Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 27, 2026
A banner for weekly commercial real estate news recap
A car is parked in front of a sign that says 223

Global forecasting group sees U.S. inflation at 4.2% this year, much higher than Fed estimate

The Iran war and its impact on the global energy market will keep headline U.S. inflation this year well above the Federal Reserve’s projections, possibly necessitating policy action, according to a key global policy group.



In its periodic update of economic conditions, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast all-items inflation in the U.S. to be at 4.2% for 2026...

The front of an aldi store with a sign in front of it.

Datassential report reveals top 25 emerging restaurant chains

When it comes to the next generation of restaurant growth, focused concepts are scaling faster and global cuisines is continuing to gain momentum.

That’s according to Datassential’s Top 25 Emerging Chains report, which highlights the restaurant concepts that are rapidly growing across the United States. The ranking is part of the food and beverage company's flagship Datassential 500 report, which tracks performance and innovation across the most influential restaurant brands nationwide. (Top 10 emerging chains listed at end of article...)

An elevated outdoor view of a modern shopping mall promenade with manicured greenery, palm trees, and pedestrians.

Retail Productivity Rises as Luxury Malls Outpace Sector

Luxury Malls See Strong Sales Growth



Retail productivity at leading US malls is surging, especially at luxury-focused centers, reports Globe St. Simon Property Group’s assets, such as Roosevelt Field near New York City, report occupancy rates above 96% and sales reaching up to $1,250 PSF. Brookfield’s GGP division also saw sales per square foot at premier properties rise 60% since 2019. These gains are largely attributed to affluent consumers, who now account for nearly half of all retail spending...

The American flag waves against a bright blue sky between towering glass skyscrapers, viewed from a low angle.

Is a US recession coming? Odds jump as hidden cracks hit the economy


US recession 2026 prediction explained: Worries about a possible US recession are growing, as new data and forecasts suggest the economy may be under more pressure than it appears. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently pushed back on concerns about stagflation, economists say risks are rising due to global tensions and signs of weakness in key areas, as per a report...

A flat, single-story retail building with a

Pharmacy Closures Reshape Retail Real Estate


Pharmacy closures are surging across the US, led by Walgreens, CVS, and Rite Aid. The sector’s contraction has resulted in over 2,000 sites shuttered since 2022, with more to follow. Economic pressures and shifting consumer behavior are pushing chains to trim their footprints, leaving prime corners and intersections vacant in neighborhoods nationwide, reports Urban Land...

The main entrance of the NuHAA building, featuring a modern glass and stone facade, at sunset.

Luxury Retailer Reversal Keeps Stores Open


Reversal on Planned Closures


According to CoStar, Saks Global will keep three luxury stores it had planned to close after talks with landlord Simon Property. The affected locations include Saks Fifth Avenue stores in Palm Desert, California, and Sarasota, Florida. The decision also keeps the Neiman Marcus store in White Plains, New York, open.


Earlier, Saks Global planned to close these stores in May as part of a broader effort. The company aimed to exit roughly two dozen Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus locations...

A modern two-story commercial office building with a stone-accented entrance at dusk, seen from a paved parking lot.

Net Lease Escalations Reshape Market

Escalation Clauses Replace Flat Rents


Net lease deals, once known for predictability and flat rents, are shifting toward more flexible agreements, reports Globe St. Recent leases now include regular escalation clauses, reflecting broader market volatility and efforts to hedge against inflation. Instead of “set and forget” income, net lease owners are underwriting deals more cautiously and adjusting for evolving risk profiles...

A green Publix Food & Pharmacy sign mounted on a white and beige building exterior against a blue sky.

Publix has massive store planned for Miami

Publix is set to build another multi-story grocery store in Miami, 
according to the Miami New Times.

The 55,000-square-foot store will be located at 11380 Biscayne Blvd. and will include two levels of parking and a liquor store. The parking garage will feature 232 spaces. The Lakeland, Fla.-based grocer has filed a pre-application with Miami-Dade County for a site plan review, South Florida Business Journal reports. Allequez Architecture is designing the project...

Two bundt cakes on small plates: one with chocolate drizzle, one with caramel drizzle, with cinnamon sticks nearby.

Report: Nothing Bundt Cakes to be Acquired for $2 Billion

Global private equity firm KKR has agreed to buy Nothing Bundt Cakes for over $2 billion, according to 
the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.


Reuters reported in late October that parent company Roark Capital—also the owner of Inspire Brands, GoTo Foods, Subway, and Dave’s Hot Chicken—was exploring a sale of the dessert brand. Roark purchased Nothing Bundt Cakes in 2021 from Levine Leichtman Capital Partners.

The publication previously stated the brand expects to generate $120 million in EBITDA this year...


Interior of a casual restaurant featuring blue chairs, red accents, brick walls, and a

Slim Chickens Emphasizes Discipline to Power Next Phase of Growth

Slim Chickens is entering a new phase of growth, and newly appointed president and COO Christina Vaughan is working to ensure the brand scales with discipline.


The fast casual entered 2026 with more than 300 units worldwide and over 1,000 in development. Target markets include Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and California, along with international regions across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East...

By Marc Perlof August 7, 2026
10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.625% — Data Talk The 10-year yield declined 0.059 percentage point to 4.625% today. The price rose 14/32 to 98 1/32. --Yield is down for two consecutive trading days --Yield is down 0.118 percentage point over the last two trading days --Largest two-day yield decline since Tuesday, March 31, 2026 --Yield is off 0.118 percentage point from its 52-week high of 4.743% hit Friday, July 31, 2026...
By Marc Perlof August 3, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 August 3, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. When a retail property owner hears that a tenant wants a tenant improvement allowance, the first reaction is often about the amount: “How much are they asking for?” That matters, but it is not the first question an owner should ask. The better question is: Does investing this money make financial sense for this property and this lease? A tenant improvement allowance, commonly called TI, is money the landlord agrees to contribute toward improvements to the tenant’s space. Depending on the deal, that money may help pay for flooring, walls, electrical work, plumbing, HVAC, restrooms, lighting, or other improvements. TI is common in many retail leases. But that does not mean every TI request is a good investment. For the property owner, TI is capital being invested into a lease. The return depends on the rent, lease term, tenant strength, cost of vacancy, and what happens to the space in the future. That is the real underwriting question. The Wrong Question: How Much TI Is Market? Owners often ask, “What is the market TI allowance?” There is nothing wrong with understanding the market. The problem is treating a market number as an automatic answer. Two tenants asking for the same TI allowance can create completely different investments for the landlord. One tenant may sign a long term lease, pay strong rent, provide a solid guaranty, and build improvements that could be useful to a future tenant. Another tenant may want the same TI allowance but offer weaker rent, limited financial strength, a shorter lease term, and highly specialized improvements that could be expensive to remove later. The TI amount may be the same. The risk is not. That is why TI should never be reviewed by itself. TI Is Part of the Entire Lease Investment A landlord should look at the entire economic package. That includes total TI dollars, starting rent, annual rent increases, lease term, free rent, leasing commissions, tenant credit, personal or corporate guaranties, options to extend, rent during option periods, reuse value of the improvements, and the cost and risk of continued vacancy. For example, an owner may agree to a larger TI allowance because the tenant is signing a longer lease with stronger rent increases and a strong guaranty. In another deal, even a smaller TI allowance may be too risky because the tenant is financially weak or the lease does not give the owner enough time to recover the investment. The TI number alone does not tell you whether the deal is good. The full lease economics do. Saying No to TI Can Also Be Expensive Some owners take the position that they will never pay TI. That may feel financially conservative, but it is not always the lowest risk decision. Vacancy has a cost. An empty space may mean lost base rent, lost NNN reimbursements, continued ownership expenses, maintenance, security concerns, and uncertainty about when the next qualified tenant will appear. If an owner refuses a reasonable TI investment and the space remains vacant for another year, the cost of that vacancy may be greater than the TI allowance that could have completed the lease. This does not mean an owner should accept every TI request. But saying no to TI does not always mean the owner avoids the cost. A tenant may agree to take the space without a TI allowance but require lower rent, more free rent, or other concessions instead. The Existing Condition of the Space Matters Not all retail spaces start from the same position. A second-generation space may already have usable flooring, restrooms, electrical systems, HVAC, lighting, plumbing, and a functional layout. A tenant may need only limited changes before opening. A shell space or heavily damaged space may require much more capital. The type of improvements also matters. A specialized user may require a buildout that has little value to the next tenant. A more general retail buildout may have broader reuse value. Owners should ask a simple question: If this tenant leaves, what am I left with? If the improvements are likely to help lease the space again, part of the TI investment may create longer term value. If the improvements are highly specialized, the owner may face another large capital expense when the tenant leaves. That risk should be considered before the lease is signed, not after the tenant moves out. Lease Term Matters A larger TI investment generally requires enough lease term and income to justify the risk. If an owner spends significant money improving a space but the lease term is too short, the owner may not have enough time to recover the investment before facing another lease negotiation. A longer lease does not automatically make a bad TI deal good. The owner still needs to understand how much capital is being invested and how much income the lease is expected to produce. This is where owners can make mistakes by focusing only on the monthly rent. A lease can produce attractive rent and still require a large upfront investment. The question is not only how much rent will be collected. It is how much capital and risk were required to create that income. Tenant Strength Changes the Risk The same TI investment can have very different risk depending on the tenant. An established tenant with strong financials may create one risk profile. A new business with limited operating history may create another. This does not mean a landlord should never invest in a new business. It means the investment should match the risk. If the landlord is putting substantial money into the space, the owner should pay closer attention to the lease term, security deposit, guaranty, rent structure, TI payment process, and what happens if the tenant never opens or defaults early. A landlord investing heavily into a tenant’s space is doing more than filling a vacancy. The landlord is taking investment risk. That risk should be priced and structured accordingly. TI Should Be Compared with the Cost of Doing Nothing One of the most useful exercises for an owner is comparing the TI request against the cost of staying vacant. For example, assume a 2,000 square foot retail space can be leased for $4.00 per square foot per month. That is $8,000 per month, or $96,000 per year, before expenses. Now assume the tenant asks for a $40,000 TI allowance. At first, the $40,000 may feel expensive. But if the owner rejects the deal and the space sits vacant for six more months, the owner may lose $48,000 in base rent alone. That does not include lost NNN reimbursements, maintenance, insurance, taxes, utilities, or the risk that the next tenant also asks for TI. That does not mean the owner should automatically say yes. It means the owner should compare the TI cost against the real cost of waiting. A strong retail location with multiple interested tenants may give the owner more leverage. A difficult vacancy with fewer qualified tenants may require a different strategy. The goal is not to be generous with TI. The goal is to make the decision that produces the best result after rent, time, risk, and capital are all considered. Think Like an Investor, Not Just a Landlord The best TI decisions come from treating the allowance as an investment. Before agreeing to the amount, ask: How much total capital am I investing? What lease income and term am I receiving in return? How strong is the tenant and the guaranty? What happens to my investment if the tenant defaults? What is the realistic cost and risk of staying vacant? These questions move the discussion away from whether a TI allowance is “normal” and toward whether the lease makes financial sense. That is where owners should focus. Final Thought A tenant improvement allowance is not automatically good or bad. It is an investment decision. Paying too much TI for weak lease economics can create unnecessary risk. Refusing reasonable TI and allowing a space to remain vacant can also hurt the property. The right answer depends on the rent, lease term, tenant strength, property condition, vacancy risk, and long-term value of the improvements. Before agreeing to TI, understand what you are investing, what you are receiving in return, and what happens if the lease does not go as planned. If a tenant asked you for a large TI allowance today, would you know how to determine whether it is a good investment or just an expensive way to fill a vacancy? In next week’s blog, “ How TI Allowances Are Paid and Why the Details Matter” , we will look at reimbursements, draw schedules, invoices, lien releases, cost overruns, and why the payment process should be clear before construction begins. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #RetailLeasing #TenantImprovements #TIAllowance #CREInvestment #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof July 31, 2026
Tractor Supply trims expansion; will close 75 Petsense stores Tractor Supply Co. reported a tough second quarter and reduced its outlook for the year. The nation’s largest rural lifestyle retailer cited “unusually adverse” conditions in May, which drove results below its expectations. On the earnings call, CEO Hal Lawton said fuel prices peaked during the height of its spring selling season, putting “meaningful” pressure on its customers' discretionary spending at the most important time of the quarter...
More Posts