Weekly Perl: A Commercial Real Estate News Recap

Marc Perlof • March 28, 2025
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A large white building with palm trees in front of it.

Duke’s Malibu Sends Message of Aloha After Mudslide Closure


Duke’s Malibu, a popular beachfront restaurant on the Pacific Coast Highway, has given us hope with a social media update on March 25 after online fears and rumors that the PCH institution might not return after all. 

Party city is closing all of its 700 stores

Map of the 27 Kohl's Stores Closing Across 15 States This Weekend


Kohl's is shutting down 27 stores across 15 states this weekend, a major downsizing move that reflects broader challenges in the U.S. retail sector. Newsweek previously reported that the closures are part of a strategic reevaluation as the company seeks to optimize its store footprint while expanding its partnership with Sephora.

A woman in a green jacket is sitting at a table with other people.

Mayor Bass Backtracking On Measure ULA Pause


Bass said at a March 11 press conference, in response to a question about fires, rebuilding and Measure ULA, that she was looking into pausing the real estate transfer tax. Bass briefly sketched out a possible path of action involving collaboration between the city council and her office.

A family dollar store with a red sign in front of it.

Dollar Tree to sell Family Dollar for $1 billion, a fraction of what it paid


Discount giant Dollar Tree is offloading Family Dollar at a bargain basement price, roughly $1 billion, after spending about a decade of unsuccessfully trying to turn around the chain and finally searching for a buyer.

Looking up at the roof of a waffle house restaurant

On Cusp of More Growth, a Conversation with Whataburger CEO Debbie Stroud


Whataburger has hardly been idle in its 75th year. Debbie Stroud, then EVP and COO, succeeded Ed Nelson as CEO to begin the calendar in January. The former SVP, U.S. retail operations at Starbucks, who also clocked 27 years with McDonald’s, joined Whataburger in 2023. Just this week, the company also named Todd Ewen CDO. Ewen, too, came over with McDonald’s experience, where he served a development director and real estate manager at the burger giant.

A white truck is parked in front of an advance auto parts store

Advance Auto Parts plans new stores after closing hundreds of locations


After closing hundreds of its stores to “optimize” its U.S. store footprint, Advance Auto Parts is ready to expand.

A big lots store with a parking lot in front of it

Silver lining from recent run of store closings: more available retail space


Space availability in the U.S. retail market has been incredibly tight in the past few years as the post-pandemic spending boom drove property demand to records while high construction costs and limited financing kept a lid on stores getting built. As a result, retailers have faced significant challenges in securing space for new stores, leading to fierce competition and rising rental rates.

A store front with a sign that says `` 50 % off entire store ''.

Forever 21’s Bankruptcy Could Be a Win for Mall Owners


Forever 21’s second bankruptcy in six years is set to trigger one of the biggest waves of store closures malls have seen in years. Yet, many mall owners view this as a chance to attract stronger tenants willing to pay higher rents and draw more foot traffic, according to the WSJ.

A large group of people are walking through a shopping mall.

Retail Rebounds, But Consumer Confidence Is Shakier Than Ever


In March 2020, as COVID-19 spread across the globe, retailers faced an unprecedented crisis. Nonessential stores shuttered, shopping habits shifted overnight, and supply chains became strained. While vaccines and government stimulus helped stabilize the economy, the pandemic negatively affected consumer behavior and the retail landscape, according to Retail Dive.

By Marc Perlof March 20, 2026
Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project Unveiled By City SANTA MONICA, CA — Following a nearly two-year public engagement process, the city has released a draft Framework Diagram for the Santa Monica Airport Conversion Project. "The Framework Diagram brings many ideas together to find common ground about what should go where and what types of uses belong in different areas of the site," the City of Santa Monica explained in a March 11 news release....
By Marc Perlof March 16, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 March 16, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Retail property owners are asking a simple question today. Is the market about to change? Several economic signals moved quickly over the past two weeks. Oil prices surged as conflict disrupted major energy supply routes. The U.S. job market also weakened unexpectedly during the same period. Financial markets have become more volatile as investors reassess economic risks. When oil prices rise and hiring slows, real estate investors begin adjusting risk assumptions. These adjustments often appear first in lender loan standards and buyer pricing. For retail property owners, these shifts can influence demand and property values. Owners of strip centers, shopping centers, store front retail, and NNN retail properties (multi-tenant and single tenant) should watch closely. Understanding these signals early can help protect property value and guide decisions. Market Analysis and Trends Energy markets reacted first. Brent crude oil recently surged above $100 per barrel. The increase followed conflict disrupting shipping routes and global oil supply.¹ Much of the concern involves the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply normally passes through this route. Even small disruptions there can quickly affect shipping costs and supply chains.¹ Consumers often feel the impact through gasoline prices. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices increased more than 15 percent. Prices reached roughly $3.47 per gallon in early March.¹ In Southern California, fuel prices are usually among the highest nationally. Drivers in the region are already paying significantly more at the pump. Higher fuel costs can quickly strain household budgets. This often reduces spending at restaurants and other nonessential retail businesses. The labor market also signaled caution. The U.S. economy lost about 92,000 jobs in February 2026. Unemployment rose to approximately 4.4 percent during the same period.² Slower hiring typically leads to reduced consumer spending several months later. When advising retail property owners, I track three important property risks. These include tenant margin pressure, lender loan standard changes, and buyer cap rate expectations. Key signals retail property owners should monitor include: Brent crude oil moving above $100 per barrel during Middle East supply disruptions.¹ U.S. gasoline prices rising more than 15% since late February.¹ The U.S. economy losing roughly 92,000 jobs in February while unemployment increased.² Essential Retail vs Nonessential Retail Retail categories respond differently during periods of economic stress. Essential retail includes grocery anchored centers, pharmacies, and daily service tenants. These businesses usually remain stable during economic disruptions. Consumers still need basic goods even when household budgets tighten.³ Nonessential retail categories are more sensitive to economic pressure. Restaurants, entertainment venues, and similar tenants often experience softer sales first. This usually happens when consumers reduce spending. For property owners, tenant mix becomes especially important during economic uncertainty. Centers anchored by essential tenants often remain more stable. Properties dominated by nonessential retail may experience greater sales volatility. Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners Economic uncertainty is a good time to review several property fundamentals. 1. Review tenant stability Evaluate tenant sales performance, credit strength, and upcoming lease expirations. 2. Monitor capital markets Lenders and investors may begin tightening loan standards as risks increase. 3. Evaluate sale timing carefully Markets sometimes offer short windows before buyer pricing adjusts to new conditions. Even a 1/4% to 1/2% increase in cap rates can affect property values. For example, a $6 million retail property valued at a 6% cap rate generates about $360,000 in annual income. If buyer expectations move to a 6.5% cap rate, value could fall near $5.5 million. If you own retail property and are wondering how these economic signals could affect buyer pricing or cap rates for your asset, this is exactly the type of analysis I help owners evaluate before making a sale or hold decision. If investor cap rates in your market moved just 1/2% higher, how much would the value of your retail property change? Investor Behavior During Uncertain Markets Market volatility often changes how investors evaluate retail properties. Research shows that investors prefer assets with stable income during uncertain periods. Properties with strong tenants and longer lease terms usually attract the most buyer interest.³ Assets with predictable cash flow often perform better during market uncertainty. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may face greater scrutiny. For retail property owners, tenant quality and lease structure matter even more in volatile markets. What This Means for Retail Property Owners Retail property values depend on more than location. Energy prices, employment trends, and capital markets also influence buyer demand. If oil prices stay elevated and hiring slows, investors may become more selective. Properties with weaker tenants or short lease terms may see pricing pressure first. Well located shopping centers with strong tenants and long leases usually remain more resilient. Owners who monitor these signals early often have more strategic options. If economic uncertainty continues over the next twelve months, how strong are the tenants in your retail property? #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #NNNProperties #ShoppingCenters #RetailPropertyOwners #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvestors #CREMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #CaliforniaRealEstate #LosAngelesRealEstate #CapRates
By Marc Perlof March 13, 2026
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in February as rents maintained a steady pace of increases, though households paid more for gasoline and at the supermarket and higher costs are in store because of the escalating war in the Middle East .  The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed underlying inflation muted ​last month, covered the period before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The attacks at the end of February were met with retaliation by Tehran and have boosted oil prices...
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