to climb from roughly $1.4 million to $2 million.


Its path there is starting with transactions.

Same-store sales rose 2.3 percent in the second quarter, accelerating from 1.7 percent in Q1. The increase was driven primarily by transactions, and momentum carried into the third quarter, with comps tracking above 3 percent at the time of Jersey Mike’s inaugural earnings call on Wednesday...



Treasury Yield Risk Keeps CRE Borrowing Costs Elevated


GlobeSt.com says the biggest rate question for commercial real estate is shifting toward the long end of the yield curve. In its analysis of Treasury yield risks, the publication describes a market where inflation, federal borrowing, and corporate issuance can keep financing expensive even if policy expectations change. That matters because long-term Treasury rates feed directly into CRE debt pricing and return requirements...

Viral Video Claims Santa Monica's New Digital Billboards Track Your Phone, Operator Says They Don't

SANTA MONICA, CA — A video circulating among Santa Monica residents claims the city's newly installed Third Street Promenade digital displays automatically connect with pedestrians' smartphones and can cause advertising shown on the signs to subsequently appear on their phones.


The company operating the displays says that is not how they work.

Orange Barrel Media Vice President of West Coast Development Clay Collett told Patch Tuesday that the Santa Monica displays contain no technology capable of detecting, tracking or communicating with nearby smartphones — and collect no data from people passing them...

Scooter’s Has a Role to Play in the Drive-Thru Coffee Rush

As Dutch Bros and 7 Brew bid over sites, Black Rock Coffee Bar navigates publicly traded life, and Starbucks regains traction after years of choppiness, Scooter’s Coffee has steadily expanded in a category suddenly flush with growth brands.

Scooter’s had 555 of its drive-thru-focused stores at the start of 2023. But that calendar proved a major catapult, with the company adding a net of 195 venues to exit at 650 (729 of which were franchised). Then, in 2024, Scooter’s grew by net 99 locations (96 franchised) and followed with development of 57 this past year, finishing at 906 (882 franchised and 24 affiliate run)...


By Marc Perlof • October 26, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 26, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. A lease guaranty can become less useful if the tenant changes entities, the guaranty expires, or a later agreement releases a guarantor. That can affect your income security, refinancing options, and property value. The main owner decision is whether the guaranty still supports your planned hold, refinance, renewal, or sale. Why Should You Review a Lease Guarantee Every Few Years? Many owners review the lease when they buy the property and do not examine the guaranty again until there is a tenant problem or planned sale. During that time, the tenant may be acquired, reorganized, assigned to another entity, or operating under a guaranty that is capped, reduced, or approaching expiration. A review every few years can help you identify those issues while you still have time to respond. Annual Lease Guarantee Review Checklist 1. Confirm the Current Tenant and Every Guarantor Start with the exact legal name of the tenant currently responsible for the lease. Then identify every company or individual that signed a guaranty. Do not rely on the brand name displayed at the property. The company on the sign may not be the legal tenant or the entity supporting the rent. Confirm whether the guaranty comes from the national parent ompany, a subsidiary, an affiliate, a franchise operator, a location-specific LLC, an individual, or more than one guarantor. 2. Check What the Guaranty Covers and When It Ends A signed guaranty may not cover every lease obligation for the entire lease term. Determine whether it is full, capped, reduced over time, limited to certain lease years, or restricted to specific obligations. It may cover base rent but exclude additional rent, property expenses, repair obligations, or legal costs. Compare the guaranty term with the remaining lease term. Do not assume that a lease extension automatically extends the guaranty. 3. Review Later Documents and Ownership Changes The original lease and guaranty may have been changed by later documents. Review amendments, extensions, assignments, assumption agreements, landlord consents, estoppel certificates, ownership change notices, and any guarantor releases or replacements. A tenant may continue using the same brand while the legal tenant, ownership structure, or guarantor changes behind the scenes. When the relationship among the tenant, guarantor, parent company, and affiliates is unclear, request an organizational chart or entity structure. The chart can explain how the companies are connected, but the lease and guaranty documents still determine who is legally responsible. Qualified legal counsel should confirm unclear obligations. 4. Review the Guarantor’s Current Financial Support A guaranty is only as useful as the company or person behind it. Depending on your lease rights and the information available, review current financial information, rent payment history, operating locations, recent closures, ownership changes, and whether the guarantor still appears to own meaningful assets. The goal is not to complete a full credit analysis. It is to determine whether the support behind your rent is still consistent with what you believed when you bought the property or negotiated the lease. 5. Compare the Guaranty with Your Ownership Plan The value of a guaranty depends partly on what you plan to do with the property. If you expect to hold for several years, determine whether the guaranty lasts through your planned ownership period. If you think you are going to refinance, renew, or sell, consider whether the guaranty will still provide meaningful support at that time. You should also consider what happens if the tenant leaves. Contract rent, market rent, vacancy downtime, leasing commissions, tenant improvement costs, repairs, and replacement demand can all affect NOI, capital needs, and net sale proceeds. The central question is whether the guaranty, the underlying real estate, or both support your next major ownership decision. Owner Self Assessment Could you clearly explain who guarantees your largest tenant’s rent, what the guaranty covers, when it ends, and whether it still supports your ownership plan? Reviewing your lease guaranty every few years can help you identify income, financing, vacancy, and value risks before they limit your options. Contact me for the expanded Retail Lease Guarantee Review Checklist . It includes a more detailed document list, guarantor review questions, financial and ownership checks, vacancy and replacement cost considerations, and a one page owner summary you can use before a refinance, renewal, hold, or sale decision. Are you relying on a guaranty that will still provide meaningful support when you refinance, renew the lease, or sell the property? Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #NetLease #LeaseGuarantee #CorporateGuarantee #TenantCredit #PropertyValue #RetailInvesting #InvestmentSales #MarcRetailGuy #MarcPerlof
By Marc Perlof • October 23, 2026
How the ‘Walmart effect’ is major warning sign for the American economy Walmart may be the siren before an economic storm - at least that's what one financial expert believes. Economist Jim Paulsen calls his theory the "Walmart Recession Signal" (WRS). When Walmart's stock goes up and shares of luxury companies in the S&P Global Luxury Index go down, it's a sign that the country may be headed for a recession...
By Marc Perlof • October 21, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 October 21, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. As of September 30, 2026, California has passed AB 2418,² a new law aimed at reducing certain delays in commercial plan checks and inspections. For retail property owners, that matters because every extra month a tenant waits for approvals can mean another month before the space opens and starts producing rent. AB 2418 applies statewide, including cities such as Los Angeles, Inglewood, Malibu, Santa Monica and more.¹ What Does AB 2418 Change? For qualifying commercial permit applications, cities and counties must provide an estimated timeframe for determining whether a complete application meets permit standards.¹ The law also creates another option when certain plan checks take too long. An excessive delay generally means the city takes, or says it expects to take, more than 30 business days to complete the first structural building safety plan check after receiving a complete application.¹ If the city returns the plans for corrections, the law also looks at the total review time. If the initial review plus the review of the corrected plans goes beyond 60 days , that can also qualify as an excessive delay.¹ If there is an excessive delay, the applicant can ask the city or county to use a private entity to perform the plan check. If the city cannot provide a qualified outside reviewer, the applicant may be able to hire an approved private professional and pay the cost directly. ¹ That professional must meet the law’s licensing and certification requirements. Does This Apply to Every Retail Tenant? No. This is an important limit. The private plan check portion of AB 2418 applies to qualifying tenant improvements in buildings that are generally: One to three stories No more than 40 feet to an occupied floor Group B Business occupancy Limited to an occupant load of 49 or fewer Not a health facility or public building¹ That means a typical Group M retail store should not assume it qualifies for the private plan check provision. However, AB 2418 includes another rule that can be more relevant to traditional retail. For certain completed commercial projects, local building departments must conduct an inspection within 10 business days after receiving notice that the permitted work is complete. This provision covers several occupancy groups, including Group B and Group M.¹ That could matter when construction is finished but a retail tenant is waiting for an inspection before it can move closer to opening. How Could Delays Affect Your NOI? A signed lease does not necessarily mean the owner is collecting rent. Assume a tenant will pay $10,000 per month once rent commencement occurs. If permitting or inspections push that date back by three months, the owner could have $30,000 of delayed rent, depending on the lease terms. During that period, the owner may still be paying taxes, insurance, utilities, debt service, and other property expenses. This is why permitting should be part of lease underwriting, not something considered only after the lease is signed. Why Should Medical and Dental Owners Pay Attention? Many professional office, medical, and dental uses may fall within Group B occupancy depending on the specific use, building, and patient conditions. That means AB 2418 may be more relevant to certain medical or dental tenant improvements than laws aimed specifically at traditional retailers. But owners should not assume a particular medical or dental project qualifies. The project's architect and local building department should confirm the occupancy classification and eligibility. What Should Retail Property Owners Do? Before signing a lease involving tenant improvements, confirm the property's occupancy classification and expected permit timeline. Review exactly when rent starts under the lease. If commencement depends on permits, construction, opening, or final approvals, delays can shift meaningful income into a later period. For projects that may qualify for AB 2418, ask the tenant's architect and local building department whether the new plan check or inspection rules could apply. The main owner decision is to understand the permitting risk before you agree to the final lease terms. Owner Self Assessment If your next tenant's opening is delayed by 60 or 90 days, how much rent and expense reimbursement would you lose before the property reaches its expected NOI? Final Takeaway AB 2418 may shorten certain commercial plan check and inspection delays, but owners need to understand which parts of the law actually apply to their tenant and property. If you're reviewing a lease, tenant improvement plan, or vacancy where permitting could delay rent, call or DM me. I can help you compare the expected downtime, income, and effect on property value before you make the decision. Sources ¹ California AB 2418 bill text and history ² Governor of California announcement Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #CaliforniaRetailRealEstate #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailProperty #AB2418 #RetailLeasing #CommercialPermits #TenantImprovements #PropertyOwners #CaliforniaRealEstate
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