Brace Yourself for 2023: Interest Rates, Payrolls & Your Wallet- A Twisted Tale Unravels!

Marc Perlof • July 18, 2023

Ever noticed how the pieces of a puzzle come together to paint a fascinating picture? Similarly, diverse economic factors such as job payroll reports, wage increases, and global economic indicators, all link together, painting a dynamic picture of our economy. With 2023 halfway through, it's high time we analyze this economic jigsaw and attempt to forecast the rest of the year's monetary milieu, particularly in the realm of interest rates.


The #JobPayrollReports, our first piece of the puzzle, have been encouraging, showing consistent growth in the number of paychecks issued over recent months. It's clear that businesses are hiring, and people are working—a positive sign of a thriving economy. But, it's essential to look beyond the surface and understand the underlying trends, which brings us to our next piece of the puzzle—#WageIncreases.


In the past, wage growth was slow, but we've seen a welcome change in 2023. Paychecks have been getting fatter, but does it mean more money in your pockets? Inflation and cost of living adjustments may have you thinking twice.


Then there are #GlobalEconomicIndicators. From China's industrial production to Germany's consumer confidence, these cues from around the world provide insight into the health of the global economy, which in turn influences our domestic economic environment.


Recent words from Federal Chairman Jerome Powell have set the financial world abuzz. His statements suggest that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these indicators to make informed decisions about future policy.


So, what about interest rates? Interest rates impact everything from your mortgage payments to your investment returns. Given the positive employment situation and increased wage growth, it would typically suggest an upward movement in interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve must also consider global economic indicators and domestic inflation, which could counterbalance these factors.


The question remains, are we about to see a significant shift in interest rates for the rest of 2023? Only time will tell, but this economic symphony certainly makes for an intriguing watch.


As we compile these economic pieces to form our 2023 jigsaw, it's clear that we are navigating through interesting times. The strengthening job market, encouraging wage increases, and global economic stability are all signs of a vibrant economy.


Yes, there may be potential rate hikes on the horizon, but remember, these are tools used to sustain the economy's health, ensuring long-term stability by keeping inflation in check. And in a dynamic economy, what might seem like a challenge today, can actually be an opportunity for tomorrow.


Even in the retail real estate sector, while potential interest hikes might increase borrowing costs, they can also motivate investors and landlords to innovate, optimize their portfolios, and explore new retail models.


In Jerome Powell's words and actions, we find a commitment to prudent and responsive economic management, continually adjusting to maintain the delicate balance that keeps our economy healthy and prosperous.


In essence, despite the ebbs and flows, the outlook for the rest of 2023 carries an undercurrent of optimism. It's a testament to our economy's resilience, its ability to adapt and thrive amid changing circumstances. As we move forward, this resilience will continue to shape our economic narrative, and therein lies our strength.


So, are you ready to stay ahead of the curve? Are you prepared for potential changes in the financial landscape?


Now that you've gained insight into the potential economic outlook for the rest of 2023, isn't it time to take action? Subscribe to our Weekly Perl email now and stay updated with the latest in the world of retail real estate, tailored just for you. Together, we can navigate the ever-changing economic landscape, one update at a time. DM me now because your financial retail real estate future awaits you. Let's embark on this journey together!



Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • August 1, 2025
Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl: Grocery's Power Trio The grocery segment has never been more competitive, and Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl have consistently emerged as top players. The three chains share similarities: all offer a limited assortment of groceries and tend to operate at lower price points – however, each one is carving out its own distinct path to growth...

California AB 380 Could Freeze Your Retail Rents—See the Loopholes Before It’s Too Late

By Marc Perlof • July 25, 2025
Hey Retail Real Estate Rockstars! Let’s talk about something important that’s happening in California: AB 380 . This new law was created because, after wildfires and disasters earlier this year, some landlords raised rents on small business tenants by up to 300%. Places like cafés, stores, and barbershops were hit hard. People got angry. The government stepped in.¹ AB 380 is a new rule that may stop landlords from raising rent too much during emergencies. It’s not a normal rent control law, but it does limit how much rent can go up when something like a wildfire or pandemic happens. What’s Happening Now? AB 380 already passed the California Assembly. Now it’s going through the State Senate. On July 8, 2025, the bill passed the Senate Public Safety Committee It’s now being reviewed by the Senate Appropriations Committee² After that, it will need to pass a full Senate floor vote The final vote may happen later this summer What Does AB 380 Do? If it becomes law, here’s what it would do: Stop rent increases over 10% during emergencies, like wildfires or floods¹ Apply to small businesses like cafés, hair salons, stores, and laundromats² Block landlords from raising rent to cover repairs during emergencies² Fine landlords up to $25,000 if they break the rule³ Which Tenants Are Protected? AB 380 helps small business tenants during hard times. It applies to: Local cafés, bakeries, and restaurants Retail shops, like phone stores or clothing boutiques Barbershops, dry cleaners, and gyms Doctors and other offices in retail spaces If they’re in a declared emergency zone, and you're negotiating new leases or renewals, the law caps rent increases at 10%—even if the old lease has expired.² Do Big Chains Get Protection Too? Yes, they do. Even if your tenant is a big-name business, like a fast food restaurant, pharmacy, grocery store, or national gym, the rule still applies. That’s because AB 380 covers all commercial tenants, not just small local shops. So if a franchise or national chain signs a lease or gets a rent increase during an emergency, that increase can’t go over 10%. This means landlords have to follow the same rule, whether the tenant is a local business or a major brand.¹ What AB 380 Does Not Do Here’s what the law doesn’t do: It does not create permanent rent control It only limits rent during emergencies After the emergency ends, landlords can raise rent as usual⁴ Already Have a Long Lease? If your lease already includes annual rent increases or CPI adjustments, AB 380 won’t affect it. The rule only applies to new leases or changes made during emergencies. So if your tenant signed a 5-year lease with 3% increases, those terms still count. Just make sure any new deals include rent bumps you can depend on. Wait—Does This Mean Year-Round Rent Control? No. That’s a common misunderstanding. AB 380 is not permanent rent control. It only kicks in during emergencies declared by the state or city. Once the emergency is over, you can go back to market rent, as long as your lease allows it.¹ ² What the Numbers Say Over 5,000 complaints were filed after the 2024 wildfires² Rent overcharges were over $21 million per month in some places⁴ Price gouging complaints rose 52% across California since 2021⁵ A Message for Retail Property Owners AB 380 could change how you do business when disaster strikes. But you still have options. The key is knowing the rules, planning ahead, and protecting your income. If you’re a retail property owner in California, AB 380 could block you from raising rent above 10% — even if your lease expires — during any declared emergency. That means you might miss out on thousands in rent increases unless your leases are written the right way. The smart move? Make sure your leases are crisis-proof so you can stay compliant and still protect your income. Call or DM me for more information. Think About This… If a disaster lasts for months and you can’t raise rent past 10%, how will you protect your cash flow and still stay within the law? #CaliforniaAB380 #PriceGouging #CommercialRentControl #RetailRealEstate #SmallBusinessRights 

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • July 25, 2025
CEO of American Realty Advisors elected to Downtown Santa Monica board Stanley Iezman has been elected to the board of Downtown Santa Monica, Inc. (DTSM), filling the vacant property owner seat left open after the resignation of longtime board member Julia Ladd. The results were announced Thursday by DTSM CEO Andrew Thomas, who praised the caliber of candidates and the level of engagement from the downtown property ownership community...
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