Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • April 4, 2025
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An aerial view of a yellow excavator digging in the dirt.

Governor Newsom suspends permitting rules, expands FEMA cleanup, extends ROE Deadline to April 15


California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed several executive order aimed at accelerating the rebuilding of fire-ravaged communities in Los Angeles County. A new order, announced on Thursday, March 27, suspends permitting and environmental review requirements to fast-track infrastructure repairs and prevent future wildfires.

A sign for the santa monica civic auditorium

City Approves Redevelopment Deal for Civic Auditorium


Officials said the next phase of the process includes site analyses to assess redevelopment viability

The Santa Monica City Council has taken a step toward revitalizing the long-shuttered Civic Auditorium, approving an Exclusive Negotiating Agreement with Revitalization Partners Group on Tuesday.

A chick-fil-a restaurant with a parking lot in front of it.

Chick-fil-A’s Sales Surpassed $22 Billion in 2024


While Chick-fil-A’s year-over-year sales growth wasn’t as robust as recent years, percentage wise, it continued to push unrivaled volumes at scale. In 2024, of the roughly 2,179 domestic franchised restaurants not located in malls (freestanding or drive-thru-only units), opened and operated for at least year a calendar year, the median annual sales volume was $9.227 million and the average annual sales volume $9.317 million, according to the brand’s FDD, which was released Wednesday.

An aerial view of a city skyline with a bridge over a river at sunset.

Retail rent gains slow as store closings provide more leasing options


Landlords still see elevated rent increases for spaces that turn over, just not at previous record levels

A person is typing on a laptop computer with a graph on the screen.

NRF predicts 2025 retail sales growth of 2.7% to 3.7%


The National Retail Federation said conditions remain relatively positive for consumer spending in 2025, and predicted that retail sales—excluding auto dealerships, gas stations, and restaurants—would grow between 2.7% and 3.7% this year. That compares with 3.6% retail sales growth in 2024.

A white truck is parked in front of an advance auto parts store

Investors favor small-dollar deals as large properties face rising vacancies


U.S. commercial property prices were mixed in February, with the amounts in high-dollar deals falling as those in the low-dollar range rose.

Tenant occupancy drove the swings in value, according to the latest monthly CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices. It tracks when a previously sold property trades hands again in a process called a repeat sale.

A small wooden house is sitting next to a pile of coins on a table.

How Proposed Tax Changes Could Affect Commercial Real Estate


With key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) set to expire, commercial real estate professionals must stay informed about potential tax policy shifts. Proposed changes under a new administration could significantly impact tax liabilities, investment strategies, and property development costs. 

A red and white sign for a winn dixie store

Winn-Dixie to close four Alabama stores


Winn-Dixie said it is planning to close four locations in Alabama in the coming weeks, following its confirmation last week that it also plans to close one store in Georgia.

A winco foods sign is on the side of a building

WinCo Foods said to plan first Colorado stores


WinCo Foods is planning its first locations in Colorado, according to local reports.

The company, which operates large, no-frills, warehouse-style stores known for their competitive prices, bulk foods, and broad assortments, has acquired property for two locations, one each in the towns of Thornton and Firestone, the reports said.

A dutch bros restaurant with a blue building

Dutch Bros to open 1,000 new shops by 2029; expands long-term goal to 7,000


Dutch Bros is getting even more bullish on store expansion. It's also entering the consumer packaged goods market.

The front of a joann handmade happiness store.

Available retail space increases for first time in two years


The recent stretch of store closings has pushed retail space availability to a new two-year high.

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....

How Rising Oil Prices and Job Losses Could Affect Retail Property Values in 2026

By Marc Perlof • March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates

Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

By Marc Perlof • March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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