The U.S. can’t pay its bills? What That Really Means for Your Retail Property Value

Marc Perlof • April 6, 2026
By Marc Perlof | MarcRetailGuy 
CA #01489206

April 6, 2026

If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you.

The U.S. is not running out of money. But debt is rising and keeping interest rates higher. That is already pushing down retail property values. Higher government debt is keeping borrowing costs high, and that lowers your property value.

What Changed
What is happening?
A recent article from Yahoo Finance claims the U.S. is “insolvent” based on Treasury data.¹ The idea comes from comparing what the government owes to what it owns.

What is causing it?
The U.S. keeps spending more than it collects. Total debt keeps growing. At the same time, interest rates have gone up. That makes it more expensive for the government to borrow money.

This does not mean the U.S. cannot pay its bills. It means the system is under pressure. That pressure affects interest rates across the economy.

Why It Matters (Value Impact)
How does this affect your property value?
Retail property values are tied to income and cap rates. Cap rates follow the 10-year Treasury. When government debt keeps rates higher, cap rates stay higher.
Higher cap rates mean lower property values.

How are buyers underwriting this today?
Buyers are using higher borrowing costs in their numbers. They are also assuming they will sell at higher cap rates later. That lowers what they can pay today.

What happens if rates stay high?
Your income becomes more exposed. Expenses like insurance and maintenance keep rising. If rent does not keep up, your net income drops. Lower income plus higher cap rates equals lower value.

Strategic Advice for Retail Property Owners
What should you do right now?
Base decisions on today’s borrowing costs. Not past pricing. If you are selling, price to current cap rates. If you are holding, protect your income.

What should you review in your lease?
Look closely at what expenses you can pass through. Insurance, CAM, and repairs matter more now. If your lease does not fully protect your income, your value is already exposed.

What should you prepare for?
Plan for rates to stay higher longer. Build in margin for higher costs and slower leasing. Do not rely on rate cuts to fix your deal.

Real Deal Insight
Buyers are pricing retail deals today based on current debt costs and higher cap rate assumptions.

A recent strip center owner in Southern California expected pricing based on a 5.25% cap rate from prior comps. Today, buyers are underwriting closer to 6.25% to 6.75% due to higher debt costs and exit assumptions.
On a $1,000,000 NOI:
  • At 5.25% cap → value ≈ $19.0M 
  • At 6.50% cap → value ≈ $15.4M 
That is a ~$3.6M difference, without any change in income. This is the gap sellers and buyers are working through right now. Deals are getting done, but only when pricing reflects today’s cap rates and financing reality.

Market POV
Pricing is a moving target right now.
If you are thinking about selling or completing a 1031 exchange in 2026, looking at your property’s value sooner rather than later is optimal.

Waiting for rates to drop may not bring values back to prior peaks. Buyers are already adjusting to a higher rate environment, and pricing is resetting in real time.

Owner Self-Assessment
If you had to sell today, would your current income support today’s higher cap rates?

Market Data and Sources
  • U.S. federal debt is over $34 trillion and continues to grow.²
  • Interest on that debt is now one of the largest government expenses.³
  • The 10-year Treasury has been around the 4% range, well above prior lows.4

This shift is already showing up in pricing across Los Angeles retail deals today, and it is changing how buyers and sellers are negotiating in real time. If you own retail real estate in Los Angeles or Southern California, this is already showing up in pricing, negotiations, and deal structure across strip centers, shopping centers, and NNN assets.

If you own retail real estate, I can show you what your property is worth today based on current cap rates, buyer demand, and real underwriting.

Call or DM me for a current value analysis.

What happens to your property value if cap rates increase 0.5% to 1.0%?


Based in Los Angeles. Serving Southern California. Active across California. Advising clients nationwide.

#RetailRealEstate #NNNProperties #CapRates #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvesting #LosAngelesRealEstate #CREMarket #InvestmentProperty #StripCenters #ShoppingCenters #RealEstateStrategy

Sources

¹ Yahoo Finance, “Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent,” 2026

² U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data, 2025

³ Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Budget Outlook 2025–2035

⁴ U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates, 2025–2026


Disclaimer

This post is for information only. It is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Always check with a licensed professional before making decisions.



© 2026 Marc Perlof Group. All rights reserved.


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By Marc Perlof | @MarcRetailGuy CA #01489206 September 28, 2026 If you own retail real estate, here’s what just changed for you. Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) risk is not just a legal issue. It can become a pricing issue, a leasing issue, a buyer confidence issue, and a closing issue. For California retail property owners, accessibility concerns can affect value because buyers, tenants, lenders, and attorneys do not only look at income. They also look at risk. If that risk is unclear, they may ask for credits, repairs, holdbacks, price reductions, or stronger lease protections. That is the real “so what” for the owner. ADA issues do not always destroy value. But unmanaged ADA risk can reduce leverage. Reduced leverage can reduce value. Why ADA Risk Becomes a Value Issue Retail property value is usually based on income, lease quality, tenant strength, location, condition, and risk. ADA risk fits into several of those categories. If a property has unresolved accessibility issues, the buyer may not know the true cost. The issue may be small. It may be large. It may involve the tenant. It may involve common areas. It may require permits. It may delay leasing. It may create future claims. When buyers do not know the answer, they usually protect themselves. That protection may come in the form of a lower offer, a repair credit, a price reduction, an escrow holdback, a longer due diligence period, or stronger seller representations. That is how ADA risk moves from a legal issue to a value issue. The cost of the repair may be one number. The buyer’s fear may be a much larger number. How Buyer Uncertainty Can Reduce Price Buyers do not like unknown problems. A buyer may accept a known issue if the cost is clear and the path forward is reasonable. For example, if an accessibility repair is estimated at $20,000, the buyer and seller can discuss that number directly. But if the buyer sees unresolved ADA concerns with no report, no plan, no cost estimate, and no explanation, the buyer may assume the issue is worse. That can hurt the seller. A $20,000 issue can become a $75,000 pricing discussion if the buyer believes there may be hidden risk, future claims, tenant disputes, or closing delays. This does not mean every buyer is right. It means uncertainty gives the buyer leverage. The seller’s job is to reduce uncertainty before the buyer uses it. How ADA Risk Can Affect NOI ADA risk can affect NOI when it changes the economics of a lease or ownership decision. If a tenant requests landlord work, more tenant improvement money, free rent, rent reduction, delayed rent commencement, or repair obligations because of accessibility concerns, the financial impact may show up in the income stream. Lower income can mean lower value. For example, if an owner gives extra free rent or absorbs improvement costs to address accessibility issues, that cost may not appear as a simple repair line item. It may show up as reduced NOI, lower effective rent, or weaker lease economics. That matters because buyers underwrite actual income, future income, and risk. An ADA issue that affects lease terms can affect value even if there is no lawsuit. How ADA Risk Can Affect Leasing ADA risk can also affect tenant negotiations. Restaurants, medical tenants, dental tenants, franchise operators, service tenants, fitness users, coffee shops, and other public facing tenants may care about access before they open. They may review parking, paths of travel, entrances, restrooms, counters, seating areas, signage, and common areas. If the tenant sees a problem, the tenant may ask the landlord to solve it before rent starts. 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The buyer may ask for a price credit or holdback. The seller may lose momentum. This is why sellers should not wait until escrow to understand obvious accessibility issues. If an owner plans to sell, the owner should evaluate the property early enough to understand what may come up. The owner does not need to promise perfection. But the owner should know the facts. A seller with facts has more control. A seller without facts gets negotiated against. How Disclosure and Documentation Matter Documentation matters because buyers want to know what happened, what was corrected, and what remains. If there was an ADA claim, settlement, CASp report, or repair plan, the owner should speak with counsel about what should be disclosed and how it should be presented. This is not something owners should handle casually. Poor communication can create more problems. Overstating compliance can create risk. Hiding known issues can create risk. Sharing reports without context can create risk. 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The plan may include repairs, budgeting, tenant coordination, lease language, disclosure strategy, or timing decisions. The goal is not to eliminate every possible risk. The goal is to reduce surprises and protect leverage. Common Questions Retail Owners Ask Can ADA issues lower the value of a retail property? Yes. ADA issues can lower value if they create repair costs, buyer uncertainty, tenant demands, sale delays, credits, or price reductions. Is the repair cost the only value impact? No. The bigger impact may come from uncertainty, lost leverage, weaker lease economics, or buyer fear. Should owners fix every issue before selling? Not always. Owners should get legal and accessibility guidance, understand the cost, and decide whether to repair, disclose, budget, or negotiate around the issue. Final Thought ADA risk affects value when it creates uncertainty. For retail property owners, the issue is not only whether the property has accessibility concerns. 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