Brace Yourself for 2023: Interest Rates, Payrolls & Your Wallet- A Twisted Tale Unravels!

Marc Perlof • July 18, 2023

Ever noticed how the pieces of a puzzle come together to paint a fascinating picture? Similarly, diverse economic factors such as job payroll reports, wage increases, and global economic indicators, all link together, painting a dynamic picture of our economy. With 2023 halfway through, it's high time we analyze this economic jigsaw and attempt to forecast the rest of the year's monetary milieu, particularly in the realm of interest rates.


The #JobPayrollReports, our first piece of the puzzle, have been encouraging, showing consistent growth in the number of paychecks issued over recent months. It's clear that businesses are hiring, and people are working—a positive sign of a thriving economy. But, it's essential to look beyond the surface and understand the underlying trends, which brings us to our next piece of the puzzle—#WageIncreases.


In the past, wage growth was slow, but we've seen a welcome change in 2023. Paychecks have been getting fatter, but does it mean more money in your pockets? Inflation and cost of living adjustments may have you thinking twice.


Then there are #GlobalEconomicIndicators. From China's industrial production to Germany's consumer confidence, these cues from around the world provide insight into the health of the global economy, which in turn influences our domestic economic environment.


Recent words from Federal Chairman Jerome Powell have set the financial world abuzz. His statements suggest that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these indicators to make informed decisions about future policy.


So, what about interest rates? Interest rates impact everything from your mortgage payments to your investment returns. Given the positive employment situation and increased wage growth, it would typically suggest an upward movement in interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve must also consider global economic indicators and domestic inflation, which could counterbalance these factors.


The question remains, are we about to see a significant shift in interest rates for the rest of 2023? Only time will tell, but this economic symphony certainly makes for an intriguing watch.


As we compile these economic pieces to form our 2023 jigsaw, it's clear that we are navigating through interesting times. The strengthening job market, encouraging wage increases, and global economic stability are all signs of a vibrant economy.


Yes, there may be potential rate hikes on the horizon, but remember, these are tools used to sustain the economy's health, ensuring long-term stability by keeping inflation in check. And in a dynamic economy, what might seem like a challenge today, can actually be an opportunity for tomorrow.


Even in the retail real estate sector, while potential interest hikes might increase borrowing costs, they can also motivate investors and landlords to innovate, optimize their portfolios, and explore new retail models.


In Jerome Powell's words and actions, we find a commitment to prudent and responsive economic management, continually adjusting to maintain the delicate balance that keeps our economy healthy and prosperous.


In essence, despite the ebbs and flows, the outlook for the rest of 2023 carries an undercurrent of optimism. It's a testament to our economy's resilience, its ability to adapt and thrive amid changing circumstances. As we move forward, this resilience will continue to shape our economic narrative, and therein lies our strength.


So, are you ready to stay ahead of the curve? Are you prepared for potential changes in the financial landscape?


Now that you've gained insight into the potential economic outlook for the rest of 2023, isn't it time to take action? Subscribe to our Weekly Perl email now and stay updated with the latest in the world of retail real estate, tailored just for you. Together, we can navigate the ever-changing economic landscape, one update at a time. DM me now because your financial retail real estate future awaits you. Let's embark on this journey together!



By Marc Perlof September 18, 2026
10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 ahead of Fed rate decision New York — The bond market sell-off is raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week and putting a spotlight on the central bank’s commitment to reining in inflation. Traders widely expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the first time since 2023. Traders are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate hike, according to CME FedWatch, a real-time forecasting tool...
By Marc Perlof September 14, 2026
By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 September 14, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Why CASp Reports Matter A Certified Access Specialist (CASp) report can help a California retail property owner understand accessibility issues before they become a bigger problem. It may identify concerns involving parking, paths of travel, entrances, doors, restrooms, signage, counters, slopes, and common areas. The value of a CASp report is clarity. It helps an owner understand what issues exist, what may need to be corrected, what may affect a lease or sale, and what requires legal guidance. But owners should be careful. A CASp report should not be ordered casually with no plan. If a report identifies issues and the owner does nothing, the owner may create a record of known problems without a strategy to address them. For retail property owners, the real value of a CASp report is not the report itself. It is reducing uncertainty before that uncertainty turns into buyer leverage, tenant demands, settlement pressure, or a lower sale price. What Is a CASp Report? A CASp inspection is performed by a trained accessibility professional who reviews a property for construction-related accessibility issues. For retail owners, a CASp report may review customer-facing areas such as parking, access aisles, ramps, walkways, entrances, doors, restrooms, counters, signage, slopes, and common areas. The exact scope depends on the property, the tenant use, and the purpose of the inspection. That matters because many owners do not know where the problems are until someone else points them out. That someone may be a plaintiff, attorney, tenant, buyer, lender, or inspector. Why Timing Matters Timing matters with CASp reports. In some situations, getting a CASp inspection before a claim may provide more options than waiting until after a lawsuit is filed. Owners should confirm the timing, legal effect, and any potential benefits with an Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) attorney before relying on a CASp report. This is one reason retail owners should think about accessibility before there is pressure. Before a lawsuit, sale, refinance, major lease negotiation, tenant turnover, or remodel, an owner may have more control. The owner can speak with an attorney, decide whether a CASp inspection makes sense, evaluate the findings, budget for work, and create a plan. After a lawsuit or during escrow, the owner may have less control. Deadlines are tighter. Buyers may use the issue as leverage. Tenants may resist responsibility. Repairs may need to be priced quickly. That is when unknown risk becomes expensive. Can a CASp Report Create a Problem? Yes, if the owner handles it poorly. A CASp report can be helpful, but it can also create pressure if it identifies issues and the owner ignores them. The problem is not the report itself. The problem is having knowledge of potential issues with no plan to address them. That is why owners should speak with an ADA attorney and a qualified accessibility professional before ordering inspections, making written statements, or starting repairs. The right sequence matters. Get the right guidance. Define the purpose of the report. Review the findings. Create a realistic plan for what can be corrected, what may need more review, and what should be documented. How CASp Reports Can Affect Property Value CASp reports can affect value because they reduce uncertainty. Buyers do not only look at rent, Net Operating Income (NOI), lease term, cap rate, and tenant strength. They also look at risk. If a buyer sees unresolved ADA concerns with no report, no explanation, and no plan, the buyer may assume the worst. That can lead to a lower offer, a repair credit, a price reduction, a holdback, a longer due diligence period, or stronger seller protections. A CASp report can help shift the conversation from guessing to facts. That does not mean every buyer will ignore the issue. It does not mean the property is perfect. But it can help the owner show that the issue has been reviewed and that there is a plan. In real estate, fear often creates bigger discounts than facts. If a repair costs $20,000, the owner wants the discussion to be about $20,000, not a buyer guessing the issue could cost $100,000. That is how clarity can protect value. How CASp Reports Can Affect Leasing CASp reports can also affect leasing. A restaurant, medical tenant, dental tenant, franchise operator, or service tenant may care about accessibility before signing a lease or opening for business. If the owner understands the property’s accessibility issues before lease negotiations, the owner can better decide what work belongs to the landlord, what work belongs to the tenant, and whether the issue should affect rent, tenant improvement money, free rent, or delivery condition. Without that information, the owner may negotiate blind. That can cost money. What Retail Property Owners Should Do Retail owners should not treat CASp reports as a box to check. They should treat them as part of a risk and value strategy. Speak with an ADA attorney before ordering reports or making written statements. Use a qualified CASp professional who understands commercial properties and retail access issues. Define the purpose and scope of the report before the inspection begins. Create an action plan for items that may need correction and consider how the findings could affect a sale, refinance, lease negotiation, or tenant relationship. The goal is to avoid surprises. A surprise during escrow can become a price reduction. A surprise during a lease negotiation can become extra landlord work. A surprise after a lawsuit can become settlement pressure. Final Thought A CASp report is not magic. It does not eliminate every risk, replace legal advice, or automatically protect property value. But it can give a retail property owner something valuable: clarity. For retail property owners, the real value of a CASp report is not just knowing what is wrong. It is knowing what to do next. If you are considering a CASp report before a lease, refinance, or sale, I can help you think through how the findings may affect value, timing, and buyer leverage. In next week’s blog, “Readily Achievable ADA Repairs: What Retail Property Owners Should Understand,” we will discuss why some accessibility fixes may be more manageable than owners think, how year built can matter, and why current property condition matters more than assumptions. Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide. #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #RetailPropertyOwners #ADACompliance #CASp #PropertyValue #CommercialProperty #MarcRetailGuy
By Marc Perlof September 11, 2026
Morning Consult: Five Below, other retailers among 25 fastest-growing brands Five Below is one of the fastest-growing brands in the U.S. The tween and teen extreme value retailer is the No. 10 fastest-growing brand overall and the only retailer to crack the top 10 in Morning Consult’s “Fastest Growing Brands 2026” report. The study ranks the top 25 brands according to year-over-year purchasing intent. A re-launched, decades-old soda brand, Mr. Pibb, ranked No. 1. Five Below’s purchasing consideration increased 3.2 points this year, according to the report. (The retailer recently reported that its second-quarter sales r ose 22.9% to $1.26 billion...)
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