Jerome Powell Spills: What's Next for Retail Real Estate?

Marc Perlof • May 6, 2024

Hey Retail Real Estate Rockstars! Today, we’re diving into the latest updates from the Federal Reserve that could really shake up our retail real estate game. Jerome Powell, who leads the Federal Reserve, had a big meeting this past Wednesday, May 1, 2024. He shared some news that might change how you think about your next moves in the retail property market.

 

Market Analysis and Trends

We're moving through 2024, and it’s more important than ever to stay on top of what’s happening in retail real estate. Here’s what’s going on and how it could affect you.

 

Consumer Confidence and Retail Growth

Even though prices are going up, people are still shopping. This is great news for retail property owners because when people feel good about spending, they shop more, and that makes retail properties like malls and shops a hot ticket.

 

Shifts in Retail Formats

Shopping isn't just about buying stuff anymore; people want to have fun when they shop. Places that mix shopping with fun activities, like places where you can eat, watch movies, or play games, are becoming more popular.

 

Economic Growth Moderation

Jerome Powell mentioned that the economy isn't growing as fast as before—it went from growing a lot at 3.4% to growing a little at 1.6%. This slowdown might make people cautious about spending, which could mean fewer shoppers.

 

Consumer Spending Resilience

Even with the economy slowing down a bit, people are still buying things, which shows they still have money to spend. This is especially true for stores that sell things people need every day.

 

Stable Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates the same at between 5.25% and 5.5%. This means if you're thinking about getting a loan to buy or fix up a retail property, the cost won’t go up right now, which is good news.

 

Interest Rates and Economic Plans

Jerome Powell said they’re not planning to increase interest rates anytime soon. They want to keep them steady to help manage how much things cost and support the job market. This means they are being very careful and watching how things go, which could help the economy stay steady.

 

What This Means for You

If things cost more to make and sell, this could make it harder for stores in your properties to pay their rent. However, since people are still spending money, it could mean good business for stores that are in great spots or sell must-have items.

 

What’s Next?

The Federal Reserve is watching everything closely, which means they might make small changes if needed to keep everything balanced. This could mean a stable or slightly better situation for making money in retail properties.

 

How Can This Help You?

Want to make sure your retail real estate investments are ready for these changes? I'm here to help you figure out the best moves to make based on what's going on with interest rates and the economy. Call or DM me for more information and let's make a plan to grow your investments even in these changing times!

 

Let’s Talk!

What do you think about all this? How are you planning to adjust your investments in retail real estate? Drop your thoughts in the comments. Let’s chat and share ideas to help each other succeed in this exciting market.

 

#RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #MarcRetailGuy #RealEstateInvestment #EconomicInsights

By Marc Perlof September 12, 2025
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By Marc Perlof September 8, 2025
Hey, Retail Real Estate Rockstars! The Big Beautiful Bill (H.R. 1) has completely changed the rules for State and Local Taxes (SALT), which is great news for any property owner who has ever cringed when they see their tax bill. For those of you investing in retail real estate, this is the kind of victory that calls for a double espresso and a fresh pro forma. We're talking about actual tax relief in 2025. Let's dissect it. What Just Happened? The SALT deduction cap, once stuck at $10,000 per household, has officially increased to $40,000 for joint filers and $20,000 for single filers — but only between 2025 and 2029. After that, it’s back to the old cap unless Congress re-ups¹. Important Clarification for Property Owners While the IRS frames the new SALT cap in terms of individual filers ($20,000 single / $40,000 joint), the impact depends on how your retail property is owned: LLCs, Partnerships, and S-Corporations (Pass-Throughs): Income, expenses, and property taxes flow through to the owners’ personal returns. The higher SALT cap allows greater deductions here, boosting post-tax cash flow for the individual owners. Trusts & Estates: Similar pass-through treatment, meaning beneficiaries or trustees may capture the benefit depending on structure. C-Corporations: The SALT cap generally doesn’t apply, since corporate taxes are calculated differently and deductions follow corporate rules. REITs (Public or Private): REITs have their own tax regime, but shareholders who receive pass-through income may benefit at the individual level. Direct Individual Ownership: If you hold the property in your own name, property taxes fall directly under the SALT deduction rules. If you live in a high-tax state like California, New York, or New Jersey, this means you can deduct a lot more of your state income, property, and local sales taxes on your federal returns. Why Retail Property Owners Should Care More Deductible Property Taxes You can lower your taxable income on your federal return by deducting a larger portion of your high property taxes on retail assets. Boosts Post-Tax Cash Flow Increased deductions = less tax paid = more cash in your pocket. Offsets Reassessment or NNN CAM Spikes With inflation and property tax reassessments squeezing margins, this SALT cap increase gives you some room to breathe¹. Attractive to High-Income Buyers New investors seeking tax efficiency may find your retail property more alluring if you offer larger deductions. Strategic Planning Window: 2025–2029 These changes expire after 2029, so use this window wisely — structure sales, 1031 exchanges, or renovations when you can best leverage the deduction bump¹. Real Data, Real Impact The original SALT cap from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was projected to cost Californians alone over $12 billion in lost deductions annually². Nearly 30% of households in high-cost areas maxed out the previous SALT deduction limit². What About NNN Leases? Here’s the twist: if your property is on a triple-net (NNN) lease, your tenants — not you — pay the property taxes. For Landlords: The SALT cap change doesn’t directly benefit you, since you aren’t the one writing the property tax check. For Tenants: They may be able to deduct more of those property taxes on their federal returns, depending on how their business or personal tax filings are structured¹. Smart Move: Share this info with your tenants. Suggested Subject Line for Tenant Email: “You May Benefit from New Tax Deduction Rules (H.R. 1)” A simple note saying, “The new federal tax law (H.R. 1) increased the SALT deduction cap for 2025–2029. Since you pay property taxes under your NNN lease, this may be relevant for your tax planning. Please confirm with your CPA.” That small gesture positions you as knowledgeable, supportive, and proactive — which builds goodwill and strengthens tenant relationships. If you’re considering a sale, refinance, or exchange between now and 2029, let’s talk strategy while this deduction window is wide open #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #TaxStrategy #SALTdeduction #PropertyOwners
By Marc Perlof September 5, 2025
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