Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 27, 2026
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Global forecasting group sees U.S. inflation at 4.2% this year, much higher than Fed estimate

The Iran war and its impact on the global energy market will keep headline U.S. inflation this year well above the Federal Reserve’s projections, possibly necessitating policy action, according to a key global policy group.



In its periodic update of economic conditions, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast all-items inflation in the U.S. to be at 4.2% for 2026...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Datassential report reveals top 25 emerging restaurant chains

When it comes to the next generation of restaurant growth, focused concepts are scaling faster and global cuisines is continuing to gain momentum.

That’s according to Datassential’s Top 25 Emerging Chains report, which highlights the restaurant concepts that are rapidly growing across the United States. The ranking is part of the food and beverage company's flagship Datassential 500 report, which tracks performance and innovation across the most influential restaurant brands nationwide. (Top 10 emerging chains listed at end of article...)

Retail Productivity Rises as Luxury Malls Outpace Sector

Luxury Malls See Strong Sales Growth



Retail productivity at leading US malls is surging, especially at luxury-focused centers, reports Globe St. Simon Property Group’s assets, such as Roosevelt Field near New York City, report occupancy rates above 96% and sales reaching up to $1,250 PSF. Brookfield’s GGP division also saw sales per square foot at premier properties rise 60% since 2019. These gains are largely attributed to affluent consumers, who now account for nearly half of all retail spending...

Is a US recession coming? Odds jump as hidden cracks hit the economy


US recession 2026 prediction explained: Worries about a possible US recession are growing, as new data and forecasts suggest the economy may be under more pressure than it appears. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently pushed back on concerns about stagflation, economists say risks are rising due to global tensions and signs of weakness in key areas, as per a report...

Pharmacy Closures Reshape Retail Real Estate


Pharmacy closures are surging across the US, led by Walgreens, CVS, and Rite Aid. The sector’s contraction has resulted in over 2,000 sites shuttered since 2022, with more to follow. Economic pressures and shifting consumer behavior are pushing chains to trim their footprints, leaving prime corners and intersections vacant in neighborhoods nationwide, reports Urban Land...

Luxury Retailer Reversal Keeps Stores Open


Reversal on Planned Closures


According to CoStar, Saks Global will keep three luxury stores it had planned to close after talks with landlord Simon Property. The affected locations include Saks Fifth Avenue stores in Palm Desert, California, and Sarasota, Florida. The decision also keeps the Neiman Marcus store in White Plains, New York, open.


Earlier, Saks Global planned to close these stores in May as part of a broader effort. The company aimed to exit roughly two dozen Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus locations...

Net Lease Escalations Reshape Market

Escalation Clauses Replace Flat Rents


Net lease deals, once known for predictability and flat rents, are shifting toward more flexible agreements, reports Globe St. Recent leases now include regular escalation clauses, reflecting broader market volatility and efforts to hedge against inflation. Instead of “set and forget” income, net lease owners are underwriting deals more cautiously and adjusting for evolving risk profiles...

Publix has massive store planned for Miami

Publix is set to build another multi-story grocery store in Miami, 
according to the Miami New Times.

The 55,000-square-foot store will be located at 11380 Biscayne Blvd. and will include two levels of parking and a liquor store. The parking garage will feature 232 spaces. The Lakeland, Fla.-based grocer has filed a pre-application with Miami-Dade County for a site plan review, South Florida Business Journal reports. Allequez Architecture is designing the project...

Report: Nothing Bundt Cakes to be Acquired for $2 Billion

Global private equity firm KKR has agreed to buy Nothing Bundt Cakes for over $2 billion, according to 
the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.


Reuters reported in late October that parent company Roark Capital—also the owner of Inspire Brands, GoTo Foods, Subway, and Dave’s Hot Chicken—was exploring a sale of the dessert brand. Roark purchased Nothing Bundt Cakes in 2021 from Levine Leichtman Capital Partners.

The publication previously stated the brand expects to generate $120 million in EBITDA this year...


Slim Chickens Emphasizes Discipline to Power Next Phase of Growth

Mattress seller Sleep Number has sounded the alarm that it may be forced to file for bankruptcy, possibly joining the growing number of retailers that have sought Chapter 11 protection this year.

The Minneapolis-based company, with a fleet of 600 stores, issued the warning in a recent securities filing after reporting fourth-quarter earnings. The retailer said in its 10-K that if it can't secure sufficient financing, it "could be forced to terminate, significantly curtail or cease our operations, pursue strategic alternatives or commence a case under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code..."


By Marc Perlof March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....
By Marc Perlof March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates
By Marc Perlof March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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